With a little bit more than two weeks of Spring Training down, we\u2019ve got a little bit less than two weeks of Spring Training left before they break camp and begin the slow journey to Opening Day. They\u2019re in Arizona, and it\u2019s enduring an unseasonable heat wave, so everyone is literally hot, but it\u2019s time to ask the question of who is figuratively starting off hot and who is not.<\/p>\n
All stats are as of the morning of Friday, March 6.<\/p>\n
Among the stickiest stats<\/a> (stats that are most correlated) for hitters going from Spring Training to the Regular season are those related to plate discipline and exit velocity. This makes a lot of sense because the altitude and weather have minimal ability to impact a player\u2019s ability to identify a ball or strike. Similarly, exit velocity is measured as close to impact with the bat as possible, reducing the atmospheric impact. Jac Caglianone is a standout in just about every conceivable way here.<\/p>\n Max EV<\/a> is the stat of choice for many analysts; Jac is easily tops here with his 120.2 MPH double. (Ignore the title, the first swing is Jac\u2019s double, the second is someone else\u2019s home run at ~109 MPH)<\/p>\n But 90th-Percentile Exit Velocity (EV90, an average of the top 10% highest exit velocities) is a more standard way to measure a player\u2019s power potential, so I prefer that. But, hey, would you look at that? Jac is on top there<\/a>, too, at 116.5 MPH! Jac also has the fourth-best chase rate among Royals with at least 16 PAs, and is sixth-best in Royals with at least 11. He\u2019s also walked more than he\u2019s struck out. Basically, it\u2019s hard to imagine a way in which Caglianone could be having a better spring.<\/p>\n He also notched a 106 MPH RBI double in his first World Baseball Classic action, so that\u2019s pretty cool, too.<\/p>\n Not: Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas<\/p>\n In contrast to Jac, Lane Thomas is chasing more than just about anyone who is likely to break camp with the big club. Among those worse than Thomas is Isaac Collins. In fairness, the switch-hitter has only nine plate appearances so far after being delayed to start the season due to PRP injections during the offseason. Collins\u2019 EV90 is a measly 98.9, while Thomas does at least boast an EV90 of 104.3. However, to give that a bit of context, that would have slotted him in right between John Rave and Jonathan India if he did it during last year\u2019s regular season.*<\/p>\n *Jac led the team in EV90 among players with at least 100 PAs at 109.5<\/p>\n Isaac and Lane should get plenty of opportunities to impress over the remainder of Spring Training, but looking at those numbers is enough to make the Starling Marte signing even more reasonable than it had already seemed.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll be the first to admit that Massey is chasing more and whiffing more than you\u2019d like, but he\u2019s also walking at a much higher rate than normal. He also got an EV90 of 105. Which doesn\u2019t sound all that impressive compared to Thomas above, but would have put him firmly between Mike Yastrzemski and Maikel Garcia last year. This stat is one of those that doesn\u2019t have to change much in order to be significant.<\/p>\n Add in that he\u2019s always been a more-than-competent second baseman and appears to be doing just fine in the corner outfield spots, and he seems likely to have locked up a utility spot on the team that was probably his to lose as camp began.<\/p>\n In complete contrast to Massey, India has the best chase rate among players with more than four plate appearances, but even his middling power has evaporated this spring. His Max EV and EV90 are both worst among players* with at least 16 plate appearances at 99.8 and 90.7 MPH, respectively. Unless he can start hitting the ball much harder, very soon, he\u2019s going to lose the everyday 2B job to Massey if not at the start of the year, then very shortly into the season.<\/p>\n *The home run on Saturday will have bumped both of these, but even that is only one swing.<\/p>\n Hot: Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans, and Ryan Bergert<\/p>\n For pitchers, strikeouts, walks, and \u201cstuff\u201d are the stats to pay the most attention to. Ragans, Bergert, and Bubic have the best overall tjStuff+<\/a> numbers among starters for the Royals. (You can read more about how this stat is derived here<\/a>; but the short version is that 100 is average, and every 10 is a standard deviation from the norm. Small changes indicate large differences.) They\u2019ve also combined to strike out ten while walking only two in 8.2 innings. Ragans has the best-rated fastball and cutter among the Royals. Only Stephen Kolek\u2019s changeup and Luinder Avila\u2019s slider rate more highly than those pitches. Ragans\u2019 slider also comes in second only to Avila\u2019s.<\/p>\n Bergert\u2019s fastball is the third-best. Bubic\u2019s is second. Bubic also wields the second-best sweeper (Abbreviated ST on the form linked above.) Basically, they\u2019ve been the three best pitchers in camp who have a chance to start the year with KC.<\/p>\n Noah Cameron came into camp with the fifth starter job his to lose after the Royals decided to keep him rather than try to swap him for an outfielder during the offseason. I\u2019m not sure he\u2019s yet lost that job, but with as hot as Bergert has been, Cameron probably needs to get better in a hurry. So far, he\u2019s struck out two and walked two in 2.2 innings. He also has a sub-100 tjStuff+ overall, and not a single one of his pitches has rated as above-average.