{"id":601687,"date":"2026-03-02T14:44:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T14:44:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/601687\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T14:44:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T14:44:24","slug":"fringe-to-foundational-a-short-series","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/601687\/","title":{"rendered":"Fringe to Foundational? A short series"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 _16w9vov6 _16w9vov5 ls9zuh1\">I really hate to keep beating the same drum, but I\u2019m going to continue to be on the record as believing that the make-or-break aspect of the next would-be competitive era of White Sox baseball \u2014 the aspect that Rick Hahn and friends utterly failed at from 2017-19 \u2014 is going to be whether they can find at least a couple All-Stars or solid starters out of the scrap heap. In other words, unexpected help that picks up the slack when all of the prospects aren\u2019t magically good at the same time the moment they hit the big leagues \u2014 a concept that Rick Hahn always seemed a little bit challenged by.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">As I\u2019ve blabbed about a million times before, the Cubs don\u2019t win in 2016 without Jake Arrieta. In Houston Jos\u00e9 Altuve was barely a Top 100 prospect, Dallas Keuchel never came close to sniffing a prospect list, and Marwin Gonz\u00e1lez was a critical cog in their championship roster. The Orioles may have blown their shot, but they wouldn\u2019t have even had one if they hadn\u2019t gotten more than 500 extra-base hits from the previously-anonymous Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins over a five-year stretch.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.southsidesox.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/148\/2026\/03\/gettyimages-2227451414.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0,100,100\" data-pswp-height=\"4000\" data-pswp-width=\"6000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JULY 28: Cedric Mullins #31 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates after hitting a home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 28, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. \" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/gettyimages-2227451414.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Contributions from the under-the-radar Cedric Mullins helped make Baltimore a playoff contender, however briefly. (Photo by Patrick Smith\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Things look more promising for the Sox this time around. When the decision was made to tear down the core that brought home the 2021 AL Central crown, nobody knew that Shane Smith was going to be in the plans as a Top 3 starter, and I can\u2019t think of another Sox prospect who\u2019s ever rebounded from \u201cseems like a bust\u201d to \u201cpossibly a superstar\u201d like Colson Montgomery.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Over the next couple of weeks, I\u2019m going to be identifying and breaking down five players on the Sox roster who could potentially be those unexpected building blocks \u2014 and what it means for the team if it ever comes to fruition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Let\u2019s get straight to the point here. I want you to look at an assortment of hand-picked stats from three young Sox players, measured from July 3-onward last year.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.southsidesox.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/148\/2026\/03\/Baldwin-vs-Teel-vs-CM-1.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0,100,100\" data-pswp-height=\"131\" data-pswp-width=\"667\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Baldwin-vs-Teel-vs-CM-1.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Player A, as you\u2019ve probably gathered from the massive slugging number and perhaps conspicuous cutoff date, is Colson Montgomery. Player B probably isn\u2019t hard to pin down as Kyle Teel, who\u2019s probably second to Montgomery in terms of excitement generated for future Sox teams, and whose numbers are particularly exciting for a solid receiver behind the plate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Player C, though? That\u2019s Brooks Baldwin, who was called back up to the majors on July 1 last season and proceeded to hold his own with the best of the Sox young talent the rest of the way (albeit with a bit less playing time). It\u2019s not an exaggeration to say that he came as close to matching Montgomery\u2019s absurd second-half output as anybody else on the Sox, especially when you look at the batted-ball metrics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Interesting! Very Interesting!<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Let\u2019s turn this into a quick deep-ish dive on what exactly happened between his initial demotion in May and final recall to Chicago in July. I found a real short answer: He figured out how to hit fastballs in the air instead of on the ground.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">In fact, I wrote this entire article before I realized video existed of the kid going oppo-taco on a Spencer Strider fastball. The same Spencer Strider whose entire shtick is, hey, you can\u2019t hit me because I consistently throw a four-seamer up in the zone faster than you can blink.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Baldwin\u2019s bat speed isn\u2019t elite, but it\u2019s not unplayable either. Even when he\u2019s struggled, he\u2019s made solid contact, posting above-average exit velocities at every measured level. When he came back from Charlotte at the beginning of July, all of that hard contact suddenly started going places where it could do actual damage. His overall fly ball percentage jumped from 30% to 48% after that call-up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">I\u2019m pretty embarrassed I didn\u2019t notice it before. It didn\u2019t take a lot more diving to locate the specific place of improvement, either.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.southsidesox.