{"id":584833,"date":"2026-02-21T13:34:19","date_gmt":"2026-02-21T13:34:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/584833\/"},"modified":"2026-02-21T13:34:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-21T13:34:19","slug":"rotation-bullpen-or-nashville-analytically-breaking-down-aaron-ashbys-arsenal-brewers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/584833\/","title":{"rendered":"Rotation, Bullpen, or Nashville: Analytically Breaking Down Aaron Ashby\u2019s Arsenal – Brewers"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tAaron Ashby<\/a> is entering his fifth year in Milwaukee and has been an above-average pitcher for the Brewers, posting career numbers of 114 ERA+ and a FIP of 3.46. Let\u2019s say, for the sake of argument, that Nashville is not a realistic option, as in, \u2018he\u2019s too good to send down.\u2019 Where will he fit into Milwaukee\u2019s plans?\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAshby was a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft out of Crowder College in Neosho, Missouri, and made good progress through the Brewers chain, arriving in Milwaukee in just his third year, and has been a solid contributor ever since.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe Brewers have two main questions with their pitching staff: who is going to start, and who is going to stay in Milwaukee?\n<\/p>\n

\n\tLet\u2019s answer the first question. Currently, the Brewers have six southpaws that have the versatility to make the rotation or pitch out of the pen. Newcomers Kyle Harrison<\/a> and Shane Drohan<\/a> came over in the Caleb Durbin<\/a> trade from Boston, joining Robert Gasser<\/a>, Angel Zerpa<\/a>, DL Hall<\/a>, and Ashby. All these guys could potentially join the rotation, or they could reside in the pen.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tBack in 2022, Ashby made 19 starts for Milwaukee. He averaged nearly five innings per start, striking out at a high rate of 26.2%, but unfortunately, his 10.4% walk rate was pretty bad. Last year in 43 appearances (including one opener game) he whiffed 28.1% while improving a little on his walk rate, dropping it to 8.9%.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAshby began spring training last year as a starter but suffered an oblique injury and missed the first third of the season. When he came back, he was inserted into a regular bullpen role, pitching in all leverage situations.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tRealistically, Quinn Priester<\/a>, Brandon Woodruff<\/a>, Chad Patrick<\/a>, and Jacob Misiorowski<\/a> are front-runners for the first four starting spots. Logan Henderson<\/a> and Brandon Sproat<\/a> are on the periphery. They are all right-handers. Add to that Harrison, Gasser, Ashby, Zerpa, Hall, and Drohan, and you have nearly a baker\u2019s dozen of arms to choose from. Some will get injured, some will underperform, and before you know it, the Brewers could be scrambling to cobble a rotation together. Let\u2019s hope that doesn\u2019t happen.\n<\/p>\n

\tAaron Ashby’s Stuff<\/p>\n

\n\t\"image.png\"\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAshby depends heavily on his sinker, which he throws over 50% of the time, and backs it up with his curveball, which he throws once every four pitches. His most effective pitch is his curveball, which has a 7.6″ drop, more than the major league average. It produced 27 strikeouts for a K rate of 47%. His slider has big movement as well, 9″ more than the major league average. Ashby has changed his arm angle over the years, going from high-three-quarters in 2022 when he was a starter to a more over-the-top guy last year with an arm angle of 51%.\n<\/p>\n

\tAaron Ashby’s Pitch Arsenal<\/p>\n

\n\t\"image.png\"\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAshby uses his sinker and curve three-quarters of the time overall, while using his changeup at a 12% rate, while the slider (8%) and four-seam (2%) are the lesser-used pitches in his repertoire. He relies more on the sinker to lefty hitters (58%) and doubles the slider offering up to 18%. When facing righties, the slider and the four-seam go in the back pocket (5% total) while the curve and slider come out half the time, along with the old reliable sinker at 47%. That sinker gets beat into the dirt more often than not (62%), and with an infield like the Brewers have, that is a good thing.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tYear<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tPitch Type<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t#<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t# RHB<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t# LHB<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t%<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tMPH<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tPA<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tAB<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tH<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1B<\/p>\n

