Let’s dive in.<\/p>\n
New York Mets SP Freddy Peralta: Rank 16, ADP 64![\"New](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/01kjtrg4bjn7s6xsvebx.jpg\" "\\"New")
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Feb 17, 2026; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; New York Mets pitcher Freddy Peralta warms up (51) during the New York Mets spring training workouts at Clover Park. | Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
Even though Freddy Peralta enjoyed a statistically impressive 2025 season, finishing 17\u20116 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts over 176\u2154 innings pitched, there are several reasons fantasy managers might consider him overvalued going into 2026.<\/p>\n
First, a closer look at his numbers suggests that some of his success was boosted by unsustainably favorable luck metrics, including a low BABIP and particularly high strand rate, which often regress toward league norms and can inflate traditional ratios like ERA. <\/p>\n
Second, while the counting stats look excellent, his peripheral improvements outside of 2025 haven\u2019t been as stark, and moving from Milwaukee\u2019s stronger defense to the New York Mets\u2019s less reliable unit could negatively impact his ERA and WHIP.<\/p>\n
Finally, fantasy drafters often overrate wins and strikeout totals stats Peralta filled last year rather than underlying skills; if his performance regresses or New York\u2019s run support and defensive context change, his value could drop faster than his draft position suggests, making him a riskier pick than his surface 2025 stats imply.\u00a0<\/p>\n
New York Mets SP Nolan McLean: Rank 26, ADP 96![\"New](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/01kjtrh8gccm0b8z2ye5.jpg\" "\\"New")
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Sep 20, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean (26) pitches in the third inning against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field. | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
Even though Nolan McLean flashed eye\u2011popping metrics in his brief 2025 debut, there are several reasons fantasy managers should be cautious and consider him overvalued relative to the typical draft price.<\/p>\n
In just eight starts, he posted a sparkling 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts in 48 innings, but that came in a very limited sample size, not the full-season workload most reliable fantasy starters provide.<\/p>\n
Such a small sample can be skewed by hot streaks or favorable batted\u2011ball luck, and his expected metrics (like FIP) suggest some regression might be coming as hitters adjust and the league scours deeper video.<\/p>\n
Beyond volume concerns, there\u2019s also the question of innings and role stability. McLean only arrived in August, and it\u2019s unclear whether the Mets will ramp him up into a full 170\u202f+\u202finning starter immediately, which impacts counting stats like strikeouts and wins that fantasy scoring prizes.<\/p>\n
Additionally, his walk rate and home\u2011run susceptibility in small outings hint at potential volatility against more disciplined lineups.<\/p>\n
These factors combined make his elite surface numbers from 2025 less predictive and suggest he\u2019s more of a breakout upside play rather than a guaranteed top\u2011tier fantasy arm at his likely draft cost.<\/p>\n
Milwaukee Brewers SP Jacob Misiorowski: Rank 35, ADP 132![\"Milwaukee](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/01kjtrkqmsrhp2vs9hh2.jpg\" "\\"Milwaukee")
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Oct 11, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski (32) reacts against the Chicago Cubs in the second inning during game five of the NLDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at American Family Field. | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
Despite the hype surrounding Jacob Misiorowski, including his electric stuff and All\u2011Star selection, he\u2019s arguably an overvalued fantasy baseball starting pitcher heading into 2026 based on his 2025 performance.<\/p>\n
In his rookie season, he made only 15 appearances (14 starts) and pitched just 66 innings, limiting his ability to contribute counting stats like strikeouts and wins compared with true fantasy workhorses.<\/p>\n
Over that small sample, he posted a middling 4.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts, numbers that aren\u2019t particularly exciting outside of deep formats given the volume he provided.<\/p>\n
While his strikeout raw total looks reasonable, the underlying rate stats suggest inconsistency; his per\u2011game strikeout rates and peripherals fluctuate, and his control remains a concern, which tends to drag down fantasy ratios.<\/p>\n
In most leagues, starting pitchers who can\u2019t deliver consistent innings and strong ratios are penalized heavily, so drafting Misiorowski high purely on velocity and upside may leave you with a pitcher whose counting contributions and efficiency don\u2019t match the draft capital spent on him.<\/p>\n
More Fantasy Sports On SI News<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In fantasy baseball, reputation and draft cost don\u2019t always align with on-field value. This season, Freddy Peralta headlines…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":604516,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2401],"tags":[5,136,843,59,4280,4],"class_list":{"0":"post-604515","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-milwaukee-brewers","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-brewers","10":"tag-milwaukee","11":"tag-milwaukee-brewers","12":"tag-milwaukeebrewers","13":"tag-mlb"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116167736522666603","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=604515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604515\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/604516"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=604515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=604515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=604515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}