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Eric KarabellMar 12, 2026, 11:51 AM<\/p>\n
Close<\/a>Eric Karabell is a senior writer for fantasy baseball, football and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame and author of “The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments”.<\/p>\n Multiple Authors<\/p>\n San Francisco Giants<\/a> RHP Logan Webb<\/a> did not lead the major leagues in wins, strikeouts, ERA or WHIP last season. In fact, he has never led MLB in any of these categories. Webb did, however, lead all pitchers in both starts and innings pitched last season. This is not new territory for Webb, who leads all of baseball in these categories since the start of the 2022 season. Webb doesn’t merely eat innings, though. He ranks third in wins and boasts a 3.22 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP over that span. Webb isn’t the best pitcher in baseball, but he remains, despite uncommon consistency and reliability, somehow underrated.<\/p>\n In fact, Webb may not be among the first 10 starting pitchers off the draft board in your league, but he deserves this attention. In a world in which precious few hurlers escape unscathed from serious arm injuries, Webb is the unicorn. The Giants and fantasy managers<\/a> can count on durability and solid performance. Webb’s ERA cannot match that of, say Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> LHP Blake Snell<\/a>, and Webb lacks Snell’s Cy Young awards, but dependability matters. Ask anyone who invested early in Snell, Corbin Burnes<\/a>, Cole Ragans<\/a>, George Kirby<\/a> and Gerrit Cole<\/a> last season whether they would have preferred a 200-IP fellow instead.<\/p>\n Sign up for free fantasy baseball<\/p>\n The 2026 fantasy baseball season is here! Get the group together, or start a brand-new tradition. As usual, this season’s “Do Draft” list is far more upbeat than its ESPN companion piece the “Do NOT Draft” list<\/a>, for it is beaming with players in which I heartily choose to invest, at least in collaboration with average live draft position (ADP). After all, it is still all about the value. No, Webb is not worth a first-round pick. He is, however, a staff ace and a building block. Webb is perennially a solid value, and he’s now coming off his first 200-K campaign. Don’t let us down this year, Logan!<\/p>\n Webb is one of many players who seem to keep finding their way onto my myriad teams, either the mock drafts or the ones that really count. You should always use some combination of statistical proof and “your gut” to find the players you want on your teams, and I admit I am more of a roto\/categories fantasy player than points-league maven, so my thoughts below reflect this. Ultimately, regardless of the scoring system, it is always about evaluating talent and value.<\/p>\n Other players to grab as often as possibleCatcherMen’s Tournament Challenge<\/p>\n Sign up now to play the #1 Men’s bracket game for FREE! $125,000 in prizes. To be clear, catcher is just about the last spot where I actually target players. Catchers notably play less than other position players, often due to injury, and they frequently play through injuries and struggle. If they happen to break that mold one season (like Cal Raleigh<\/a> in 2025), it hardly means a repeat is pending. In ESPN leagues, with only one active catcher needed, I generally wait until the end of drafts.<\/p>\n I would say Dodgers veteran Will Smith<\/a> is one exception, as he rarely costs a top-75 pick and few backstops offer his five-category consistency. No team offers that combination of a top-heavy and deep lineup. … Atlanta Braves<\/a> C Drake Baldwin<\/a> was terrific in his rookie season and, with the team’s DH spot open, he should play even more this season. … Do not overlook that Minnesota Twins<\/a> starter Ryan Jeffers<\/a> hit 21 home runs in 2024 and he is a walker. Fantasy managers should not assume what happened two seasons ago cannot occur again.<\/p>\n Deeper: Cincinnati Reds<\/a> starter Tyler Stephenson<\/a> hit 19 home runs two seasons ago. If he can handle the workload, he is underrated. … Atlanta’s Sean Murphy<\/a> hasn’t been healthy since 2023, and he isn’t today, but the power and potentially opportunity remains. … Washington Nationals<\/a> rookie Harry Ford<\/a> should steal double-digit bases and hit for a decent average, at least. … Miami Marlins<\/a> rookie Joe Mack<\/a> boasts power upside. … So does Giants backup and Rule 5 pick Daniel Susac<\/a>.