FanGraphs\u2019 auction calculator<\/a>, which provides dollar values for each player based on your league parameters and chosen projection system. This will allow us to see not just the projected order of players, but where the value clumps and gaps are.<\/p>\nA couple of other notes:<\/p>\n
The league settings I\u2019m running through the calculator are standard 5\u00d75 categories, 12 teams, one catcher, a CI and MI, and four outfielders (I know four is rarer than three or five \u2014 I\u2019m splitting the difference so we\u2019re close to everyone\u2019s league settings).
\nThis flattens the positional adjustments that the calculator assigns to each position based on the player pool, from $12.1 for DH to $13.7 for 2B.<\/p>\n
I go back and forth on the best way to use these adjustments. In a way, I prefer to just look at the unadjusted values and use my own judgment to determine how much to prioritize different positions. Here, I\u2019ll leave them in so that we get the full wisdom of the calculator, and the values look recognizable.
\nI\u2019ll mention each position\u2019s adjustment and any notable changes based on league settings. The players listed are those with positive value according to the calculator under those settings, with a handful of exceptions.<\/p>\n
Finally, hover over the dots on the charts below to see player names, ADPs and auction values.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s begin!<\/p>\n
First base<\/p>\n
Positional adjustment: $12.4 (with no MI\/CI: $10.2)<\/p>\n
Nick Kurtz is ascendant and often going just ahead of Vladimir Guerrero in drafts, but ATC still gives Vlad a $4 edge based on a huge difference in batting average. Every system dials back Kurtz\u2019s average from the .290 he posted last year to the .250s or .260s, because even when you have top-shelf power, no one is expected to hold a .364 BABIP. Pete Alonso boasts similar power to Kurtz with a more pedestrian average.<\/p>\n
By projections, Alonso is the big ADP reach. If you trust Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman to hold up, you can get similar value several rounds later. The “Polar Bear” has a better health track record, however, which is only partly captured in the projections.<\/p>\n
From there, we get the kind of descent you only notice on wheels. Rafael Devers, Matt Olson and Josh Naylor represent near-equal value to Harper and Freeman, and it\u2019s a small step from there to Vinnie Pasquantino and perennial projections favorite, Yandy Diaz. If you still don\u2019t have a guy, projections say you\u2019re doing fine with Michael Busch and Tyler Soderstrom (I\u2019m skipping Ben Rice and Salvador Perez, who also show up in this group, on the premise that you\u2019re using them at catcher).<\/p>\n
After that, we get one of our only significant gaps in the position from Soderstrom ($12.9) to Alec Burleson ($9.9) to Willson Contreras ($7.8). A full season of playing time could nudge those values up a bit, especially for Contreras, whose projections are being influenced by his time at catcher.<\/p>\n
It doesn’t truly bottom out unless you\u2019re in a really deep league. You\u2019ll get workable production out of the next 10+ guys. I like grabbing one from the Olson\/Naylor\/Pasquantino group with Busch\/Soderstrom as a backup. I\u2019d love to get Sal Stewart as my CI \u2014 he could be a beast \u2014 but if I get scooped there, I\u2019m content to hunt for value elsewhere and pick up a Spencer Torkelson or a Jonathan Aranda later.<\/p>\n
1B draft targets<\/p>\n
Matt Olson
\nVinnie Pasquantino<\/p>\n
The solid second tier is a great place to shop here. Olson and Pasquantino don\u2019t have the pedigree of the names above them, but can offer similar production. In the later rounds, I have my eye on Michael Busch and Sal Stewart.<\/p>\n
Category unicorns<\/p>\n
These guys can give you an atypical category boost for the position, with the caveat that you typically trade each boost for a decrease elsewhere.<\/p>\n
AVG: Luis Arraez (.299), Guerrero (.294), Diaz (.287)
\nRBI: Alonso (103)
\nR: Guerrero, Kurtz (94 each)
\nHR: Kurtz (37), Alonso (36)
\nSB: Naylor (17)<\/p>\n
For a while, Arraez was so consistently overvalued in drafts that I started completely ignoring him, but now the market seems to have adjusted to who he is, and he can duct tape over a batting average deficiency.<\/p>\n
The real question is how many steals Naylor picks up after tripling his career high to 30 last year. ATC gives him 17, which is still the position leader by a wide margin. Everyone else is projected for single digits. It’s a little different over at \u2026<\/p>\n
Second base<\/p>\n
Positional adjustment: $10.5 (with no MI\/CI: $14.4)<\/p>\n
We have two studs, a 2025 breakout, and then second base gets squirrelly fast.<\/p>\n
