{"id":605725,"date":"2026-03-04T13:31:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T13:31:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/605725\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T13:31:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T13:31:15","slug":"how-could-the-st-louis-cardinals-surprise-fans-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/605725\/","title":{"rendered":"How could the St Louis Cardinals surprise fans in 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"

I ask you, dear VEB\u2019r, what could the Cardinals do to surprise the average fan? They have already been surprised with an Oliver Marmol extension, under a new President of Baseball Ops. Chaim Bloom had already worked with Marmol during the Mozeliak transitional years, and you can tell there is an affinity at least between the existing coaching framework and org veteran Oliver Marmol. There was already a pattern that things could and should work out, operationally and personally. The Cardinals will probably never take a gamble again on someone with anger management issues (same for just about every team). You might not like it, but Oliver Marmol is here to stay for a little while. And now they have a $29 all you can eat inclusive ticket<\/a>, which was kind of surprising given how much they charge for concessions.<\/p>\n

But this is about how the Cardinals could surprise us on the field, not about marketing, managers, and front office stuff. Who do you think will be the outliers this year? The overachievers, the come out of nowhere success stories, and also the disappointments\u2026 Sadly enough, it could be a bad season.<\/p>\n

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If all the worst projections come true, the Cardinals could be a 68 win team. And I\u2019m not even considering PECOTA and Vegas. This data is from my four chosen projection systems ZiPS DC, Fangraphs DC, The Bat X, and OOPSY. On the higher ceiling side of things, the Cardinals, if hitting all the best projections, could win 78 games. That could still very well be last place, but that\u2019s a 10 game swing, and if you bet the over on the Vegas odds on the Cardinals, there\u2019s a VERY strong chance you\u2019ll win, in my opinion.<\/p>\n

The Reds also have a pretty big difference between the ceiling and floor, at around 8.5 games. The Pirates also are not easy to predict with an 8 game swing. The Brewers and Cubs at about 9 games difference from ceiling to floor. So maybe the Cardinals are only slightly more difficult to pin down, but the possibility is still there.<\/p>\n

However, I am going to boldly predict the Cardinals winning even more than what the highest projection combination is saying. When I throw out all the outliers including the highest and lowest projections, this helps the Cardinals the most. They gain 4 games. The Cubs are not as affected when throwing out the outlier projections, probably because projections are more in agreement about that team as it is easier to predict with more veteran players. This illustrates how projecting a team like the Cardinals is a fool\u2019s errand. There are too many known unknowns!<\/p>\n

So why do I think they may be able to shatter the ceiling of 78 wins? They are no stranger to outperforming underdog projections, historically<\/a>. Winn\u2019s highest projection is from OOPSY at 3.7 WAR, I think he will crack 4 WAR. No projection I am choosing expects Herrera to crack 3 WAR, but I think he absolutely will. Is JJ Wetherholt\u2019s rookie ceiling really 2.6 WAR? We are about to find out, starting in under a month! Is Alec Burleson\u2019s ceiling 2.1 WAR? I think not! Or maybe it is, idk. He could certainly do better if he keeps ramping up his wRC+ like he\u2019s done every season (89, 106, 124 over the last three seasons).<\/p>\n

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Is the Cardinals rotation worth a maximum of about 9 WAR? What if May, Fitts, Liberatore, and McGreevy are all 2+ WAR pitchers? Then it depends on if Leahy is a success story. Or maybe Pallante is more like 2024! There is a path for the rotation to exceed 10 WAR. The bullpen could rather easily outdo the projections as well. I would not write them off so easily. Sure, they will probably finish in last place, but I don\u2019t think they will be quite as bad as some people are imagining they will be.<\/p>\n

I predicted 85 wins in the VEB prediction poll<\/a>! How could they do this? I\u2019ll need to explain 7 games over the ceiling of 78 wins\u2026 Winn ups the ante to 5 WAR, Herrera also hits 5 WAR, and Burleson keeps improving his game every season by being a 3.5 WAR player. If those three players can perform at those levels, then the pitching staff just needs to cough up an extra 2 WAR by surpassing their ceiling of 9 by only one win. The consensus of projections predict they can do 8 WAR. This could come from difficult to predict players such as May, Fitts, or Liberatore, or it could come from the unproven bullpen. Does 85 wins mean anything other than being a successful season for a roster that could be seen as a AAAA group? Sure! I don\u2019t think they would be first place at 85 wins, but it\u2019s possible. The Cubs floor is actually below .500 if you imagine all the worst projections for them occurring.<\/p>\n

Consensus projection prediction for NL Central end of season:<\/p>\n

Now I\u2019d like to think about removing all outliers from the projections and seeing what would happen.<\/p>\n

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When normalizing the projections, taking out all outlier projections, this is the finish:<\/p>\n

