{"id":617785,"date":"2026-03-11T02:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T02:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/617785\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T02:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T02:40:06","slug":"a-polished-pure-hitter-with-power-questions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/617785\/","title":{"rendered":"A Polished Pure Hitter With Power Questions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome back to our scouting 101 series for the 2026 draft class. In this series, we\u2019ll examine some of the top players in the class by getting into the weeds with video, data and reporting as we prepare for the 2026 draft. You can find all of our previous scouting 101 installments here<\/a>. Today, we\u2019re checking out LSU outfielder Derek Curiel<\/a>, one of the draft\u2019s best pure hitters who comes with power questions.<\/p>\n

Curiel was a high-profile prospect dating back to his freshman season with Orange (Calif.) Lutheran High School, where his advanced baseball instincts and sweet lefthanded swing made him a name to keep tabs on. Throughout his prep career, he continued to raise his reputation as an excellent pure hitter, and ranked as a top 100 draft prospect in the 2024 class before withdrawing and making it to campus at LSU<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Curiel hit the ground running with the Tigers and turned in a freshman All-America season by hitting .348\/.474\/.528 with seven home runs, 20 doubles and strong plate discipline. As a draft-eligible sophomore entering 2026, Curiel was named a first-team preseason All-American<\/a> and voted the best pure hitter in the class by scouting directors.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Body & Swing<\/p>\n

Curiel has added some solid strength in college compared to his days as a high school hitter, and he\u2019s currently listed at 6-foot-2, 192 pounds. He looks like the sort of hitter who still has room on his frame to add more strength, and there are scouts who believe that is the case. Others wonder if he\u2019s always going to struggle to pack more mass onto his frame, similar to 2019 first-rounder and current Yankees infielder Braden Shewmake<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

What\u2019s less polarizing is the fluid nature of Curiel\u2019s swing. You\u2019ll find few scouts who have much to pick apart when it comes to how he does it at the plate, and that has been the case for a number of years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Curiel has a slight crouch and starts his hands at chin height away from his body. He then takes a medium leg kick to get going and fires his hands to the ball, fairly directly and without a significant hand hitch or press in his load. It\u2019s a balanced swing with few moving parts and always looks put-together, with a level bat path that leads to lots of line drive contact.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pre-pitch:<\/p>\n

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Point of deepest leg lift:<\/p>\n

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Point of contact:\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Approach & Contact<\/p>\n

Curiel pairs great vision with some of the best contact skills in the class. He\u2019s a patient and selective hitter who understands the strike zone and rarely expands it, to the point that some scouts wonder if there are times where he\u2019s just being overly passive.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He swung at a 34% overall rate in 2025, with a 19% chase rate that helped him manage a .470 on-base percentage and 16.4% walk rate. He put together a 43-game on-base streak that was the fifth-longest in LSU program history. Through 17 games in 2026, Curiel\u2019s approach has been similar. He\u2019s swinging a bit more\u201438% of the time\u2014but is still maintaining a 19% chase rate.<\/p>\n

In addition to providing solid on-base value, Curiel has the swing to hit for high batting averages\u2014and a track record of doing just that. He led the Tigers with a .345 average in 2025 while posting an overall contact rate of 85%. Against pitches within the strike zone, Curiel ran a 94% contact rate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Like most hitters, Curiel makes more contact against fastballs, against which he makes contact 91% of the time overall compared to a 79% overall contact rate against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. He\u2019s also managed an 88% contact rate against all pitches thrown 92 mph or harder.<\/p>\n

Curiel is an all-fields hitter who is capable of going from foul line to foul line with consistency. He\u2019s a low-launch-angle hitter who\u2019s not looking to elevate to the pull side, resulting in lots of low line drives and ground balls. He will often get more grounded in his stance with a slappy, opposite-field-oriented approach. It\u2019s almost a cliche, but Curiel is the sort of hitter who will go to the opposite field when he\u2019s pitched away and will turn on the ball when he\u2019s given the opportunity on the inner third.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Power<\/p>\n

