{"id":636200,"date":"2026-03-21T23:42:22","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T23:42:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/636200\/"},"modified":"2026-03-21T23:42:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T23:42:22","slug":"avoid-george-springer-byron-buxton-and-christian-yelich","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/636200\/","title":{"rendered":"Avoid George Springer, Byron Buxton and Christian Yelich"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\tGambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n

In most fantasy baseball articles, so much time is spent discussing which players to draft that few people are warned off the players you need to avoid.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Navigating the outfield landscape, for example, requires a disciplined eye for distinguishing between a true late-career renaissance and a statistical fluke fueled by unsustainable luck. <\/p>\n

Though the allure of \u201cname brand\u201d stars often provides a sense of security during the early rounds of a draft, several veteran outfielders currently are being drafted at a premium based on 2025 totals that they are fundamentally ill-equipped to repeat. <\/p>\n

Chasing last year\u2019s production is the quickest way to sink a roster, especially when the underlying metrics suggest a steep \u201cage cliff\u201d or a reliance on health outcomes that have historically been outliers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

George Springer stands as perhaps the most glaring example of someone to avoid at his current ADP.<\/p>\n

Coming off an age-35 season when he posted a surprising 161 OPS+ and .309 batting average, Springer finished as a top-10 outfielder. <\/p>\n

Nevertheless, a closer look at his peripheral data reveals a player surviving on elite bat-to-ball skills while his physical tools diminish. <\/p>\n

It seems highly improbable that his batting average remains 30 points above his career norm as his bat speed naturally slows. <\/p>\n

Drafting a player at this age coming off career-highs is a bet that rarely pays off in professional baseball.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Similarly, Byron Buxton remains the ultimate \u201cfool\u2019s gold\u201d in fantasy circles. <\/p>\n

His 2025 campaign was a statistical dream, as he managed to stay on the active roster for 126 games while clubbing 35 home runs and finishing a perfect 24-for-24 in stolen base attempts. However, expecting a repeat of this health profile is statistically reckless.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"ByronByron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning against the National League during the 92nd MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard at Dodger Stadium on July 19, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. Getty Images<\/p>\n

Buxton\u2019s aggressive playing style and history of soft-tissue injuries mean that every game played is a borrowed minute. Furthermore, his 100 percent success rate on the basepaths is a massive outlier that screams for negative regression. <\/p>\n

With an ADP that has skyrocketed into the top 40, you are essentially paying for a ceiling that requires a perfect bill of health, something Buxton has achieved just twice in a decade-long career.\u00a0<\/p>\n

You also have Christian Yelich as a prime candidate for a statistical correction this season. Though the fact he played 150 games in 2025 is encouraging, his underlying contact quality told a different story.<\/p>\n

Yelich saw a concerning spike in his strikeout rate, climbing back toward 25 percent, while his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dipped to their lowest levels since his pre-MVP days in Miami.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting<\/p>\n

He has become increasingly reliant on a high BABIP and a ground-ball-heavy approach that finds holes rather than clearing fences. <\/p>\n

As defenders adjust and his foot speed inevitably declines, those singles will turn into outs, and the power won\u2019t be there to compensate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

When you draft an outfielder in the early rounds, you need a high floor. With Springer, Buxton and Yelich, the floor is becoming increasingly shaky as their profiles shift from elite run-producers to volume-dependent veterans. <\/p>\n

Avoiding these three names at their current elevated costs will allow you to pivot toward younger, high-upside talents whose best years are still in front of them.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com<\/a>. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy<\/a>, catch him on the award-winning \u201cFantasy Alarm Radio Show\u201d on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Ch. 87) weekdays from 6-8 p.m. and domin ate your drafts with the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":636201,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2378],"tags":[5,684,377,2554,28,4,722,185,1272,723,282,70,2553],"class_list":{"0":"post-636200","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-toronto-blue-jays","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-betting","10":"tag-blue-jays","11":"tag-bluejays","12":"tag-fantasy-baseball","13":"tag-mlb","14":"tag-mlb-betting","15":"tag-sports","16":"tag-sports-betting","17":"tag-sports-picks","18":"tag-toronto","19":"tag-toronto-blue-jays","20":"tag-torontobluejays"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116269819590983451","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/636200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=636200"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/636200\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/636201"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=636200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=636200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=636200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}