{"id":594018,"date":"2026-02-26T13:09:12","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T13:09:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/594018\/"},"modified":"2026-02-26T13:09:12","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T13:09:12","slug":"what-do-you-expect-from-trevor-rogers-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/594018\/","title":{"rendered":"What do you expect from Trevor Rogers this year?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Last week, Camden Chat\u2019s Tyler Young <a href=\"https:\/\/www.camdenchat.com\/baltimore-orioles-discussion\/64162\/what-do-you-expect-from-kyle-bradish-this-year\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">wrote of Kyle Bradish<\/a>: \u201cAll of this offseason talk around the Orioles\u2019 \u2018need\u2019 for an ace seems to ignore the fact that they already have one in-house.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">I\u2019d venture to say they might even have two.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">That belief, of course, depends on how much you\u2019re banking on Trevor Rogers\u2019 2025 breakthrough being sustainable. The lefty, who\u2019d been all but written off after his rough O\u2019s debut in 2024, was a revelation last year, breaking franchise and MLB records on his way to a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts and earning Most Valuable Oriole honors. He was the Birds\u2019 shining light in an otherwise dismal season, and he\u2019ll most certainly be starting one of the Orioles\u2019 first two games of the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The projection systems, though, are not sold that Rogers has turned into a true ace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">While even the most optimistic Orioles fans probably aren\u2019t expecting Rogers to post a 1.81 mark again, the projections predict a particularly sharp regression of more than 200 points of ERA. They also forecast that even if he gets 7-8 more starts than last year, he\u2019ll be worth far less than the 3.3 WAR he posted in 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The projections don\u2019t have any vendetta or personal beef against Rogers. Remember: they aren\u2019t human. They\u2019re just formulas, spitting out numbers based on a whole bunch of data. And in this case, Rogers\u2019 less-than-stellar career up until 2025 waters down the projections for his 2026 season. In his three previous years, he posted ERAs of 5.47, 4.00, and 4.92. And his 2025 stats, while mind-blowing, came in just 18 starts, just over half of a season\u2019s worth. So it\u2019s no surprise that the emotionless, unfeeling computers aren\u2019t predicting great things for his 2026 campaign.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">But what about you, Camden Chatters? What do you think Rogers is capable of this season? Let us know in the comments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Last week, Camden Chat\u2019s Tyler Young wrote of Kyle Bradish: \u201cAll of this offseason talk around the Orioles\u2019&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":336726,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[72999,5,4],"class_list":{"0":"post-594018","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-baltimore-orioles-discussion","9":"tag-baseball","10":"tag-mlb"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116137097760772269","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=594018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/336726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=594018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=594018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=594018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}