{"id":627773,"date":"2026-03-17T08:56:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T08:56:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/627773\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T08:56:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T08:56:19","slug":"gunnar-henderson-roman-anthonys-team-usa-wbc-heroics-show-why-projection-matters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/627773\/","title":{"rendered":"Gunnar Henderson, Roman Anthony’s Team USA WBC Heroics Show Why Projection Matters"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a loaded lineup with first-round picks and established stars, two of Team USA\u2019s younger players delivered decisive blows to beat the Dominican Republic 2-1 in the World Baseball Classic semifinals on Sunday. Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson<\/a> and Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony<\/a> connected for fourth-inning home runs to catapult the Americans back to the WBC final. <\/p>\n

What\u2019s striking is that neither were first-round picks. Yet both have developed into two of the game\u2019s brightest young stars and delivered on a massive stage. <\/p>\n

Related: See World Baseball Classic scores, recaps from every game<\/a><\/p>\n

The parallels between Henderson and Anthony are abundant. Both are Southeast preps\u2014Henderson from Alabama, Anthony from Florida\u2014and each were second-rounders who signed overslot bonuses. Henderson signed for $2.3 million as the 42nd pick in 2019, while Anthony inked a $2.5 million bonus as the 79th pick in 2022. Each ranked as the No. 1 prospect in baseball prior to their big league debut. And each boasts some of the loudest raw power in the game.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gunnar Henderson (2023) and Roman Anthony (2025) were recent Prospect Handbook covers stars. <\/p>\n

Both have already homered tonight on a massive stage. pic.twitter.com\/azkGGoxq0O<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) March 16, 2026<\/p>\n

Henderson is not a regular in the United States lineup, making just two starts prior to tonight\u2019s game. But he drew the start because of his successful history against Dominican Republic starter Luis Severino, and that held true. Henderson took Severino deep in the fourth inning, effectively ending the righty\u2019s night after one more batter.<\/p>\n

That wasn\u2019t Henderson\u2019s only big moment of the night. <\/p>\n

The half-inning prior, Henderson applied the tag on Aaron Judge\u2019s throw to third base that threw out Fernando Tatis Jr. as he tried to nab an extra base on Ketel Marte\u2019s single. The very next at-bat, Henderson went yard to tie the game. <\/p>\n

Anthony followed two batters later with a home run to put the Americans ahead for good. The at-bat was classic Anthony: he got up 3-0 on Gregory Soto before taking a center-cut sinker. Soto went back to the sinker for the fourth consecutive pitch and Anthony fouled it off. On the sixth and final pitch of the at-bat Soto, threw a fifth consecutive sinker, this time over the middle of the plate. Anthony deposited the pitch 421 feet to right-center field.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The bigger question is how did we get here? How did two non-first rounders blossom into two of the best young players in the game?<\/p>\n

Both Henderson and Anthony were billed as power hitters with hit tool questions out of the draft. Our 2020 draft report<\/a> on Henderson mentions plus power upside and an average hit tool. Anthony\u2019s draft report<\/a> said he \u201cstruggled with swing-and-miss issues over the showcase circuit, which raised questions about his pure hitting ability.\u201d The report does note that Anthony showed improved contact skills in the spring high school season, but still billed him as a 45-grade hitter.<\/p>\n

These aren\u2019t simply cases of misevaluation. In fact, it\u2019s quite the opposite. <\/p>\n

Scouting feedback and comments at the time are in-line with all that. Each player and their respective organization focused on developing their plate skills and approach to allow each player to get the most out of their outlier impact.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Henderson\u2019s first three full professional seasons are a perfect example. By the time Henderson was an opening day regular, he had refined his hit tool to the point that his best whiff numbers came during his rookie season.<\/p>\n

YearLevel(s)IZ-WhiffWhiffChaseSwingISO2023MLB18%24.40%26.50%46.80%.2342022AA, AAA23%28.90%18%40.30%.2332021A, A+, AA21%28.60%24%42.50%.218<\/p>\n

You can see that as Henderson improved his swing decisions and contact, his isolated slugging ticked up. While Henderson did see a drop in contact rates in 2022, he saw a significant improvement in his swing decisions, cutting six percentage points off of his chase rate while only swinging at two percent less pitches. Henderson found his best self in his rookie season and is entering his prime at 24 years old. <\/p>\n

Anthony\u2019s development path was far more consistent. Still, it\u2019s clear the Red Sox used his first professional offseason to refine his hit tool in their hitting camps.\u00a0<\/p>\n

YearLevel(s)IZ-WhiffWhiffChaseSwingISO2025MLB17.8%28.5%21.2%38.7%.1712024AA, AAA17.2%24.8%21.2%60.7%.2072023A, A+, AA16.3%25.1%19.1%37.3%.194<\/p>\n

Anthony after being billed as a fringe-average hitter has shown well above-average bat-to-ball skills at every level. While his MLB isolated slugging did drop, it coincided with the highest whiff rates of his professional career.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If Anthony and Henderson prove anything, it\u2019s that scouting hit tools on high school players is an inexact science. Both Henderson and Anthony improved their bat-to-ball ability and approach and it allowed them to unlock their plus-plus raw power and in the biggest moments.<\/p>\n

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