{"id":601972,"date":"2026-03-02T17:56:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T17:56:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/601972\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T17:56:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T17:56:03","slug":"fantasy-baseball-zero-sp-draft-strategy-starters-to-target-in-mid-to-late-rounds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/601972\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy baseball Zero-SP draft strategy: Starters to target in mid-to-late rounds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Conceptually, a Zero-SP draft strategy is attractive because starting pitching, no matter the cost, is a very fragile and\/or volatile asset<\/a>. Hitters, on the otherhand, are less volatile, and it\u2019s wiser to choose them in the early and mid rounds \u2014 within the top 100 picks<\/a>. But now comes the hard part that makes the faint-hearted turn tail and run \u2014 building a staff of fantasy starters from around pick No. 100 and later.<\/p>\n

Again, I advise this strategy (or at least not drafting a starter in the first five rounds) in all formats except head-to-head leagues with very limited hitting starters (typically nine active hitters) and a nine-man pitching staff. There\u2019s as much free-hitting loot on waivers in these leagues as pitching bargains \u2014 and probably more.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not making big promises with the pitchers I recommend here. About half will get hurt or have bad years. But I think the hit rate will be similar to the pitchers drafted in the top 100. And to be clear, I think these pitchers have serious upside relative to cost. The big benefit is that losing one of these guys to injury isn\u2019t a disaster because your investment was low. And you also avoid the worst situation for any fantasy manager \u2014 the forced hold of a terrible performing player because you paid too much to cut him. Think Aaron Nola last year. You have no loyalty to any pitcher you roster, and that\u2019s very liberating; this ruthlessness makes you a more formidable opponent.<\/p>\n

I put all the pitchers with 40+ innings last year through five filters, but only got eight names at a February ADP of 100 or later \u2014 not enough. So then I used just two filters: K% and xwOBA (which is basically a proxy for expected ERA and captures everything \u2014 Ks\/BBs, contact quality, trajectory \u2014 in one bucket), which gave me an actionable list I feel really good about.<\/p>\n

Some pitchers just missed qualifying, and there will be needs beyond this list, even after taking two closers (the higher the K%, the better) in the first eight rounds. Because closers are known quantities, you have to pay up for them. For any remaining pitching needs, check Statcast for those with better strikeout rates and OPS allowed marks.<\/p>\n

Five-filter targets<\/p>\n

Nolan McLean, NYM (ADP: 96): McLean is close enough to pick No. 100 that you can take him near his ADP or, about half the time, outside the top-100 picks. McLean had a 2.06 ERA and .259 wOBA. His expected ERA was 3.53 (xwOBA was .293, with .316 being average). His K-BB rate was elite at 21.8%. McLean has four pitches with a whiff rate over 30%, including a curveball with an absurd 3,248 RPMs that\u2019s swung at and missed 50% of the time. I actually believe in his actual numbers more than his expected ones when looking at his tape<\/a>. McLean could win a Cy Young Award, health permitting.<\/p>\n

Brandon Woodruff, MIL (ADP: 127): He came back from major shoulder surgery last year, which ends most careers, and he lost a lot of velocity when he returned. There are questions about his availability on Opening Day and his innings generally, but the results were there. His K rate was 32.3%. Woodruff\u2019s xwOBA was absurdly good at .233, which translates to an xERA of 2.22 (99th percentile), though in only 64.2 innings. Still, his K-BB rate of 26.9% is otherworldly. The league hit .063 against his changeup. Woodruff\u2019s ADP is a gift. Make sure you revisit it by setting filters for \u201clast week\u201d only<\/a> when you draft. His ADP could change radically based on his April availability.<\/p>\n

Emmet Sheehan, LAD (129): He won so many leagues for people down the stretch last year that those of us who rostered him can\u2019t believe he\u2019s this cheap. His K-BB rate was 23%. His xERA was pretty much in line with his actual at 2.82. Dodger Stadium is the most homer-friendly park in baseball at 27% above average, and Sheehan is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. There\u2019s not much of a resume here and a significant injury history, but Sheehan has SP1 upside, and we\u2019ve seen it already.<\/p>\n

