{"id":625336,"date":"2026-03-15T18:44:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T18:44:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/625336\/"},"modified":"2026-03-15T18:44:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T18:44:50","slug":"mens-ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-vcu-bid-thieves-and-more-selection-sunday-storylines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/625336\/","title":{"rendered":"Men\u2019s NCAA Tournament bubble watch: VCU, bid thieves and more Selection Sunday storylines"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of the men\u2019s NCAA Tournament Selection Show and bracket reveal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s note: This article is part of the\u00a0Bracket Central<\/a>\u00a0series, an inside look at the run-up to the men\u2019s & women\u2019s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.<\/p>\n

Selection Sunday has arrived, which means the bill has come due for every bubble team. All of the big wins and bad losses are under the microscope until the selection show.<\/p>\n

The biggest game of the day comes in the Atlantic 10, where Dayton looms as a potential bid stealer after a heart-stopping semifinal win over Saint Louis<\/a>. That would assume that VCU has already done enough to earn an at-large bid, which is debatable in itself. Regardless, all bubble squads will be cheering for the black and gold in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n

Should Dayton win and VCU still be in the field, that would create the first three-bid Atlantic 10 since 2018, a massive achievement for the basketball-first conference. It is assumed that Saint Louis has already earned its way in, so Sunday could mark a banner day for the league.<\/p>\n

Check out the primer below before you dive into our final bubble rundown; many of the key terms will be repeated throughout the article. And for a projection of the actual bracket, here\u2019s Joe Rexrode\u2019s latest Bracket Watch<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
\nLocks\u00a0are teams that have reached a 100 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per\u00a0Bart Torvik\u2019s TourneyCast<\/a>. This blends both current resume and forward-looking projections.
\nShould Be In\u00a0teams are close to Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
\nIn the Mix\u00a0teams are the true bubble cases.
\nOn the Fringe\u00a0teams are a few wins short of true bubble consideration.
\nResume metrics\u00a0are backward-looking and try to measure a team\u2019s accomplishments. Think: \u201cWhat has this team done?\u201d These metrics are more important for\u00a0selection to the field.
\nQuality metrics\u00a0are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: \u201cHow good is this team?\u201d These metrics are more influential for\u00a0seeding.
\nCurrent Totals<\/p>\n

Locks:\u00a038
Should Be In:\u00a02
In the Mix:\u00a014
On the Fringe:\u00a09<\/p>\n

ACC<\/p>\n

Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), North Carolina, Virginia
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: California, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech
On the Fringe: Florida State, Stanford<\/p>\n

In The Mix<\/p>\n

California (21-11, 9-9; WAB rank: 54)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference strength of schedule, poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: It had to be a long, tense plane ride home to Berkeley after Cal went one-and-done at the ACC tournament in Charlotte. The Bears were beaten soundly by Florida State, preventing any chance of Mark Madsen\u2019s team improving its case with a postseason run. We will not say the Bears are finished thanks to the carnage all around them, but this seems like a steep uphill path to the bracket, and Cal is out of climbing gear.<\/p>\n

NC State (20-13, 10-8; WAB rank: 43)
Profile Strengths: Overall strong metrics, solid Q1\/Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess an awful Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Wolfpack came up short against Virginia on Thursday despite battling to the bitter end. If we had to guess, NC State did enough throughout the season (barely) to overcome its late swoon and warrant an at-large bid. But the Wolfpack are still vulnerable to a shrinking bubble, and they certainly will not be comfortable on Selection Sunday until they see their name revealed.<\/p>\n

SMU (20-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 45)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited high-end wins, 9-13 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Like many other bubble rivals, SMU lost on Wednesday. The mild difference for the Mustangs: They got a somewhat helpful win against Syracuse Tuesday, and they arguably had the \u201cbest\u201d loss on the bubble, falling to a surefire NCAA Tournament team in Louisville. That matters because it will create far less drag on their resume metrics, allowing them to \u201crise\u201d simply by falling less. They remain subject to the whims of bid stealers.<\/p>\n

Virginia Tech (19-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 51)
Profile Strengths: Decent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Hokies could not beat Wake Forest for a second time in three weeks, falling in overtime as starting forward Amani Hansberry surprisingly had to sit due to injury. That\u2019s only a Q2 loss, but the Hokies needed to gain ground in Charlotte. Instead they slid incrementally backwards. Barring a mini-miracle olive branch from the committee, Virginia Tech will not hear its name called on Selection Sunday. In anticipation of that fate, the Hokies preemptively announced<\/a> they would not be playing in the NIT on Friday.<\/p>\n

