{"id":639055,"date":"2026-03-23T15:07:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T15:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/639055\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T15:07:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T15:07:16","slug":"mlb-win-total-odds-picks-expert-picks-two-overs-two-unders-for-al","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/639055\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB win total odds, picks: Expert picks two Overs, two Unders for AL"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2026 MLB<\/a> season begins Wednesday night, and my favorite early American League futures bet? That would be that the Junior Circuit champion comes from the AL East (-125) over the West (+200) and Central (+475). The East has three legit pennant contenders in the Yankees<\/a>, Blue Jays<\/a> and Red Sox<\/a>, and both the Rays<\/a> and Orioles<\/a> might be sneaky good. <\/p>\n

Bet on Major League Baseball at DraftKings:<\/a><\/p>\n

Because the East is so deep, I’m hesitant to lean Over four of those five clubs’ win totals as they will beat up on each other 13 times this season. Toronto won the East last year in large part due to a 29-23 mark. New York tied for first but lost the tiebreaker in part thanks to a 27-25 division mark. <\/p>\n

This year’s AL Central has only one true pennant contender in Detroit and the West may only have one as well in Seattle, as I expect Houston to continue to fall back after seeing its eight-season playoff run end in 2025. The Tigers<\/a> and Astros<\/a> are two of my four AL win total picks for the coming season, with two Over and two Under leans overall. I shopped around for the best numbers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bet on MLB futures and more at FanDuel:<\/a><\/p>\n

Detroit Tigers Over 85.5 wins (-115)<\/p>\n

There’s no doubt some of my confidence in this pick comes from Detroit playing 52 games inside the weakest division in baseball, the AL Central. The Twins<\/a> and White Sox<\/a> are rebuilding. The Guardians<\/a> are defending Central champs but didn’t add a single notable bat in the offseason despite hitting .226 and scoring the fewest runs in the AL last season, and obviously All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase<\/a> won’t be available. The Tigers have the best lefty pitcher in the majors in two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal<\/a> and might be favored in all 30 or so of his starts. The team now has a true No. 2 behind Skubal in Framber Valdez<\/a>. And ownership is all-in this season for a World Series because Skubal is likely to leave in free agency next winter, so you have to imagine taking on money in trades will be OK’d. FanGraphs has Detroit at 86 wins and the SportsLine Projection Model has it at 87. I think 90 is doable — that is priced +164.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Rays Over 75.5 wins (-105)<\/p>\n

The various sportsbooks always underestimate the Rays. Yes, the penny-pinching franchise did trade away a lot of good players this offseason for salary reasons, but there is no smarter front office in the sport. The rotation could be really good if Shane McClanahan<\/a> can stay healthy. The team actually did spend a bit in free agency for once and will return to its (awful) home of Tropicana Field after spending all last season playing home games at the Yankees’ spring complex in Tampa due to hurricane damage at the Trop. FanGraphs has Tampa Bay at 81 wins and the SportsLine Model has it at 77.<\/p>\n

Place your MLB wagers at bet365:<\/a><\/p>\n

New York Yankees Under 90.5 wins (-110)<\/p>\n

Just like the books undervalue the Rays every year, they overvalue the Yankees simply because of the uniform. New York’s Aaron Boone is among the betting favorites to be the first manager fired \u2013 a futures prop I intend to write about this week \u2013 even though his club has won 94 games and reached the playoffs the past two seasons. But it hasn’t come close to a World Series title under Boone — even when the Yankees made the Series in 2024, they were stuck in neutral — and that’s all that matters. I’m not rooting for an Aaron Judge<\/a> injury, but that Yankees offense is so dependent on the three-time AL MVP that if Judge misses even a month, this win total is landing Under. New York was 4-6 without Judge in 2025 and 25-31 in 2023, the last time he missed significant time. The Yankees play in the tough AL East. Starting pitchers Carlos Rodon<\/a> and Gerrit Cole<\/a> are coming off major injuries. FanGraphs has 87 wins and the SportsLine model as 94. <\/p>\n

Houston Astros Under 86.5 wins (-115)<\/p>\n

The dynasty is officially over in Houston after slipping to 87 wins last year and missing the postseason for the first time since 2016, which is the last time the team had won fewer than 87 games (not counting the COVID year). The Houston lineup might be OK, but the rotation looks like a massive question mark with ace Framber Valdez leaving in free agency for Detroit, and Ronel Blanco<\/a>, Brandon Walter<\/a> and Hayden Wesneski<\/a> all out for most or all season after undergoing Tommy John surgeries. All-Star and often-unhittable closer Josh Hader<\/a> has a worrisome biceps injury that will delay his start to the year. FanGraphs has Houston at wins and the SportsLine model has 87.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2026 MLB season begins Wednesday night, and my favorite early American League futures bet? That would be…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":639056,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2389],"tags":[106,42,81729,47,5,684,48,13576,2004,49,51,53,406,79,2281,1432,139,54,3211,1109,60,4,722,50526,33842,7234,81728,74375,62,81730,766,5720,68,382,74380,70,81727],"class_list":{"0":"post-639055","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-houston-astros","8":"tag-aaron-judge","9":"tag-astros","10":"tag-astros-win-total","11":"tag-baltimore-orioles","12":"tag-baseball","13":"tag-betting","14":"tag-boston-red-sox","15":"tag-brandon-walter","16":"tag-carlos-rodon","17":"tag-chicago-white-sox","18":"tag-cleveland-guardians","19":"tag-detroit-tigers","20":"tag-emmanuel-clase","21":"tag-framber-valdez","22":"tag-gerrit-cole","23":"tag-hayden-wesneski","24":"tag-houston","25":"tag-houston-astros","26":"tag-houstonastros","27":"tag-josh-hader","28":"tag-minnesota-twins","29":"tag-mlb","30":"tag-mlb-betting","31":"tag-mlb-futures","32":"tag-mlb-futures-picks","33":"tag-mlb-odds","34":"tag-mlb-win-total-picks","35":"tag-mlb-win-totals","36":"tag-new-york-yankees","37":"tag-rays-win-total","38":"tag-ronel-blanco","39":"tag-shane-mcclanahan","40":"tag-tampa-bay-rays","41":"tag-tarik-skubal","42":"tag-tigers-win-total","43":"tag-toronto-blue-jays","44":"tag-yankees-win-total"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/639055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=639055"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/639055\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/639056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=639055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=639055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=639055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}