That approach leads to the biggest question mark of Curiel\u2019s profile: How much power is he going to hit for? Specifically, how much power is he going to hit for when he has to put down a metal bat and pick up a wooden one?<\/p>\n

The degree of confidence teams have when answering this question could significantly change how they view his draft stock, and it\u2019s the primary reason Curiel has some polarizing feedback from the industry.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Curiel arguably exceeded expectations for his impact ability as a freshman. In 2025, he posted a 104.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, which was solid for his age and overall profile. But when compared to his college peers in the class<\/a>, it was still a below-average mark.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Through his first 85 college games, he\u2019s homered eight times and doubled 25 times. He\u2019s capable of getting the bat head out and leaving the yard to the pull side at times\u2014like this swing<\/a> on his first homer of the 2026 season\u2014but both his natural raw power and approach mean he\u2019s likely to be more of a gap-to-gap doubles hitter with below-average in-game power.<\/p>\n

The power question is why Curiel\u2019s physical projection is such a key factor for his profile. If teams felt confident he\u2019d be able to add more strength and become a 19-22 home run hitter, a lot of his question marks would start to disappear.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Speed<\/p>\n

Curiel has always been a solid runner, but he\u2019s not a true burner. He graded as a 55 runner in the 2024 class in high school, which seems like a grade that holds up a few years later.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He will turn in 60-grade run times from home to first because he can sometimes get out of the box quickly, but underway, he\u2019s more often a solid-average or above-average runner. He\u2019s not been an active baserunner so far in college, and in 2025 he went just 3-for-6 (50%) in steals, which is a bit surprising for a player who receives as much positive feedback as he does for his baseball instincts in general.<\/p>\n

Fielding & Arm<\/p>\n

While Curiel might lack the typical footspeed expected of big league center fielders, he makes up for it with great defensive instincts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He played center throughout his high school career, then spent the 2025 season with LSU in left field\u2014in deference to 70-grade runner Chris Stanfield<\/a>\u2014before moving back to center for 2026. Curiel has a good first step and advanced defensive instincts, and because of that, many scouts believe he has plus range despite not having true plus speed. He runs high-quality routes and, in general, seems to make the correct reads in the field. He also displays the athleticism needed to make difficult over-the-shoulder catches while tracking back towards the fence.<\/p>\n

In a vacuum, there\u2019s no reason why Curiel couldn\u2019t remain in center field long term, but he\u2019s also not the sort of 70-grade defender who would be a lock to push other high-level defenders off the position.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If he does get moved off center by a better defender, he would be a better fit in left field than right. His arm is just an average tool and might lack the carry and power typically required for major league right fielders.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

In Summary<\/p>\n

Curiel is one of the most instinctual and polished players in the class. He hits lefthanded, plays a premium position and has a lengthy track record of high-level performance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Curiel\u2019s profile feels like one that should be a first-round lock, but as mentioned in our first mock draft of the season<\/a>, he seems to be a bit more polarizing than I would have expected. That\u2019s almost entirely due to questions about his impact potential.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The ceiling vs. floor conversation surrounding prospects is probably a bit oversimplified, but many scouts think that, while Curiel is a high-floor player and likely big leaguer, he\u2019s also one who might be more solid than great.<\/p>\n

Curiel\u2019s secondary toolset isn\u2019t as loud as many other first-round talents. His power remains a question mark and has been a critique he\u2019s faced since his high school days in the 2024 class. He doesn\u2019t provide plus speed or power, and he might have just a single tool that projects as a 60.<\/p>\n

Fortunately for Curiel, that one tool happens to be the most important one: the hit tool. His swing, contact skills, plate discipline and SEC production all point to a potential plus hitter and a player scouting directors have already said is among the very best in a strong class for hitters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome back to our scouting 101 series for the 2026 draft class. In this series, we\u2019ll examine some…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":617786,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2276],"tags":[5,2291,4,1586,49360],"class_list":{"0":"post-617785","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-draft","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-major-league-baseball-draft","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-mlb-draft","12":"tag-offseason-scouting-101"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116208237008391509","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/617785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=617785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/617785\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/617786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=617785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=617785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=617785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}