{"id":575134,"date":"2026-02-16T06:23:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T06:23:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/575134\/"},"modified":"2026-02-16T06:23:25","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T06:23:25","slug":"cade-horton-is-being-brutalized-by-pessimistic-2026-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/575134\/","title":{"rendered":"Cade Horton is being brutalized by pessimistic 2026 projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Chicago Cubs had a tremendous season last year, all things considered. They made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won their first playoff games since 2017.<\/p>\n

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Although the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers would have an insane year to snatch the NL Central Division and those same Brewers would eliminate the Cubs from the NLDS after Chicago made a true grit comeback from a 0-2 start to the series, 2025 had to be seen as a great success story.<\/p>\n

One of the most feel-good of the Cubs\u2019 positives last season was the emergence of top pitching prospect Cade Horton and the incredible run he had in his first season in the majors.<\/p>\n

The 24-year-old was not even supposed to be with the big league squad in 2025, but was forced up from Iowa when Shota Imanaga went on the IL with a hamstring injury.<\/p>\n

Horton performed well enough in his first tour of big league duty, but then he REALLY took off.<\/p>\n

The mind-boggling rise of Cade Horton
\n\"MLB:MLB: Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays Aug 13, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton (22) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

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The Cubs\u2019 2022 no. 1 draft pick dazzled over the second half of the season, going 8-1 and posting an incredible 1.03 ERA in twelve starts after the All-Star break. In that stretch of time, he was, arguably, the best pitcher in all of baseball, eventually earning him an 11-4 record with a 2.67 ERA on the season and a second place finish in Rookie of the Year voting.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately for the Cubs, a fractured rib in late September would put Horton on the shelf and keep him from postseason play. His absence from the Cubs\u2019 playoff run presents one of the great \u201cwhat ifs\u201d regarding the 2025 campaign.<\/p>\n

But for those hoping to see Horton have anywhere near that same level of success in 2026, MLB analysts have some bad news.<\/p>\n

Horton projected to have a humbling 2026
\n\"ChicagoSep 23, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Cade Horton (22) throws against the New York Mets during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

The various MLB projection systems are unanimous in their belief<\/a> that the incoming sophomore pitcher will have a significantly more humble showing in 2026.<\/p>\n

Fangraphs has Horton finishing with a 4.12 ERA on the season. ZiPS has him with a 3.89 ERA. Steamer has him coming in with an ERA between 4.34-4.55. Fantasy Pros, meanwhile, is the most optimistic with a 3.78 ERA projection.<\/p>\n

Brent Maguire of MLB.com<\/a> recently explained some of the pessimism regarding Horton:<\/p>\n

\u201cCade Horton\u2026just had an excellent rookie campaign, in which he ran a 2.67 ERA across 118 innings and finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. There\u2019s no denying that the young starter and former top prospect has a frontline starter upside, but there are obvious areas he needs to improve. Most ERA indicators, like FIP (3.58), expected FIP (4.27) and expected ERA (3.88), pegged him for much higher ERAs, largely stemming from a 33rd percentile strikeout rate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Projection systems smack the Cubs hard
\n\"ChicagoApr 1, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Justin Steele (35) looks on after throwing a pitch against the Athletics during the second inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

The projection systems haven\u2019t been kind to the Cubs as a whole, though. ZiPs, for example, described the deep Cubs rotation as \u201cdeep in meh and unexcitement.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dan Szymborski, the developer of the computer-based ZiPS projection system, explained his system\u2019s projection of mediocrity<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cZiPS sees the Cubs as having a very deep rotation that\u2019s also very deep in unexcitement. There\u2019s certainly some upside here, especially in Edward Cabrera, but ZiPS largely views the team as having a whole lot of broadly average starting pitching options. The good news here is that if Justin Steele has any setbacks, ZiPS likes the team\u2019s replacement options. Even with especially bad luck in the injury department, the computer thinks Javier Assad will be adequate \u2014 it has him with an ERA considerably lower than his FIP, though some of that is thanks to the stellar Cubs defense \u2014 and that Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks would both be far more acceptable as starters if called into duty than they\u2019ve shown so far. Heck, if Colin Rea or even Connor Noland were forced into starting some games, that wouldn\u2019t be an apocalyptic scenario for the Cubs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Horton, however, has shown the ability to be absolutely electric. His command, his pitch execution, and his daring as a rookie were elite-tier for much of the 2025 season. Realistically, even if he takes a full step backwards in 2026, he\u2019ll still be a front-of-rotation starter\u2013 in a packed rotation where team success doesn\u2019t necessarily depend on a single pitcher\u2019s success.<\/p>\n

\"MLB<\/p>\n

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