Now the Pirates finish just ahead of the Cardinals, but the Brewers and Reds are not far ahead! This angle provides another look at the division, which has a lot of parity, actually. The Cubs aren\u2019t running away with it, but still on top\u2026 but they\u2019re only about 6 games ahead of the Cardinals win total. In this version of reality, the NL Central almost certainly does not have a wild card in 2026. Outside of Chicago, the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals are not all that much different. And if this version of reality happens, the Cardinals just have to get really good years out of Winn, Herrera, and Burleson, and the pitching cannot be a huge issue. Then the Cardinals could give the Cubs a run for their money.<\/p>\n

Notes and Observations (related to the conclusion of my NL Central projections project)<\/p>\n

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Overall, looking at all NL Central teams, Fangraphs Depth Charts is the most down the middle overall, not giving outlier projections as much as the other systems<\/p>\n

The Bat X is favorable to Cardinals pitching, Fangraphs DC is biased against it in this case<\/p>\n

The opposite is true when it comes to Cardinals position players, Fangraphs DC has more outliers and The Bat X isn\u2019t impressed<\/p>\n

ZiPS likes the Reds (pitching) and Cubs (position players) moreso than any other system<\/p>\n

OOPSY and The Bat X see the most upside to the Pirates, interesting because both incorporate statcast metrics (especially OOPSY)<\/p>\n

OOPSY likes the upside of the Brewers position players, The Bat X sees the most upside to the Brewers starting rotation, and ZiPS likes the Brewers key depth pieces most. Confounding devil magic, probably!<\/p>\n

Perhaps all the Cardinals needed to be better on offense was the training upgrades in the offseason, another reason for hope is that this transformation will make players like Walker, Gorman, and Scott better on offense\u2026 or maybe it\u2019ll help the entire offense be more successful<\/p>\n

1980<\/p>\n

C0ntinuing on with my bonus coverage of years throughout my life, 1980 begins the all too important 1980s<\/p>\n

John Lennon was murdered by Mark David Chapman on December 8, 1980. I only know who one of those guys are, and not the asshole who murdered someone. I only recognize the name of both.<\/p>\n

Time is of the essence!<\/p>\n

Top Movie picks of 1980:<\/p>\n

Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back<\/p>\n

You let me know what I missed there, I\u2019m sure it\u2019s beyond comprehension!<\/p>\n

20 Albums from 1980<\/p>\n

Here are my 20 picks from 1980! I tried to go back to a top 10 but failed miserably! In a good way.<\/p>\n

Steely Dan \u2013 \u2018Guacho\u2019<\/a> what could sound much more 1980 than this?<\/p>\n

Sun Ra \u2013 \u2018Strange Celestial Road<\/a>\u2019 Sun Ra during some of his peak years, one of his most memorable pieces<\/p>\n

Rush \u2013 \u2018Permanent Waves<\/a>\u2019 prog rock reaching into new and epic 80\u2019s territory and succeeding mightily<\/p>\n

Talking Heads \u2013 \u2018Remain In Light<\/a>\u2019 Talking Heads coming into their own and fusing many genres into one<\/p>\n

Killing Joke \u2013 self titled<\/a> Killing Joke debut defined a generation of industrial, punk, and metal fans<\/p>\n

Blue Oyster Cult \u2013 \u2018Cultosaurus Erectus<\/a>\u2019 perhaps their most underrated album, perfect start to finish<\/p>\n

Motorhead \u2013 \u2018Ace of Spades<\/a>\u2019 helps invent a whole new generation of heavy metal<\/p>\n

Peter Hammill \u2013 \u2018A Black Box<\/a>\u2019 slightly unhinged avant art rock<\/p>\n

Paul McCartney \u2013 \u2018McCartney II<\/a>\u2019 surprisingly funny, awkward disco pop album<\/p>\n

AC\/DC \u2013 \u2018Back In Black<\/a>\u2019 when this album hits it hits big, classic rock masterpiece<\/p>\n

The B-52s \u2013 \u2018Wild Planet<\/a>\u2019 super fun sophomore album by the 80\u2019s phenom the B-52s<\/p>\n

The Residents \u2013 \u2018Commercial Album<\/a>\u2019 just as super bizarro world weird as you\u2019d expect from early Residents<\/p>\n

Ok let me know your 2026 surprise performances and your favorite albums of 1980!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I ask you, dear VEB\u2019r, what could the Cardinals do to surprise the average fan? They have already…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":605726,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2403],"tags":[1894,5,136,160,138,161,16641,54,9317,1553,17271,4,5943,1173,673,67,4311,4310],"class_list":{"0":"post-605725","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-st-louis-cardinals","8":"tag-alec-burleson","9":"tag-baseball","10":"tag-brewers","11":"tag-cardinals","12":"tag-chicago","13":"tag-cubs","14":"tag-fitts","15":"tag-houston-astros","16":"tag-liberatore","17":"tag-masyn-winn","18":"tag-mcgreevy","19":"tag-mlb","20":"tag-oliver-marmol","21":"tag-pallante","22":"tag-st-louis","23":"tag-st-louis-cardinals","24":"tag-stlouis","25":"tag-stlouiscardinals"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116171157574629993","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=605725"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605725\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/605726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=605725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=605725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=605725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}