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/148\/2026\/03\/chart2.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0,100,100\" data-pswp-height=\"1440\" data-pswp-width=\"2560\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chart2.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The game is largely moving away from traditional fastballs, but pitchers are always going to have to throw them. The key for Baldwin is to avoid getting himself out on breaking stuff. There are a solid number of solid big-leaguers who make a living off of hammering fastballs. It\u2019s plenty conceivable that Baldwin could become one of them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The flip side is that Baldwin\u2019s tendency to chase is still worrisome. Even after he started being awesome against heaters (I specifically love how he took his average launch angle against sinkers from a virtually flat one degree all the way up to 16, solidly in line drive territory) he still offered at pitches out of the zone at a rate near the bottom of the league. Damage against fastballs doesn\u2019t matter if pitchers can spam breaking balls and offspeed pitches and get away with it most of the time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Still, there\u2019s still a much wider range of outcomes with Baldwin than many of us are giving him credit for. Defensive metrics have panned his work pretty much across the board, but he\u2019s plenty fleet of foot, ranking in the 82nd percentile for Baseball Savant\u2019s sprint speed metric. It also thinks he has a solid enough arm, one that will play all across the diamond even if it\u2019s nothing special. Contrasted with someone like Lenyn Sosa, whose lack of lateral speed and overall athleticism put a hard cap on his defensive ceiling, Baldwin still has room for improvement. This is not the guy who has the tools of a negative defender.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.southsidesox.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/148\/chorus\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/25956859\/usa_today_25947814.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0,100,100\" data-pswp-height=\"2473\" data-pswp-width=\"3709\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"MLB: Athletics at Chicago White Sox\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/usa_today_25947814.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Matt Marton-Imagn Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Now, to zoom out of the nitty-gritty. Let\u2019s assume July-August-September Baldwin is what we actually get this season. Pencil in a 120 wRC+ switch hitter who isn\u2019t better-than-average at any position, but can give any of your regulars a breather on any given day. He\u2019s going to walk and strike out at rates around league average, and he\u2019s got enough speed to do some damage on the basepaths. Project it out over 500-odd trips to the plate, and you get a guy who might push 20-20 without even locking down a regular position.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">In what world were the 2026 White Sox supposed to have a guy like that that we didn\u2019t already know about?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Did I just accidentally describe peak Ben Zobrist when trying to come up with a comp for Brooks Baldwin? Maybe I did! So sue me. This is the thought experiment right here, guys. Does anyone expect every single one of the farm system\u2019s ranked prospects to hit their ceilings any more than they did the last time? I\u2019m sure one of these years, we\u2019ll finally witness long-awaited glory from a rotation topped by Jon Rauch, Matt Ginter, and Dan Wright.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">If the 2027 or 2028 White Sox are going to be competitive, it\u2019s not going to be because of Teel, Edgar Quero, the Montgomerys, and Roch Cholowsky.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">(Pause for dramatic effect)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">That\u2019s a lie! Of course it\u2019s going to be because of them. A better way of putting that might be to say that if the 2027 or 2028 Sox want a shot at being 100-win juggernaut instead of a 92-win question mark or 84-win flop, it\u2019s not going be because the top prospects clicked; it\u2019s going to be because someone like Brooks Baldwin turned into a poor-but-not-necessarily-crazy-poor man\u2019s Ben Zobrist, and nobody saw it coming. Nobody but us, of course.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">It could just as easily be that Baldwin reverts to the 60 wRC+ hitter he was for the first 80-odd games of his big league career. It\u2019s almost famously common knowledge by now that September stats have, broadly speaking, no real correlation with performance the following season. But hey, tell that to Lenyn Sosa in September 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">If Baldwin does anything in 2026 akin to how Sosa followed up on that scorching-hot September, there\u2019s no telling how the calculus on this team\u2019s roster might be changed seven months from now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I really hate to keep beating the same drum, but I\u2019m going to continue to be on the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":601688,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2379],"tags":[5,138,49,39268,2561,4,396,2562],"class_list":["post-601687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-chicago-white-sox","tag-baseball","tag-chicago","tag-chicago-white-sox","tag-chicago-white-sox-commentary-analysis","tag-chicagowhitesox","tag-mlb","tag-white-sox","tag-whitesox"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116160120747166152","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/601687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=601687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/601687\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/601688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=601687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=601687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=601687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}