Every Pittsburgh Pirates fan is looking forward to Konnor Griffin\u2019s arrival. He is Major League Baseball\u2019s consensus number one prospect and was outstanding in 2025. He started the year at A-Ball Bradenton and ended the year at Double-A Altoona. Expectations are high, but FanGraphs\u2019 ZiPS projections aren\u2019t particularly bullish on his hitting. They see him having a solid, but unimpressive year at the plate, which is a very big underestimation of what he is capable of.<\/p>\n
League Average Production, but Big Time Potential?<\/p>\n
ZiPS sees him producing about league-average numbers. They have Griffin slashing .261\/.328\/.398 with a .319 wOBA. For reference, last year\u2019s league average triple-slash was .254\/.315\/.404 with an average wOBA of .313. ZiPS has Griffin putting up just a 102 wRC+. That means that he\u2019d only be two percent better than league average after factoring in park factors and the league environment. Joey Bart<\/a> posted a 101 wRC+ for comparison.<\/p>\n His fWAR is projected at around +3.0, so most of Griffin\u2019s value would be derived from his baserunning and fielding. He is excellent in these two parts of his game. But Griffin is still rated at 60 hit and 70 power by Baseball America on the 20-80 scale. According to BA\u2019s 20-80 measurables, a 60-grade hit tool is a .275-.294 hitter. 70-grade power 34-39 home run hitter. That\u2019s akin to production like Nick Kurtz<\/a> in 2025, or Jose Ramirez<\/a> and Brent Rooker<\/a> in 2024.<\/p>\n Other Prospects Are Getting Better Treatment<\/p>\n If that all seems low, you wouldn\u2019t be mistaken. Similar top prospects have much better ZiPS projections. The consensus number two prospect in baseball, Kevin McGonigle from the Detroit Tigers, is projected to slash .254\/.329\/.442 with a .333 wOBA, and 114 wRC+. JJ Wetherholt is projected to have a slightly better wRC+ than Griffin, coming in at 103. Samuel Basallo<\/a> of the Baltimore Orioles is projected to bat .238\/.304\/.457 with a 111 wRC+. Even Owen Caissie<\/a>, who had a 27.9% strikeout rate and isn\u2019t even a consensus top 40 prospect, has the same projected wRC+ by ZiPS at 102. While that\u2019s no knock on any of these prospects, Griffin arguably had a better minor league season than all of them, and there\u2019s no denying he is ranked higher than any of them.<\/p>\n ZiPS has given previous #1 prospects some very kind projections. In 2023, Gunnar Henderson<\/a> was projected as a 23-home run hitter with a 123 OPS+. Before 2022, ZiPS had Adley Rutschman<\/a> putting up a 115 OPS+. Vlad Guerrero Jr.<\/a> was originally projected to also put up a 123 OPS+ in 2019 by ZiPS. Guerrero is also the last right-handed hitter to rank #1 on Baseball America\u2019s top prospect list (not including Roki Sasaki<\/a>).<\/p>\n Outright Insulting Comparisons<\/p>\n The near-age hitting comps are plain insulting. ZiPS\u2019 number one hitting comp to Griffin is Franklin Barreto<\/a>. Barreto was the headliner who went to the Oakland Athletics in the deal that sent Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays. Barreto only ever had 237 plate appearances and a 45 wRC+. His second comparison is Andres Gimenez<\/a>. Gimenez is an outstanding fielder, but has a career wRC+ of 98. His third and final comparison is Alex Gonzalez<\/a>, a former glove-first middle infielder with a 78 wRC+.<\/p>\n