<\/p>\n It\u2019s been said that he doesn\u2019t have good stuff, but last year, his slider and cutter both rated as above-average, while only his four-seamer was truly below-average. His velocity is also down across the board from last season, including 2 MPH lost on his already fairly weak heater. Last spring, he was averaging an extra 2 MPH on his heater ahead of the regular season. He\u2019s doing me a hecking concern.<\/p>\n If you\u2019ve been paying attention at all, you didn\u2019t need me to tell you Josh Rojas was having an excellent spring. But I didn\u2019t want people to think I\u2019d forgotten him. He\u2019s tied with Salvy for fifth on the team in EV90, and he\u2019s not chasing or striking out to a ridiculous degree, though he\u2019s also not walking. If this were another year, he\u2019d be playing his way on to the team, but with all the guaranteed MLB contracts the Royals handed out to bench players this year, there just doesn\u2019t seem to be any room for him.<\/p>\n Drury was a guy I really wanted the Royals to get a few years ago, but it seems that the time for that move is long past. He didn\u2019t play in the big leagues at all last year, and despite some impressive metrics, he just doesn\u2019t seem like he\u2019s got anything to contribute to this team. He\u2019s got some of the better exit velos and chase rates, but he\u2019s also struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances. You\u2019re not supposed to judge players by their spring slash lines, but when you\u2019re sporting a .167\/.375\/.167\/.542 it\u2019s hard not to.<\/p>\n Hot: Steven Cruz, Beck Way, and Dennis Coleran Jr.<\/p>\n We all already knew Steven Cruz was going to look good; we saw him pitch last year. But Beck Way had an absolutely awful year for AA and AAA last year, with a combined 5.93 ERA, walking almost as many as he struck out. He\u2019s still battling his command in Spring Training, but the stuff is undeniable. His cutter, sweeper, and changeup all look absolutely filthy. He needs to find his command if he\u2019s going to make it work, but he\u2019s certainly raising some eyebrows.<\/p>\n Dennis Colleran Jr. is probably getting the biggest bump of all the minor leaguers to appear in major league camp this year. He pitched very well in High-A and AA last year, but walked a few too many to be confident in his future. He\u2019s not yet walked anyone this spring, though, and his sweeper is the only one better than Bubic\u2019s among pitchers with at least 30 plate appearances against, while his cutter is second only to Ragans. Don\u2019t expect him to break camp with the club, but if he doesn\u2019t debut in 2026 at this rate, I\u2019ll be surprised.<\/p>\n Not: Ben Kudrna, Aaron Sanchez, and H\u00e9ctor Neris<\/p>\n Sanchez and Neris are both trying to make comebacks, and Ben Kudrna just got added to the 40-man roster over the winter. None of them are turning heads in a good way at all. Neris doesn\u2019t have a single above-average pitch. They\u2019re all bottom-10 in walks allowed; Neris and Sanchez have both walked more than they have struck out. At least Kudrna is still young.<\/p>\n Hot: Bobby Witt Jr. and Carter Jensen<\/p>\n I mean, we all expected this, right? Bobby is Bobby! Carter Jensen hasn\u2019t missed a beat from last September, just fueling the growing fire that is his early candidacy for 2026 Rookie of the Year. Bobby\u2019s EV90 is still over 108 MPH; Carter is at 105.8. They\u2019re both also doing a great job of not chasing; Carter has the second-best chase rate among those with at least 20 PA, and Bobby is sixth. They\u2019re just killing it.<\/p>\n I almost didn\u2019t include Vinnie here, because I refuse to believe that he\u2019s going to be anything less than terrific for KC this year. But his chase, whiff, and strikeout rates are all way up from where they were last season. His EV90 is also only 99 MPH. I\u2019ll just bet on him to improve those numbers when he returns from the WBC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With a little bit more than two weeks of Spring Training down, we\u2019ve got a little bit less…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":615078,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2387],"tags":[5,936,2123,55,77357,78335,2596,2595,4,252,39420,74356],"class_list":{"0":"post-615077","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-kansas-city-royals","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-kansas","10":"tag-kansas-city","11":"tag-kansas-city-royals","12":"tag-kansas-city-royals-analysis","13":"tag-kansas-city-royals-roster","14":"tag-kansascity","15":"tag-kansascityroyals","16":"tag-mlb","17":"tag-royals","18":"tag-royals-editorials-reactions","19":"tag-royals-spring-training"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116199893523804050","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=615077"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615077\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/615078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=615077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=615077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=615077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}