Projections still give Ketel Marte the top spot, on the strength of high-20s homers, a .275 average and strong counting stats. How does Jazz Chisholm not top Marte after the former’s 30-HR\/30-SB season? It\u2019s all in the batting average, where Marte has nearly 40 points on him. Neither has an amazing health history (which is partially baked into their projections), but they are still the easy position leaders.<\/p>\n
Brice Turang, however, was the top earner at the position last year, due to his power breakout and excellent, five-category production. Projections dial him back on everything except steals, but I think he might be the safest option at the position. He plays every day, and if one part of his game slips, he has other ways to make up the difference.<\/p>\n
The projections say he\u2019s in a mini-tier with Jose Altuve, who annually outperforms my expectations. I keep seeing an aging player with little raw power and an aggressive approach who has to fall apart at some point, yet he keeps putting up really good seasons. Altuve is projected for 20 homers, 12 steals and a .265 average, which is basically in line with what he\u2019s done the past two years. That looks pretty achievable for him, and that he projects as the fourth-best second baseman says something about the position. (Note: Maikel Garcia played 11 games at second and is eligible there in Yahoo leagues. He offers a Turang-esque profile and projection. We\u2019ll discuss him further in the 3B section.)<\/p>\n
Drafters have taken Nico Hoerner just ahead of Altuve, but by the calculator, his deficit in homers and RBIs puts him behind the Astro, despite Hoerner’s strong contributions in average and steals. That said, it\u2019s not a huge reach and is understandable, given that those are two categories many people invest in protecting. Also, the position gets weird from here.<\/p>\n
Once you get into the murky middle of this position, projections show a slow slide down, but when you look at ADP, the value is in going the boring route. While drafters have looked for upside, going for Luke Keaschall and Ceddanne Rafaela as the next two, followed by a mix of mostly low-average guys with some speed, projections say you can wait and wait and get the sixth-best second baseman after pick No. 200 in Gleyber Torres. He\u2019s the crawlspace of fantasy players: the ceiling and floor are very close to each other, and he\u2019s much more useful than exciting. His surface stats were nearly identical the past two seasons, though he actually showed improvements under the hood with a career-best contact rate.<\/p>\n
Keaschall could be a better version of Hoerner. He was a dynamo in 49 games last season, swiping 14 bases with a .302 average. Unfortunately, his game total (plus 28 in the minors) is representative of his history. At 23, injuries have already become a concern. He\u2019s a risk, and not a guy where you can pay for the projection and hope for better (someone else will get him first), but he\u2019s projected for 24 steals and could double that in a healthy season.<\/p>\n
Rafaela rarely misses a game, and his excellent defense keeps him in the lineup. He has shown power growth every year, and 20 homers feels reachable. The .250ish average isn\u2019t an asset but won\u2019t sink you either. The floor is deceptively high here.<\/p>\n
Or if you trust the projections, just wait 50 picks and get something similar with Bryson Stott. The risk with him is less about production and more that the Phillies eventually start mixing in Aidan Miller or other infield options.<\/p>\n
From there, maybe you have a guy or two you like out of Ozzie Albies, Otto Lopez, Brandon Lowe, Xavier Edwards, Marcus Semien, Luis Garcia, Willi Castro and Jorge Polanco. That group covers 100 picks of ADP and $3 of projected value. If you don\u2019t have a pick there, just wait and grab whoever drops. Oh, and there’s Matt McLain, who is completely buried by projections, but gets drafted in a cluster with Lowe, Stott and Edwards. Drafters have shown love for Brendan Donovan and Jackson Holliday, who ATC says you can forget about.<\/p>\n
So, how to approach the keystone? It\u2019s a real pick-your-poison position. In most leagues, there are maybe six or seven guys who are significantly higher than the position\u2019s replacement level. If you end up waiting, you can just grab someone cheap, knowing that you might end up with someone from the wire by the midpoint of the year. That said, Marte, Chisolm and Turang all give you a big advantage over other teams.<\/p>\n
2B draft targets<\/p>\n
Brice Turang
\nGleyber Torres
\nOzzie Albies<\/p>\n
Turang in the right builds, but more realistically, I\u2019ll grab Torres or Albies and hunt for value elsewhere. I have a hard time finding a star at a price I like at this position.<\/p>\n
Category unicorns<\/p>\n
AVG: Arraez (.299) will qualify here before long, Hoerner (.278), Edwards (.277)
\nRBI\/R: No real standouts. Marte (87 R, 89 RBI) leads the pack by a wide margin
\nHR: Marte and Chisholm are projected in the high-20s — by far the most of anyone at the position.