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\t\t\t\t3B<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tHR<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tSO<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tBBE<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tBA<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\txBA<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tSLG<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\txSLG<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\twOBA<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\txwOBA<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tEV<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tLA<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tSpin<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tExt.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tWhiff%<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tPutAway%<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2025<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tSinker<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t530<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t305<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t225<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t51.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t97.5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t136<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t119<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t29<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t24<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t21<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t101<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.244<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.259<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.328<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.354<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.291<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.311<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t90.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t-1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2151<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t16.4<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t22.8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2025<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tCurveball<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t273<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t192<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t81<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t26.4<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t82.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t57<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t49<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t7<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t27<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t22<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.143<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.150<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.184<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.185<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.219<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.225<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t88.0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2737<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t43.9<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t34.6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2025<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tChangeup<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t122<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t120<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t11.8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t91.4<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t38<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t35<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t10<\/p>\n

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\t\t\t\t3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

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\t\t\t\t.250<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.429<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.353<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.325<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.282<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t89.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t4<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1902<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t31.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t25.0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2025<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tSlider<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t84<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t14<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t70<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t8.1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t84.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t31<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t28<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

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\t\t\t\t11<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.214<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.140<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.321<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.242<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.277<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.218<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t76.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2661<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t51.5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t29.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2025<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tFour Seamer<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t24<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t17<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t7<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t96.9<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t7<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.286<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.189<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.286<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.207<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.307<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.243<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t78.8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t-12<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2263<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t28.6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t11.8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2024<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tSinker<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t216<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t136<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t80<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t44.6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t96.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t56<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t49<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t12<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t9<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t42<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.245<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.211<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.347<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.327<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.297<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.297<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t90.4<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2120<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t12.6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t15.1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2024<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tChangeup<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t99<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t91<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t20.5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t88.8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t27<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t23<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t4<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t20<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.217<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.252<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.478<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.422<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.337<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.339<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t86.5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1775<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t36.4<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t13.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2024<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tCurveball<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t93<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t77<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t16<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t19.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t82.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t14<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t14<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t9<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.071<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.161<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.071<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.241<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.063<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.174<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t94.6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t-5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2636<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t42.9<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t34.6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2024<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tSlider<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t66<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t26<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t40<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t13.6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t83.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t19<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t18<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t12<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.111<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.138<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.167<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.277<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.149<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.201<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t85.6<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t9<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2541<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.2<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t43.8<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t35.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2024<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tFour Seamer<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t10<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t9<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2.1<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t96.9<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.000<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.155<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.000<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.467<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.000<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t.255<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t95.4<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t32<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t2214<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t5.3<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0.0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t0.0<\/p>\n

\tWhat Should Aaron Ashby’s Role Be in 2026?<\/p>\n

\n\tIn his major league career, Ashby has appeared in 97 games, of which 26 were starts. He started 66 times in the minors among his 95 appearances, so he definitely has the chops to fit into the rotation. Given the heavy right-handed presence in the tentative rotation, manager Pat Murphy<\/a> will probably be looking to insert one southpaw into that mix.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe question is: which of the groups listed above will be that left-hander? I would put Harrison or Gasser at the top of that list, but given an underperformance and the likelihood of an injury or two, you might as well flip a coin or roll the dice to decide.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tNo matter where he ends up, Ashby will play a huge role for the Brewers in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Aaron Ashby is entering his fifth year in Milwaukee and has been an above-average pitcher for the Brewers,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":584834,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2401],"tags":[2131,5,136,1603,843,59,4280,4,1454],"class_list":{"0":"post-584833","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-milwaukee-brewers","8":"tag-aaron-ashby","9":"tag-baseball","10":"tag-brewers","11":"tag-bullpen","12":"tag-milwaukee","13":"tag-milwaukee-brewers","14":"tag-milwaukeebrewers","15":"tag-mlb","16":"tag-starting-rotation"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116108885443526352","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=584833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/584834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=584833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=584833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=584833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}