<\/p>\n Dodgers veteran Freddie Freeman<\/a> may be falling too far in drafts. He is the Webb of first basemen, with solid, dependable numbers. Would it surprise if he wins his first batting title? … What must Chicago Cubs<\/a> potential leadoff hitter Michael Busch<\/a> do to earn a top-100 ADP? While he may see more left-handed pitching this season, he may also score 100 runs. … I don’t want to assume Tampa Bay Rays<\/a> starter Jonathan Aranda<\/a> can’t hit 25 home runs. He destroys right-handed pitching. He feels underrated. … Houston Astros<\/a> starter Christian Walker<\/a> should be more comfortable in his second season with the club. Watch him return to 35 homers. His ADP underwhelms.<\/p>\n Deeper: Like Walker, Texas Rangers<\/a> starter Jake Burger<\/a> may never contend for a batting title, but I am ignoring his rough first season in Texas. A 35-HR option lurks. … Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a> starter (and potential leadoff option versus RHP) Spencer Horwitz<\/a> sure gets on base. He should be safe for batting average and may hit 15-plus home runs. … Give me all the Rhys Hoskins<\/a> shares. His ADP will continue rising. This is Cleveland’s DH and a clear 30-HR threat when healthy.<\/p>\n Second baseWomen’s Tournament Challenge<\/p>\n Sign up now to play the #1 Women’s bracket game for FREE! $125,000 in prizes. Baltimore Orioles<\/a> starter Jackson Holliday<\/a> (hand) likely opens the season on the IL, but there remains 25\/25 potential, eventually. His injury has pushed his ADP down too far. Take advantage of it. … Twins youngster Luke Keaschall<\/a> is fast and aggressive enough to steal 50 bases and disciplined enough to offer a .350 OBP. Look for him at a mid-round ADP. … Philadelphia Phillies<\/a> starter Bryson Stott<\/a> has averaged 29 stolen bases over three seasons and he hit .294\/.368\/.487 in 2025’s second half. … Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> IF Ernie Clement<\/a>, postseason star, qualifies at three infield spots. We can dream of 15-plus homers. … New York Yankees<\/a> speedster Jose Caballero<\/a> found a way to steal 93 bases over the last two seasons. He is eligible at three infield spots and the outfield.<\/p>\n Deeper: I am surprised Colorado Rockies<\/a> offseason signing Willi Castro<\/a> is an ADP non-factor. Castro will start a lot, he stole 33 bases two seasons ago, and playing half his games at Coors Field can’t hurt. … San Diego Padres<\/a> starter Jake Cronenworth<\/a> posted a .367 OBP. He had 17 HR and 83 RBI two seasons ago and he may lead off this season. … Luis Rengifo<\/a>, stealer of 24 bases two seasons ago, is healthy and probably starting at third base for the smarter-than-you Milwaukee Brewers<\/a>.<\/p>\n It is understandable that Orioles star Gunnar Henderson<\/a> fell out of the first round after a disappointing power season, but check out those awesome 2024 numbers. He is 25. He can really shine again. … Los Angeles Angels<\/a> star Zach Neto<\/a> started last season late after shoulder surgery and still approached 30\/30. He is priced accordingly, but his best season is pending, so overpaying may be warranted.<\/p>\n Giants starter Willy Adames<\/a> and Cubs starter Dansby Swanson<\/a> aren’t batting-title threats, but they both have consistent power, speed and durability for mid-draft ADP. … Pirates rookie Konnor Griffin<\/a> may become a bit too coveted in ADP soon, but it may be worth it. Shortstop is deep. There will be free-agent options in deeper formats if the Pirates foolishly demote their next star for financial reasons.<\/p>\n Deeper: For example, St. Louis Cardinals<\/a> prospect JJ Wetherholt<\/a> and Detroit Tigers<\/a> prospect Kevin McGonigle<\/a> may win Opening Day roles. They aren’t Griffin-like in terms of power, but they can play, and they have low ADP. … Yankees starter Anthony Volpe<\/a> starts the season on the IL. While his is a low batting average, he has averaged 17 home runs and 23 steals across three seasons. One can do worse.