Big 12<\/p>\n

Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Cincinnati
On the Fringe: Arizona State, Oklahoma State<\/p>\n

In the Mix<\/p>\n

Cincinnati (18-15, 9-9); WAB rank: 66)
Profile Strengths: Two high-end Q1A wins, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess a Q4 loss, poor resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: Cincinnati desperately needed a run at the Big 12 tournament, but the Bearcats lost to UCF in the second round. They did not score a point in the final 2:17 of regulation and lost in overtime, likely dashing their hopes of clawing their way back into the NCAA Tournament with a late-season rally. Their resume metrics simply are not good enough at this stage to realistically expect an at-large bid.<\/p>\n

Big East<\/p>\n

Locks: St. John\u2019s, UConn, Villanova
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Seton Hall
On the Fringe: None<\/p>\n

In The Mix<\/p>\n

Seton Hall (21-12, 10-10; WAB rank: 56)
Profile Strengths: Didn\u2019t lose right away in the conference tournament?
Profile Weaknesses: Iffy metrics, only one Q1 win, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The third time was not the charm for Seton Hall. The Pirates got a third crack at St. John\u2019s, and a win on Friday night could realistically have vaulted them into the field. They came up short again, though, and barring a stunning decision from the selection committee, the Big East looks like a three-bid league for the second time in three seasons. Seton Hall simply does not have enough heft to its resume.<\/p>\n

Big Ten<\/p>\n

Locks: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana
On the Fringe: USC<\/p>\n

In The Mix<\/p>\n

Indiana (18-14, 9-11; WAB rank: 52)
Profile Strengths: Two excellent high-end Q1A victories, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 6-14 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: If other bubble teams are fading from view, then Indiana is outright sprinting away. The Hoosiers dropped six of their final seven games, including two to sub-.500 Northwestern (at home and on a neutral court), and are now barely clinging to life. Their profile just does not have enough juice to inspire any sort of confidence. Their only hope is that all remaining bid stealers lose and maybe the committee even feels bad for leaving coach Darian DeVries out of the field last year, when DeVries\u2019 West Virginia team was a shocking exclusion.<\/p>\n

SEC<\/p>\n

Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Texas A&M
In the Mix: Auburn, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None<\/p>\n

Should Be In<\/p>\n

Texas A&M (21-11, 11-7; WAB rank: 39)
What They Need: The Aggies lost convincingly to Oklahoma on Thursday night, but they remain in solid shape due to their season-long body of work. Their neutral-site win over Florida State (by 36!) has aged like fine wine, and an 11-7 league record \u2014 albeit against a softer SEC slate \u2014 looks good, as well. The extra wrinkle: Texas A&M lost to Alabama by three on the road in a game that the now-ineligible Charles Bediako played for the Crimson Tide<\/a>. Texas A&M may not need any extra consideration, but if the selection committee digs into that nuance, it would only help the Aggies\u2019 already strong case. We expect this team to hear its name on Selection Sunday.<\/p>\n

In The Mix<\/p>\n

Auburn (17-16, 7-11; WAB rank: 44)
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, way under .500 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: After an impressive first half, the Tigers faded late and could not finish the job. Is that A) a description of Auburn\u2019s season; B) a summary of their loss to Tennessee on Thursday or C) both? If you answered C, congratulations! Steven Pearl\u2019s team could not close the deal against the Volunteers and will now have to bank on the rest of the bubble\u2019s weakness<\/a> and its elite schedule strength to sneak into the dance. No team has ever gotten in with 16 losses, nor has anyone made the field with an overall record only one game above .500. Auburn must hope for special consideration to sneak into Dayton.<\/p>\n