\nSB: Jose Caballero is projected to steal 38 in half a season (though he\u2019s unlikely to be a regular once Anthony Volpe comes back, so league format will matter here). Chisholm and Turang have the next highest projections, but there\u2019s plenty of speed at second base.
\nShortstops<\/p>\n
Positional Adjustment: $12.5 ($6.9 with no MI\/CI)<\/p>\n
Shortstop has one of the steeper drops, but unlike other positions, the slope is fairly consistent. After a big initial drop, it descends quickly, with no real plateau until we get into the double-digit rankings. There\u2019s nothing wrong with springing for a big name. By projections, you\u2019re basically getting what you pay for in the first seven picks, and there is clear separation between the top and the middle group. It\u2019s in that middle group, however, where projections and ADP veer in different directions, and there is potential profit in waiting or shopping there for your middle infielder.<\/p>\n
Bobby Witt is typically the third player off the board and the clear standout at the position at $45.9, compared to second-place Gunnar Henderson at $32.<\/p>\n
Yes, I said second-place Gunnar Henderson. While drafters have shown a clear preference for Elly De La Cruz, ATC (and most other systems) has Henderson just ahead, mainly due to his better average and power. If you think De La Cruz can have 60+ stolen bases, as he did in 2024, then projections are underselling him.<\/p>\n
After the top three, there is a mini-tier of Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor and Zach Neto. Drafters are putting a 30-pick gap between Neto and Mookie Betts, but ATC says that the Dodger is only a half step below.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s after Betts, however, that projections and drafters start telling very different stories. Geraldo Perdomo and CJ Abrams (along with Maikel Garcia, where qualified) all have ADPs in the 60s, followed by bat-forward veterans Bo Bichette and Corey Seager about 20 picks later, with Jeremy Pe\u00f1a going just after.<\/p>\n
ATC says you can make some serious profit here: It likes Pe\u00f1a and Bichette the best of those just listed, but once you get past them, you can tune out on the position until pick No. 130 and get value equal to Perdomo, Abrams and Seager with the relatively forgotten Willy Adames. If you miss out on him, you can wait another 70 picks and only drop $1.5 to get Ezequiel Tovar.<\/p>\n
Essentially, Adames makes up for his weak average with 27 homers, 11 steals and R\/RBI production near the top of his position, due to his everyday presence in the middle of the lineup and decent OBP. Tovar has the flimsier profile, but projections still see a solid average and 20 homers. He\u2019s sneaky productive at pick No. 200, but if you\u2019re relying on him, hopefully you loaded up elsewhere on the way.<\/p>\n
The resurgent Trevor Story is Tovar\u2019s flip side \u2014 projections see him as essentially equal to the Rockie, but he\u2019s being drafted nearly 100 picks earlier. ATC gives him 575 plate appearances, so he can out-earn that projection simply by reaching 650, like he did last year — his first time doing so since 2019. He\u2019s too risky for me unless he falls, but he was a huge profit last year. If Tovar is too much of a reach for you, you can compromise with Dansby Swanson, who goes around pick No. 150 \u2014 he gives you a boring but solid $12 projection, just below the other two.<\/p>\n
Finally, you\u2019ll notice there was no mention of Konnor Griffin, Kevin McGonigle or other top prospects. They rarely show up as values in projection systems before they\u2019ve played in MLB, but I\u2019m all over Griffin at his 205 ADP, especially in shallow leagues.<\/p>\n
SS draft targets<\/p>\n
Gunnar Henderson
\nWilly Adames
\nMookie Betts (if he falls enough). <\/p>\n
I love Henderson, but if someone else beats me to him, Betts and Adames still provide excellent production, especially at the price.<\/p>\n
Category unicorns<\/p>\n
It\u2019s hard to stand out in such a loaded position, but some players find a way. I won\u2019t bother to list him in every category and just tell you that Witt ranks first in every category, except steals, where he\u2019s third. He\u2019s pretty good.<\/p>\n
AVG: Jacob Wilson (.293 projected), followed by Bichette (.285) and Turner (.283)
\nRBI: Witt is the only standout (92), followed by Adames (84)
\nR: Here it\u2019s mostly the big stars: Henderson (97), De La Cruz (93) and Lindor (91). In the mid rounds, you can get a boost from Perdomo and Betts (both 89)
\nHR: No mythic beasts here, but Witt, Adames, Seager, Neto and Henderson all project in the high-20s.
\nSB: De La Cruz (41), Caballero (38), Xavier Edwards (27) can give you a late-round boost without the full hit to your other stats that Caballero brings.