<\/p>\n Third base<\/p>\n I don’t see many safe, reliable choices in the second half of drafts, so I may be more likely to secure consistent Padres star Manny Machado<\/a> early, or Giants defender Matt Chapman<\/a> around the top 100. Chapman is a walker with 27 home runs in three of five seasons, and a mid-round bargain. … It may feel like well-traveled Astro Isaac Paredes<\/a> isn’t a lock for playing time, but this is too much power to simply not play. He has averaged 26 homers per 162 games for his career. … I seldom praise Phillies starter Alec Bohm<\/a>, but his ADP has fallen too much. He will hit cleanup again, and he did knock in 97 runs twice with safe batting averages in 2023-24.<\/p>\n Deeper: Longtime Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> prospect Jordan Lawlar<\/a>, now starting in CF, will finally (mercifully) break out the power and speed so many expected for years. What a great late-round pick! … There is nothing blocking Cardinals slugger Nolan Gorman<\/a> from finally hitting 30 home runs. Some singles to prop up the batting average would be OK, too. … I don’t know how the Padres can get 400 PA (and 20 home runs) for both 3B Miguel Andujar<\/a> and OF Nick Castellanos<\/a>, but I would pay to find out in deep leagues. … Phillies platoon option Otto Kemp<\/a> will hit. … So will Dodgers rookie Alex Freeland<\/a>.<\/p>\n OutfieldEditor’s Picks 1 Related<\/p>\n Astros star Yordan Alvarez<\/a> did not hit 30 home runs last season, but he did it the prior four seasons. I believe he hits 30 home runs again in 2026. … Boston Red Sox<\/a> leadoff hitter Roman Anthony<\/a> will eventually be moved to the No. 3 lineup spot. Too much power, like, perhaps, 35-HR power, soon. … Athletics<\/a> slugger Brent Rooker<\/a> remains a target for 40 home runs. … Disregard what Padres star Jackson Merrill<\/a> did not do last season when injured. Don’t expect 30 home runs or 20 steals, but he will hit.<\/p>\n Let us not assume Blue Jays veteran George Springer<\/a> cannot repeat his incredible 2025 season. If he plays 140 games again, he can. … As with Merrill, I am ignoring what happened to Rockies OF Brenton Doyle<\/a>. We know a potential top-20 OF lurks. … Doyle’s colleague Jordan Beck<\/a> is capable of more, too. … Tigers slugger Kerry Carpenter<\/a> needs to find his old walk rate. If he does, he can hit 35 home runs. … Yankees slugger Trent Grisham<\/a> just hit 34 home runs and walked 82 times and you’re telling me definitively he cannot do that again? Um, why?<\/p>\n Deeper: Well, new Angels acquisition Josh Lowe<\/a> did combine 20 home runs with 32 steals in 2023. It was a .835 OPS. He is not too old. … Rangers OF Evan Carter<\/a> also lacks some durability, but he is 23, is fast, and he can draw a walk. Dream on. … The Cleveland Guardians<\/a> expect big things from rookie Chase DeLauter<\/a>. Just. Stay. Healthy. … I take the “under” on Phillies rookie Justin Crawford<\/a> hitting above .250 or stealing 40 bases, but he is going to play a lot. … It seems premature to give up on Astros kid Cam Smith<\/a>. … Ryan Waldschmidt<\/a> will debut in April and there is power and speed here. … Take a chance, in truly deep leagues, on the Rays’ Jonny DeLuca<\/a>, Pirates runner Jake Mangum<\/a>, Astros prospect Zach Cole<\/a>, Cardinals prospect Joshua Baez<\/a> and the Marlins’ Christopher Morel<\/a> and Griffin Conine<\/a>.<\/p>\n I like to get an anchor starter these days, even if they are not an ADP bargain (like Webb). That is OK, too. … Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler<\/a> (shoulder) will make more than 25 starts, and the other numbers will be there. … I worry a bit about Twins RHP Joe Ryan<\/a> with a sore back and pitching for a bad club, but I cannot ignore his strikeout rates and a career 1.06 WHIP. Since Ryan debuted, only five hurlers have a better WHIP. … New Tiger Framber Valdez<\/a> has fallen too far in ADP. … It also seems like few believe Padres RHP Nick Pivetta<\/a> is capable of doing it again. … I must believe healthy Braves RHP Spencer Strider<\/a> returns to his 2023 ERA\/WHIP and 200 K are in play.