Missouri (20-12, 10-8; WAB rank: 41)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, five Q1 wins, no losses outside of Q1+Q2.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero notable nonconference wins.
What They Need: We are knocking the Tigers down to \u201cIn the Mix\u201d after a three-game losing streak to end the season. All three defeats were of the Q1 variety, but the Tigers are now flirting with the danger zone. Their metrics have held steady-ish above the presumed cut line, but after they played such a barren nonconference schedule, the selection committee would have a very clear reason to exclude them. The wait until Selection Sunday will be painful for Dennis Gates\u2019 team.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma (19-15, 7-11; WAB rank: 49)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, middling metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Sooners came up just short against Arkansas in the SEC quarterfinals, and that leaves them in true bubble purgatory. A win might have sealed up a bid, a stunning outcome considering where this team stood just over a month ago. We have had multiple 19-15 at-large teams in recent history \u2014 most recently, 2025 Texas \u2014 but OU may come up just short despite an admirable late-season surge.<\/p>\n

Texas (18-14, 9-9; WAB rank: 46)
Profile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss, shaky resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: On Wednesday, all Texas needed to do was beat 12-19 Ole Miss to bump themselves past the rest of the fading bubble. The Longhorns did not oblige. They lost five of their final six games and now must wait in a cold sweat until 6 p.m. ET on Sunday evening while cheering ardently against any and all bid stealers. Texas is a true fringe case.<\/p>\n

The Rest<\/p>\n

Locks: Gonzaga, Miami (Ohio), Saint Louis, Saint Mary\u2019s, Utah State
Should Be In: Santa Clara
In the Mix: New Mexico, San Diego State, VCU
On the Fringe: Boise State, Belmont, Nevada, South Florida<\/p>\n

Should Be In<\/p>\n

Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 West Coast; WAB rank: 36)
What They Need: The Broncos put on a strong showing at the WCC tournament, beating Saint Mary\u2019s for a huge Q1 win and then competing with Gonzaga for 40 minutes in the final (they led at halftime). The metrics point toward Santa Clara making the tournament for the first time since 1996.<\/p>\n

In The Mix<\/p>\n

New Mexico (23-10, 13-7 Mountain West; WAB rank: 59)
Profile Strengths: 8-8 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two Q1 wins, took two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: With Eric Olen in his first season as coach, few expected New Mexico to be in at-large contention. The Lobos vastly exceeded external expectations, but that will be a bitter moral victory after they came tantalizingly close to a win over San Diego State in the Mountain West semifinals. That loss could seal New Mexico\u2019s fate as an NIT team. Crazier things have happened, but the Lobos probably do not have enough on their resume to squeak into the NCAA Tournament.<\/p>\n

San Diego State (22-11, 14-6 Mountain West; WAB rank: 47)
Profile Strengths: Excellent NC SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, fringe resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs came up short in the Mountain West title game, which means they will be sweating all the way until the selection show on Sunday. Their metrics sit right on the brink of the bubble, but it now looks possible that the Mountain West could be a one-bid league. An added factor that is not supposed to matter but could to the selection committee: San Diego State snuck into the field last year and got blown out in the First Four. Will any committee members hold a subtle bias against the Aztecs as a result? Again, that should not matter, but these are human beings.<\/p>\n

VCU (26-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10; WAB rank: 40)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Just two Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: All eyes turn to the A-10 title game, where VCU now stands in the way of a Dayton bid steal. After a semifinal win over Saint Joseph\u2019s, the Rams have probably done enough to earn themselves a tournament trip. They are in decent WAB territory entering the title game. On a more human level, though, bracketing the field would be easier for the selection committee if they held one slot open for the A-10 champion than if they had to build two contingency brackets (one with VCU and Dayton, one with just VCU). Could that mean VCU does still need to punch its ticket with a win?<\/p>\n

The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.<\/p>\n

The Athletic\u00a0maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of the men\u2019s NCAA Tournament Selection Show and bracket reveal. Editor\u2019s note: This…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":625337,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2289],"tags":[5086,5,33471,13359,648,13730,16666,17246,4931,1694,2341,3740,5075,24113,19379,54215,3794,80345,16618],"class_list":["post-625336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-college-baseball","tag-auburn-tigers","tag-baseball","tag-california-golden-bears","tag-cincinnati-bearcats","tag-college-baseball","tag-indiana-hoosiers","tag-mens-college-basketball","tag-miami-oh-redhawks","tag-missouri-tigers","tag-ncaa","tag-ncaa-baseball","tag-north-carolina-state-wolfpack","tag-oklahoma-sooners","tag-san-diego-state-aztecs","tag-seton-hall-pirates","tag-smu-mustangs","tag-texas-longhorns","tag-vcu-rams","tag-virginia-tech-hokies"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116234677359756201","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625336"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625336\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/625337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}