\nThird base<\/p>\n
Positional adjustment: $13.8 ($17 with no MI\/CI)<\/p>\n
Third base has two superstars, followed by a drop and then a gentle decline, before another significant fall. There are, however, plenty of intriguing names in the later rounds.<\/p>\n
We start, of course, with the phenomenal Jose Ramirez and fearsome Junior Caminero. From there, we get one of the bigger drops in any position from Caminero\u2019s $38.5 to Manny Machado\u2019s $24.3.<\/p>\n
Machado to Maikel Garcia represents a solid second tier (which includes Chisholm, who was discussed above). Within that group, you have a few different profiles. Garcia and Chisholm are your multi-position-eligible speedsters. Machado, Austin Riley and Eugenio Su\u00e1rez are the sluggers, but the latter hurts you with batting average while making up for it with gaudy power totals.<\/p>\n
From there, we drop to Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman, who are your last solid options before we take another plunge into some bizarre territory. How do you like Alec Bohm\u2019s chances of holding onto playing time and putting up decent numbers? I\u2019m in on Sal Stewart, Kazuma Okamoto and Noelvi Marte, but it\u2019s a lot to ask of them to hold down one of your fantasy positions, especially when their teams have plenty of depth (which, for Marte and Stewart, includes each other).<\/p>\n
Then, it\u2019s your standard mix of boring (Miguel Vargas, Nolan Arenado) and unreliable (Royce Lewis, Max Muncy). But there are guys I like here. Caleb Durbin could be a nice fit in Boston. Addison Barger didn\u2019t make the chart with his -$7.4 projection, but that\u2019s on 470 plate appearances. I could see him getting significant time against lefties and 100 more PAs than that projection.<\/p>\n
3B draft targets<\/p>\n
Austin Riley
\nMatt Chapman<\/p>\n
I won\u2019t say no to either of the two elite options here, but otherwise I\u2019ll take these solid vets. I\u2019m in on Stewart and Marte, but I don\u2019t want to rely on them or anyone in their tier.<\/p>\n
Category unicorns<\/p>\n
AVG: No one? Your best projections are Ramirez and Durbin (.273), followed by Caminero (.270) and Garcia (.268)
\nRBI: Caminero (103), Su\u00e1rez (95). Also, if you think the projection is too aggressive on Su\u00e1rez, you should bump him down to the Bregman\/Chapman tier.
\nR: Just Ramirez (92)
\nHR: Caminero (36), Su\u00e1rez (34). Jake Burger (25) can be a late-round fixer.
\nSB: Ramirez (33), Chisholm (32), Garcia (26). Durbin (21) is your mid-round helper here.
\nCatcher<\/p>\n
Your league settings matter a ton here. If you\u2019re in a two-catcher league, the positional adjustment goes up $8, and Cal Raleigh is a potential first-rounder. Less intuitively, the adjustment is almost as large if you take out middle and corner infielders, because the replacement level on other infielders is a lot higher. If you\u2019re somehow playing in a two-catcher, no MI\/CI league, Raleigh is projected as the fourth-most valuable hitter and Hunter Goodman (!) is 13th.<\/p>\n
Positional adjustment: $15.7 ($23.6 in two-catcher leagues)<\/p>\n
Raleigh dominates his position like few others, but catcher is surprisingly robust after him. Goodman, with his power and Coors-inflated average and William Contreras, Shea Langeliers, Ben Rice and Salvador Perez provide a strong second tier. Comparing projections to ADP, Goodman and Perez are the values here. There are some equally good hitters in the next group, but this is where you want to shop if you want playing time. All of them will see some time at DH (Langeliers less than the others), and Rice is a first baseman now, though he could lose time against lefties.<\/p>\n
But back to “Big Dumper.” His 60-homer 2025 is a season that every projection system will call an outlier. All of them dial him back to 37-44 homers, even with close to full playing time. Given the gains he made in barrel rate, pull rate and maximum exit velocity, that might be too conservative. It\u2019s hard to put a 50-homer season on anyone, but if you think Raleigh has another one in him, there\u2019s profit to be made with the top pick.<\/p>\n
In a one-catcher league, you almost can\u2019t go wrong. Raleigh is awesome, the second tier is solid, and the next group of Ivan Herrera (where qualified), Will Smith, Drake Baldwin, Yainer Diaz and Agust\u00edn Ramirez gives you plenty to work with too. Drafters haven\u2019t been as high on Goodman or Diaz, so they\u2019re the projection picks. I like Goodman, but I have a harder time talking myself into Diaz. Ramirez spends half his time at DH and throws in a good number of steals, though he gives back some of that value with his batting average.<\/p>\n
Still don\u2019t have a catcher? No worries! Adley Rutschman, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno make for passable options further down (and with Rutschman, you can dream more), and you\u2019ll get something from J.T. Realmuto and Ryan Jeffers.<\/p>\n
