Brycen Mautz is a hard player to place, because scouts don\u2019t really seem to believe in him, believe that he has enough good pitches to start, and yet statistically speaking, it seems hard not to believe in him. In a hitter friendly league, he struck out over 28% of batters, didn\u2019t walk many, and had a reasonable groundball rate. His only real flaw was he allowed a few extra homers over what you\u2019d like, but I refer you back to the hitter friendly league. He\u2019ll be 24 in AAA and on the doorstep of the majors. He\u2019s also on the 40, so if he performs, we\u2019ll probably see him in the majors this year. Here is the list right now:<\/p>\n
JJ WetherholtLiam DoyleRainiel RodriguezQuinn MathewsJurrangelo CjintjeJoshua BaezLeonardo BernalJimmy CrooksBrandon ClarkeTink HenceTekoah RobyTanner FranklinBrycen Mautz<\/p>\n
Today, we\u2019re tackling two players who will be in Memphis in the upcoming season (well probably in one player\u2019s case) and yet few expect to actually make much of a difference in 2026. Both have at one time been considered legit prospects and have fallen out of favor for different reasons. They differ in that one is an outfielder who can maybe play center and the other is a first basemen that can maybe play third.<\/p>\n
Chase Davis had a 105 wRC+ in Springfield, although it came with an elevated K rate and not much power. Fangraphs gives him a 55 future grade on his defense so it is within the realm of possibility that he comes a defense-first player. But it\u2019s defense in the minor leagues, so who knows. He will be 24<\/p>\n
Blaze Jordan had a 167 wRC+ in AA on his third attempt at the level, getting promoted by June to AAA. While he played reasonably well initially, his numbers tanked as a Cardinal and he ended up with an 83 wRC+ in AAA for the season. He will not strike out nor walk very much, so the question is how much power he\u2019ll have at next level. He will be 23.<\/p>\n
If you had told me that I\u2019d add Chen-Wei Lin into the polling on the 14th vote, I would have expected people to have been clamoring for him to be on the voting at least a little bit. But nobody has complained. I even put him in the comparable player poll, so it\u2019s not like he was forgotten. Anyway, I thought it was about time for last year\u2019s #11 prospect to be on the voting, despite somewhat of a down year.<\/p>\n
Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244\/.327\/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting (FG): 30\/45 Hit, 35\/50 Game Power, 50\/55 Raw Power, 40\/40 Speed, 40\/45 Fielding<\/p>\n
The biggest weakness, near as I can tell, is that Baez is immature. He is also about to be 21-years-old. I\u2019ll be very interesting to see how Baez pans out specifically because I kind of want to know how much weight to put on when a scout like Keith Law essentially goes after his character. It\u2019s one sample, so I shouldn\u2019t use his example for all prospects like him but nonetheless I really am not sure how to handle it.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 129 PAs, .336\/.380\/.563, 6.2 BB%, 7.8 K%, .227 ISO, .327 BABIP, 157 wRC+, 136 DRC+<\/p>\n
AAA: 242 PAs, .335\/.400\/.521, 9.9 BB%, 10.3 K%, .186 ISO, .338 BABIP 144 wRC+, 132 DRC+<\/p>\n
MLB: 65 PAs, .179\/.254\/.250, 4.6 BB%, 27.7 K%, .071 ISO, .237 BABIP, 46 wRC+, 78 DRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting: 55\/55 Hit, 35\/35 Game Power, 40\/40 Raw Power, 55\/55 Speed, 45\/45 Field<\/p>\n
Will Nathan Church get the spring training boost after hitting a homer? If that exists, I imagine one plate appearance probably isn\u2019t doing it. But it will be curious to see if spring training does in fact impact how people vote. Ignore the 45 fielding rating, that seems to be really outdated, can\u2019t imagine they\u2019ve seen Church field recently or\u2026 look at his numbers? I don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n
Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19<\/p>\n
Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA\/2.41 FIP\/3.29 xFIP<\/p>\n
Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA\/2.50 FIP\/3.14 xFIP<\/p>\n
Scouting: 40\/45 Fastball, 55\/60 Slider, 30\/50 Change, 35\/50 Command<\/p>\n
Roster Resource currently lists Fajardo in Low A, which I assume is because of his age. He certainly played well enough to get promoted though. But it also might just be because someone has to pitch in Low A. The amount of starting pitching prospects who could pitch in High A to begin the season is a greater number than can actually start in High A at the beginning. Or so I would think. I expect him there soon enough in any case and expect him to throw a lot of his innings at High A.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA\/3.16 FIP\/4.00 xFIP\/4.51 DRA<\/p>\n
Scouting: 50\/60 Fastball, 45\/50 Slider, 30\/40 Change, 40\/45 Cutter, 40\/50 Command<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve mentioned this before and I don\u2019t know how accurate the scouting is, but I am surprised his pitch profile supports a potentially great reliever if this starting thing doesn\u2019t work out. I viewed him from the outside as similar to a Max Racjcic, where he might be a long reliever, but it doesn\u2019t seem like high leverage is in his future. But a 60 potential fastball with a 50 potential slider is a strong 1-2 punch, especially with command. And sometimes all you need is a strong 1-2 punch in the bullpen to be great.<\/p>\n
Scouting: 55\/55 Fastball, 55\/60 Slider, 50\/50 Change, 45\/50 Cutter, 45\/50 Command<\/p>\n
