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<\/a><\/p>\nWhat could exceeding expectations look like?<\/p>\n
Corbin Carroll. The foundation of exceeding expectations is that his defense continues to be exceptional (10 OAA last season).<\/p>\n
Three projections predicted regression for Corbin Carroll\u2019s batting. They each projected his homers and hits to drop (the one exception expected him to have 5 more hits than last season).<\/p>\n
My 2026 Outlook was more optimistic. One reason was that Carroll, at 25 years old, was younger than the typical peak in batter performance, which occurs between age 27 and 29. My projection was 34 homers and 160 hits. See this player review.<\/a><\/p>\n Then Corbin Carroll broke his hamate bone. He may not be ready by opening day. Also, his injury could possibly lower his batting power for months after his return. If he exceeds his projection AND reaches my optimistic outlook, then he will have definitely have exceeded expectations. If he again wins a Silver Slugger (like he did last season), he will have been truly extraordinary.<\/p>\n Among the six players, his batting projection is second best. Especially noteworthy is his projected on-base-percent. Despite an unorthodox swing, if his batting in the Majors reaches his high potential, that will be the foundation of exceeding expectations. Building on that foundation, if despite his very limited experience in center field, his defense in center field is at least average (and perhaps above average), that will be the capstone in his exceeding expectations.<\/p>\n \u201cAlong with assigning him a 50 FV, our prospect team wrote that the 23-year-old outfielder in the Arizona Diamondbacks system \u201cdoes just about everything you want at the plate and he looks the part of a bat-first future regular in the box.\u201d \u2014 David Laurila<\/a><\/p>\n Last season, he injured his hamstring. In the last couple seasons, he played fewer games than most prospects, which raised doubts about his ceiling. Can he avoid injury? Avoiding injury will be a third of him exceeding expectations.<\/p>\n Last season in the Majors, in 28 games his batting was poor (OPS+ of 51). If his batting in the Majors reaches above average, that will be a third of him exceeding expectations.<\/p>\n He has near-zero playing time in center field. If he can quickly learn the new position if he can almost reach average defense, while showing progress, that will be a third of him exceeding expectations.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve heard Lawlar described as prospect bust, but I vehemently disagree with calling any player a bust based on a 108 game sample spread out over 2\u00bc seasons , especially a player with Jordan Lawlar\u2019s prospect pedigree and strong track record in the Minor Leagues.\u201d \u2014 C Wesley Baier<\/a><\/p>\n Jorge Barrosa. The foundation of exceeding expectations is that his defense continues to be great (2 OAA last season).<\/p>\n Last season, he made an adjustment to his swing. His FanGraphs projection for batting is the lowest of the outfielders that we are considering. If he gets his swing right, and his batting reaches league average, that would be the main part of exceeding expectations.<\/p>\n \u201cIn Reno, Barrosa is a borderline full-time starter with a high walk rate (11.8%) and a serviceable strikeout rate (20.8%). This sort of plate discipline and Barrosa\u2019s acuity with the glove will almost certainly get him another look in the Majors in 2026.\u201d \u2014 James Attwood<\/a><\/p>\n He does not have a trend of improving every season. If Alex Thomas bats like he did in 2024, and if he defends center field like he did in 2022 and 2023, then he will have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n \u201cAt this point, expecting Thomas to anchor center field for a competitive Diamondbacks club feels optimistic. His tools suggest upside, but four seasons of stasis on offense and regression on defense tell a different story.\u201d \u2014 Jeff Irving<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n