Cam Schlittler, NYY (137): His velocity is 95th percentile, and his cutter is very effective, which he throws along with his fastball 76.7% of the time. Statcast calls the pitch a cutter, but some refer to it as a hard slider. His curveball has shown promise, and maybe it can be more effective going forward than it was in 2025 (just a 21.8% whiff rate). If the curveball becomes an average pitch, Schlittler could be a top-10 fantasy starter. The velocity at which he throws, unfortunately, carries more injury risk than average.<\/p>\n

Blake Snell, LAD (138): He\u2019s pitched 130+ innings twice and won the Cy Young after both those seasons. That\u2019s Snell in a nutshell, and unavailability is why he\u2019s so cheap. He\u2019s also not scheduled to open the season in the rotation as of late February. I wouldn\u2019t draft him, but I am afraid Snell will beat me, especially with his ADP likely to sink in light of the latest news that he won\u2019t be back until May 1<\/a>, at the earliest. You need multiple IL spots to even think about this.<\/p>\n

Sean Manaea, NYM (289): Now we\u2019re talking. Manaea is even an NL-only league play, given how absurdly cheap he is. Manea\u2019s K-BB rate would have ranked third in baseball and edged out Paul Skenes. I know the actual stats weren\u2019t there, but he was essentially the pitcher he was in 2024, though with much worse luck. Manaea has worked this winter to get his arm slot exactly where it was in 2024, rather than dropping it even further down as in 2025. He\u2019s looking for the perfect mix of fastball ride. Combine that with his extension, and he has one of the best heaters in the game. He will be on all my teams. Always gamble when it doesn\u2019t cost you anything.<\/p>\n

Reid Detmers, LAA (350): Look, we\u2019ve been down this road before with Detmers, who has always been stuff over results. And his success last year, as limited as it was in closing that gap, was as a reliever. But we\u2019re talking a $2 pitcher tops in only leagues and a deep reserve pick in mixed. Over the past two years, his expected ERA has been sub-4.00, with a K rate approaching 30%<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jacob Lopez, ATH (400): One of my guiding principles is that you can\u2019t fake Ks, so I don\u2019t care about Lopez\u2019s lack of velocity. I get that his home park is a joke, and expected stats are park-neutral. But he has a 28% K rate with a 33.2% hard-hit rate (average is 37%). His home ERA, somehow, was just 2.64. I know being an extreme fly-ball pitcher is a dangerous way to live, especially in Sacramento. But he\u2019s almost guaranteed a winning WHIP if he gives up soft fly balls and pop-ups and maintains his K%.<\/p>\n

Two-filter targets (Ks, xERA\/xwOBA)<\/p>\n

All of the pitchers above are on this list, too. And you can argue that the five filters are overkill since xERA\/xwOBA (which is the same stat expressed differently) is a big bucket that captures and weights everything perfectly, according to Statcast. Strikeouts are a category of their own, and getting a high K rate allows for flirting with league minimum inning requirements.\u00a0In most formats, the fewer innings your staff pitches, the better. I fully endorse these additional pitchers at their ADPs.<\/p>\n

Nick Pivetta, SD (95): Pivetta is close enough to No. 100, which means he\u2019ll be drafted later than No. 100 about half the time. I don\u2019t get Pivetta\u2019s price. I didn\u2019t get it last year, either. His xERA is way worse than his actual ERA, but he\u2019s been over a 20% K-BB rate for the past three years, cumulatively. His park is a net plus but not radically so. He\u2019s beaten his xERA in seven seasons. Is his history of consistently outperforming his xERA proof he\u2019s not just lucky? No. It\u2019s more likely there\u2019s something about Pivetta\u2019s pitching that allows him to beat expectations. He\u2019s another extreme fly-ball pitcher, and maybe he\u2019s benefiting from good defense. I think the ninth round or so for Pivetta is basically paying for 27% Ks, which is very bettable, and a 4.00 ERA with a winning WHIP.<\/p>\n

Chase Burns, CIN (109): I write the backs of Topps cards and am familiar with the ultra-modern market, though I only collect vintage. There is such a disconnect here because Burns is a player being chased in the hobby. In our drafts, he\u2019s an afterthought. But he has 97th-percentile velocity, which alone is worth pick No. 109. But he also has a 35.6% K rate and a 27.1% K-BB rate. His xERA was more than a run lower than his actual ERA. His ADP makes me question whether he\u2019s hurt. He\u2019s not.<\/p>\n