I hesitate to say this about a pitcher drafted in 2022 who has a career professional high of 52 innings, but he had his Tommy John surgery in April of last year, so he should be able to pitch quite a bit this year. With a normal recovery, you\u2019d think he would be able to match his career high in professional innings. He is on the 40 man roster, so a good recovery and we might see him this year. Totally makes sense why you wouldn\u2019t trust this though.<\/p>\n
Stats (Low A): 12 GS, 38.2 IP, 27.2 K%, 17.2 BB%, 50 GB%, .283 BABIP, 4.89 ERA\/3.69 FIP\/4.17 xFIP<\/p>\n
High A: 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 41.7 K%, 18.8 BB%, 50 GB%, .412 BABIP, 9.31 ERA\/4.80 FIP\/2.76 xFIP<\/p>\n
What a crazy season. Limited by injuries – you\u2019ll notice the innings per start is pretty low – he struggled with control all season. Walked a lot of guys. But he also struck out a lot of guys and I actually find it crazy that he struck out 20 of the 48 batters he faced in Springfield. Other things went wrong, but that\u2019s a lot of strikeouts. I\u2019d like his stats a lot more if he had thrown 5 innings per start.<\/p>\n
I do not have stats to share with you – I\u2019m sure I can find high school stats, but they aren\u2019t a lot of use on this kind of list. It doesn\u2019t appear Fangraphs has given him scouting grades, I can\u2019t find MLB Pipeline (and I don\u2019t like how they give grades anyway, too high generally). I have access to Baseball Prospectus\u2019 top 20, and while they don\u2019t give Mitchell a scouting grade, I thought just sharing their blurb would suffice:<\/p>\n
\u201cMitchell, a toolsy overslot second-rounder, didn\u2019t play after the draft. For much of his high school career, he would rotate so early that he was more or less standing up when making contact, but his swing became one of the most fun to watch in the class. He dips down a bit and explodes from the lower half. There is some risk he won\u2019t be able to get around against higher velocity fastballs, but his contact rates on the circuit were adequate, and there\u2019s enough athleticism, present bat speed, and physical projection to expect some power. Defensively, he has good actions but could be forced to second base in pro ball. There aren\u2019t any elite tools here, but he presents a pretty well-rounded infield profile and had an arrow up coming into the draft.\u201d<\/p>\n
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285\/.406\/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+<\/p>\n
High A: 130 PAs, .336\/.438\/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve been through this. Only so many ways I can say the same thing. Ortiz does not have scouting, because Fangraphs does not consider him a prospect. Which is slightly weird given how much he demolished the two leagues he was in. I would have to think if he has a similar 2026, that he would then get an actual scouting grade. But yeah, you really have to lean on the stats on this one.<\/p>\n
Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283\/.396\/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting: 25\/55 Hit, 20\/55 Game Power, 40\/60 Raw Power, 50\/40 Speed, 30\/40 Field<\/p>\n
Presumably, Padilla will be spending the 2026 season in full-season Low A. That means he\u2019ll be at Palm Beach, an incredibly hard place to have power. I would not not necessarily expect his potential power to show up and really any increase in power, however marginal, should be seen as a huge positive given the difficult run environment he will be entering. But yeah as things stand, it doesn\u2019t seem like 2026 will answer the question on Padilla\u2019s power and if it does, he\u2019s going to be way higher on this list next season.<\/p>\n
Stats (High A): 529 PAs, .217\/.288\/.404, 8.7 BB%, 30.6 K%, .187 ISO, .282 BABIP, 79 wRC+, 79 DRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting: 20\/30 Hit, 30\/50 Game Power, 50\/60 Raw Power, 60\/60 Speed, 45\/55 Fielding<\/p>\n
And here we have, we hope, a future Josh Baez. A player who cannot make any contact, but has still managed to maintain some pop. He differs from Baez because he spent last season in High A at age 19. Baez didn\u2019t reach High A until he was 21. I think that gives some perspective on his poor offensive numbers and that he still has quite a bit of time to figure things out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Brycen Mautz is a hard player to place, because scouts don\u2019t really seem to believe in him, believe…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":590116,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2403],"tags":[5,160,4,6213,673,67,4311,4310,38503],"class_list":{"0":"post-590115","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-st-louis-cardinals","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-cardinals","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-st-louis-cardinals-news","12":"tag-st-louis","13":"tag-st-louis-cardinals","14":"tag-stlouis","15":"tag-stlouiscardinals","16":"tag-veb-daily"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116125634748183824","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=590115"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590115\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/590116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=590115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=590115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=590115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}