In the seven-player trade that sent Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, a young 25-year-old named Randy V\u00e1squez went from being the No. 13 prospect in the Yankees\u2019 system to a backend starter in San Diego.<\/p>\n
Now, after achieving surprisingly good results last season, V\u00e1squez is projected to occupy the Padres\u2019 fourth spot in the starting rotation. But what\u2019s his ceiling? Is what we saw from him last year permanent or was it just a flash in the pan?<\/p>\n
Early struggles seemed to stay<\/p>\n
V\u00e1squez began as a starter in the minor leagues for New York, but saw minimal starting opportunities with the big-league club, being used more as a reliever who covered multiple innings. That system worked well in 2023, a year that saw him finish with a 2.87 ERA across 37 \u2154 innings.<\/p>\n
However, when V\u00e1squez transitioned to a full-time starting role in San Diego he struggled mightily. He had a career high WHIP in 2024 (1.51) and, when his pitches did find the zone, they were crushed (.304 opponent batting average).<\/p>\n
The combination of these two factors made it seem like V\u00e1squez would be more of a depth option in 2025 than a regular starter. But when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery in October \u201824, the Padres needed someone to fill innings. They gave the ball to V\u00e1squez and, boy, did he outperform expectations.<\/p>\n
2025 was the best year of V\u00e1squez\u2019s career and it\u2019s not even close. He finished with a 3.84 ERA in 26 starts and brought his WHIP down to 1.32 and opponent batting average to (a much more respectable) .247.<\/p>\n
Plus, he offered something that San Diego desperately needed down the stretch: durability. Amidst injuries from Michael King and inconsistency from Dylan Cease, V\u00e1squez managed to cover a career-high 133 \u2154 innings for the club.<\/p>\n
Strangely enough, that didn\u2019t stop V\u00e1squez from being pulled from games early by former manager Mike Shildt. The club never seemed to trust him to get out of difficult situations, taking him out of more than a few games the moment he encountered trouble.<\/p>\n
Hopefully he\u2019ll get a longer leash from new skipper Craig Stammen than he did with Shildt.<\/p>\n
All of this sounds great. Why would V\u00e1squez be unable to capitalize on his success? The problem is that his expected stats in \u201825 were all much worse than his actual ones (5.37 xERA compared to 3.84 ERA).<\/p>\n
To put it simply, V\u00e1squez was lucky. But he also wasn\u2019t. He had a career-high ground ball percentage of 40.1%, making sure that any contact he allowed resulted in an easy out at first base.<\/p>\n
V\u00e1squez\u2019s start to spring<\/p>\n