Sonny Gray, BOS (137): I hate small pitchers, but not as much as the market. While his 4.28 ERA in 2025 wasn\u2019t great, his xERA has been 3.71, 3.64, and 3.88 over the past three years. Now add a 21% K-BB rate \u2014 the average is 13.8. Sure, he\u2019s in his age-36 season, but he throws seven pitches and three breaking balls; he\u2019s maybe the best breaking-ball starter in baseball. Additionally, his K rate for the past two seasons combined is 28%.<\/p>\n

Nathan Eovaldi, TEX (147): Just look at this Statcast page<\/a>. The 0.85 WHIP isn\u2019t repeatable, but the prior two seasons were 1.14 and 1.15. Finishing at 1.09 is a reasonable projection. His walk rate was 98th percentile, and there\u2019s nothing random about walk rate. His ADP seems too low. He\u2019s old (36), but he\u2019s already lost his elite velocity (down to 44th percentile last year), and it clearly hasn\u2019t mattered. Eovaldi doesn\u2019t need much with that devastating splitter (.196 average allowed with 36% whiff rate).<\/p>\n

Edward Cabrera, CHC (189): He\u2019s always been an injury-prone tease, but in his final 19 starts last year, Cabrera had a 2.87 ERA and 117 Ks (27.3%). If you get 30 innings out of Cabrera before an injury, what kind of damage will that do to your team at his ADP? Most Round 15-16 picks get waived. Cabrera is a high-K, high-ground-ball pitcher and thus way more likely to have a positive ERA than his career stats indicate.<\/p>\n

Jack Flaherty, DET (223): He over-regressed last year, and we all expected it. But Flaherty is probably a 4.00 ERA pitcher with a K rate closer to 30% than 25% \u2014 and 25% is fine. His knuckle-curve went from being a good pitch in actual results to only good in expected ones. The whiff rate on that pitch (an absurd 42.4%) was virtually unchanged.<\/p>\n

Joey Cantillo, CLE (281): \u201cWell, he was mostly a reliever (games), so who cares about his stats?\u201d Did you know he had a 2.96 ERA in his 13 starts with a K rate of 26%? The four-seamer got mashed last year, but his changeup is so elite (49.4% whiff rate) that there\u2019s a chance it will play up if he can tunnel those pitches better. He probably won\u2019t be a mixed-league asset, but it\u2019s far more likely than his ADP suggests. In September, Cantillo had a 1.55 ERA and 0.90 WHIP (five starts).<\/p>\n

Chad Patrick, MIL (315): Part of my recommending Patrick is faith in the Brewers\u2019 organization. While he performed better than expected, his xERA was still under 4.00. We\u2019d like the Ks a little higher, but 25% is fine. The fastball has a lot of revs\/ride and plays up, while his velocity is average. He\u2019s also on a good team with a top bullpen, so his wins should be helpful. Patrick isn\u2019t a world beater, but he could be a sixth or seventh mixed-league starter for basically zero cost.<\/p>\n

Michael Soroka, ARI (462):\u00a0Soroka can be valuable in mixed leagues despite an NL-only league price tag. Soroka was once a top prospect before multiple Achilles tears, and he rediscovered himself last year. As of now, he\u2019s slated to be the sixth starter for Arizona, hence the ADP. But I can\u2019t see that holding, and not just due to injury. Soroka had a 1.13 WHIP last year. The ERA was out of whack, but his xERA was 3.53. Soroka\u2019s slurve was one of the best breaking balls in MLB (.118 average, .131 expected average, 38.3% whiff rate), and he gets whiffs on 20% of his fastballs, which is solid.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Conceptually, a Zero-SP draft strategy is attractive because starting pitching, no matter the cost, is a very fragile…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":601973,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2276],"tags":[5,28,2291,4,1586],"class_list":{"0":"post-601972","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-draft","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-fantasy-baseball","10":"tag-major-league-baseball-draft","11":"tag-mlb","12":"tag-mlb-draft"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116160874776703094","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/601972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=601972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/601972\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/601973"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=601972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=601972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=601972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}