If I\u2019ve waited this long, as I so often do, I\u2019m grabbing a cheap option and scouring the waiver wire. Kyle Teel, Carter Jensen, Samuel Basallo, Edgar Quero and Mois\u00e9s Ballesteros all have breakout potential. Francisco Alvarez, Logan O\u2019Hoppe and Tyler Stephenson are worth monitoring for bounce-back seasons.<\/p>\n
C draft targets (two-catcher leagues)<\/p>\n
For a first catcher who plays often:<\/p>\n
Shea Langeliers
\nWilliam Contreras
\nHunter Goodman<\/p>\n
For a second catcher:<\/p>\n
Ivan Herrera
\nAdley Rutschman
\nAleejandro Kirk<\/p>\n
For one-catcher leagues, I\u2019m more likely to see who falls in the draft and then scour the wire for breakouts.<\/p>\n
Category unicorns<\/p>\n
AVG: We need to lower the bar here. A little lower \u2026 lower \u2026 OK, that\u2019s good. Moreno (.275), Diaz (.269), Kirk (.267). For deep-leaguers, Iv\u00e1n Herrera (.268)
\nRBI: Raleigh (101) — big gap — Perez (88), Goodman (86)
\nR: No real unicorns. Top projections are Raleigh (85), Contreras (76) and Rice (74)
\nHR: Raleigh (39)
\nSB: Ram\u00edrez (12)
\nOutfield <\/p>\n
Because there are so many outfielders, there are no big drops in projected value across outfielders after the first few names. The excess supply also means that the calculator\u2019s positional adjustment is almost as affected by the presence or absence of an MI\/CI as it is by going from three to five outfielders. Either way, we\u2019re talking about a $3 spread in the large majority of leagues.<\/p>\n
Positional adjustment: $10.4 for three outfielders, $12.6 for four, $13.1 for five<\/p>\n
I covered many of the top names in my article about navigating the first round<\/a>, if you\u2019re looking for a deeper dive. Because I\u2019m usually not too worried about the drop from one guy to the next in the outfield, I usually draft OFs (and pitchers) in the middle rounds if I don\u2019t like what I see in other places.<\/p>\nThat said, you also don\u2019t want to miss out on the big names because there is so much value at the top. Six of the top-10 projected hitters are outfielders.<\/p>\n
There are a lot of tantalizing names. Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, Roman Anthony and James Wood could become first-rounders next year. Projections don\u2019t see breakouts coming and tend to see relative values in the lower-ceiling guys: Seiya Suzuki, Teoscar Hernandez, Taylor Ward and Brandon Nimmo are some of the high-floor OFs who fall a bit in drafts.<\/p>\n
One approach is to balance a high-ceiling pick with some bankable value. Another is to pay for the exciting names and back those up with guys like Ian Happ and Heliot Ramos. In a shallow league, I\u2019m more inclined to aim for ceiling. In a league with 60+ starting outfield spots, I\u2019ll want more balance, while still saving space for high-ceiling dart throws.<\/p>\n
OF draft targets<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll skip the first round here and give you some names I like at their price:<\/p>\n
Roman Anthony
\nBrent Rooker
\nSeiya Suzuki
\nKyle Stowers
\nJac Caglianone<\/p>\n
Anthony isn\u2019t cheap, but I could see him launching into the top-15 hitters this year. <\/p>\n
Category unicorns (I\u2019m excluding first-round players here)<\/p>\n
AVG: Yordan Alvarez (.292), Chandler Simpson (.285)
\nRBI: Rooker (96), Riley Greene (89)
\nR: There are no specialists here. The specialists are the Round 1 studs.
\nHR: Rooker (33), Jo Adell (30). For later rounds, Daulton Varsho (26), Matt Wallner (24)
\nSB: Simpson (42), Caballero (38), Jakob Marsee (34), Pete Crow-Armstrong (33), Victor Scott (33)<\/p>\n
Good luck out there, and let me know how you\u2019re navigating the trickier positions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"You can go into your fantasy baseball draft with a plan, but it had better be flexible. You…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":618259,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2276],"tags":[5,28,2291,4,1586],"class_list":{"0":"post-618258","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-draft","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-fantasy-baseball","10":"tag-major-league-baseball-draft","11":"tag-mlb","12":"tag-mlb-draft"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116209861509808430","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=618258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618258\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/618259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=618258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=618258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=618258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}