It wasn\u2019t supposed to go like this. When the Nationals looked to jumpstart their rebuild by trading Juan Soto to the Padres at the 2022 Trade Deadline, I imagine they expected to be reaping the competitive rewards by this point. It\u2019s not often that you can acquire four foundational pieces of a future window of contention in one fell swoop \u2014 in the Nationals\u2019 case a windfall of James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, and Robert Hassell III looked like enough to remake their farm system entirely and form the core of extended success in the future.<\/p>\n
Fast-forward three-and-a-half years and it\u2019s hard to say the Nationals are in a better place competitively than the day after they made that blockbuster. 2025 was supposed to be the first year that it all started coming together, the year that the fruits of that trade would would pay off in the form of on-field performance. Instead, the Nationals endured a train wreck of a season with 96 losses.<\/p>\n
They fired 2019 World Series-winning manager Dave Martinez and longtime team president Mike Rizzo in July after a sluggish start, creating massive upheaval just days before the MLB Draft and weeks before the trade deadline. They traded away one of the aforementioned foundational pieces of the Soto trade, sending Gore to the Rangers for a quintet of prospects to seemingly restart a rebuild that was supposed to be complete. By the end of the season, they found themselves dead-last in the NL East with the third-worst record in baseball. They had been leapfrogged by the upstart Marlins, who exited their own rebuild ahead of schedule, and were miles behind the Phillies, Braves, and Mets, whose spending effectively prevents the Nationals from climbing higher than fourth in the division for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n
The sum result of these developments is another dreary outlook for 2026. No matter which way you slice it, pretty much every projection system pegs them as a bottom-three team in MLB. FanGraphs forecasts a 94-loss season, third-worst and ahead of the Rockies and White Sox, with just a 0.7-percent chance to make the playoffs. PECOTA is even more pessimistic, pegging them for 96 losses \u2014 again, third-worst behind the Rockies and Cardinals \u2014 with a minuscule 0.5-percent playoff odds. Only the Rockies (23.0) are projected for less overall fWAR than the Nationals (25.6), Washington projected as the fourth-worst offense (17.1 batting wins) and the second-worst pitching staff (8.4 pitching wins) in the sport.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s not much help coming from outside either, as the Nationals were one of the quietest teams of the winter. Their most notable offseason addition saw them steal promising young catcher Harry Ford from the Mariners for a middle-inning reliever, and while they should be praised for that piece of business (since even a quality bullpen arm only matters so much for a rebuilding club), it\u2019s still pretty disappointing for their biggest splash to be a relatively unproven, recently graduated prospect. They inked a pair of fifth starters to one-year deals in Miles Mikolas and Foster Griffin, so at least they\u2019ll have a warm body at all five spots in the rotation.<\/p>\n
Turning attention to the composition of the roster, there are a few bright spots in an otherwise bleak landscape. Wood had something of a breakout in 2025 and is expected to lead the line with a 128 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR. He nearly set the single-season strikeout record with 221 (two shy of 2009 Mark Reynolds, pre-iconic Yankees tenure), but he can absolutely destroy a baseball, socking 31 homers at age-22. However, Wood is the only hitter on the roster with a projected wRC+ above 106 and the only player on the roster pegged for more than three wins.<\/p>\n