<\/p>\n Few seem to target new Red Sox RHP Sonny Gray<\/a>, but his are relatively safe, repeatable numbers. … I do not expect more than 25 Nathan Eovaldi<\/a> starts, but like his pal Jacob deGrom<\/a>, the starts he makes will be good and deGrom costs far, far more. … You may not want Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen<\/a> in a quality starts format, but all the other numbers are solid. … Mariners RHP Luis Castillo<\/a> remains dependable. His ADP is down too much. … No, Orioles LHP Trevor Rogers<\/a> can’t do that again, but why can’t we get typical “Luis Castillo numbers” from him? … I buy how Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd<\/a> performed in 2026, though I may be alone. … I buy how Phillies RHP Aaron Nola<\/a> performed prior to 2026, though again, I may be alone.<\/p>\n Deeper: Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly<\/a> is better than most realize. If healthy, that is a top-50 SP. … Padres RHP Joe Musgrove<\/a> sure seems healthy and back to his old self. … Why can’t White Sox RHP Shane Smith<\/a> repeat his rookie season? The team should modestly improve. … Even a half-season of Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole<\/a> is worth drafting in ESPN formats. … Twins RHP Zebby Matthews<\/a> has become one of the most popular analytical darlings out there for a reason. … The Guardians always seem to figure their rotation out, and LHPs Joey Cantillo<\/a> and Parker Messick<\/a> should each make 20-plus starts.<\/p>\n Others: Astros RHP Mike Burrows<\/a>, Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios<\/a>, Mets RHP Clay Holmes<\/a>, Atlanta RHPs Grant Holmes<\/a> and Reynaldo Lopez<\/a> … and, eventually, Diamondbacks RHP Corbin Burnes<\/a>, Cubs LHP Justin Steele<\/a> and Pirates RHP Jared Jones<\/a>.<\/p>\n Relief pitcher<\/p>\n I typically avoid the top closers but — focusing on saves here — will be comfortable with Atlanta RHP Raisel Iglesias<\/a>, Reds RHP Emilio Pagan<\/a>, Cubs RHP Daniel Palencia<\/a> and Tigers RHP Kenley Jansen<\/a>. … Later, I expect saves from Brewers RHP Abner Uribe<\/a>, Rays RHP Griffin Jax<\/a> and Athletics RHP Justin Sterner<\/a>. … For a tasty combination of saves and holds, it is tough to beat Astros RHP Bryan Abreu<\/a>.<\/p>\n Deeper: Even later, how about some saves (and holds) for Jays RHP Louis Varland<\/a>, Diamondbacks RHP Paul Sewald<\/a> (yes, again), Reds RHP Tony Santillan<\/a>, Phillies RHP Brad Keller<\/a>, Mets RHP Luke Weaver<\/a>, Rangers RHP Alexis Diaz<\/a>, Angels LHP Drew Pomeranz<\/a> and Cardinals RHP Matt Svanson<\/a>?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Eric KarabellMar 12, 2026, 11:51 AM CloseEric Karabell is a senior writer for fantasy baseball, football and basketball…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":620145,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2389],"tags":[42,5,139,54,3211,4],"class_list":{"0":"post-620144","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-houston-astros","8":"tag-astros","9":"tag-baseball","10":"tag-houston","11":"tag-houston-astros","12":"tag-houstonastros","13":"tag-mlb"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116216537946270531","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=620144"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620144\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/620145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=620144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=620144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=620144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/flb-1320x528_01.jpg\")
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Play Men’s Tournament Challenge<\/a><\/p>\nIf you knew Freddie Freeman was going to win the batting title, where would you want to draft him in your leagues?\u00a0Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn ImagesFirst base<\/p>\n
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Play Women’s Tournament Challenge<\/a><\/p>\nGunnar Henderson may not be worth a first-round pick, but the Team USA and Baltimore shortstop is still being taken way too low.\u00a0Troy Taormina-Imagn ImagesShortstop<\/p>\n
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<\/a><\/p>\nFramber Valdez is now in Detroit — and his ADP is definitely in the wrong neighborhood as a result.\u00a0Julio Aguilar\/Getty ImagesStarting pitcher<\/p>\n