{"id":641027,"date":"2026-03-24T17:18:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T17:18:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/641027\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T17:18:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T17:18:20","slug":"mlb-best-bets-expert-picks-for-2026-player-props-including-pitcher-wins-home-runs-stolen-bases-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/641027\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB best bets: Expert picks for 2026 player props, including pitcher wins, home runs, stolen bases and more"},"content":{"rendered":"

With the 2026 MLB<\/a> season looming, gamblers who love to stock up on preseason futures props only have a little bit of time left. Plus, for those who don’t gamble, it’s still fun to think about who the league leaders might be in a few different statistical categories. Let’s take a look.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Home runs<\/p>\n

Top four<\/p>\n

From these, I’m eliminating Raleigh right off the bat. He’s a great offensive player, but the rigors of catching plus playing in a pitcher paradise mean we’re very unlikely to see anything close to a repeat of last year’s outlier. None of the top three would surprise me as the home run leader for 2026, but I’ll go with Schwarber at those odds.<\/p>\n

Longshot play: Matt Olson<\/a> led the majors with 54 homers in 2023. He’s only hit 29 each of the last two years, which is why we can get him at +3000 here. Maybe he gets in a huge groove again? He’s as durable as anyone, having played in 162 games for four straight years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longer shot play:\u00a0Jac Caglianone<\/a> is at +7500. The Royals<\/a> moved in the fences at Kauffman Stadium and Caglianone has nearly as much raw power as anyone in the game. He struggled in his rookie season, but players often make adjustments once they’ve had a go-round through the league. He hit well this spring between spring training and the WBC with Italy. Remember, he hit 35 homers in 66 games with Florida as a college junior and had 20 home runs in 66 minor-league games last season.<\/p>\n

Strikeouts<\/p>\n

Top four<\/p>\n

Crochet led last year with 255 in 205 \u2153 innings. I’ve got him leading again, even approaching 300 strikeouts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longshot play:\u00a0I don’t think Cole Ragans<\/a> at +1700 qualifies for a longshot here, but he’s my pick if I can’t take Crochet. His strikeout rate throughout his career has been amazing and all that’s missing is reliable health. How about Logan Gilbert<\/a> at +4500? He struck out 220 in 2024 and raised his rate last season with 173 in 131 innings. With a full 33 starts, he could work up to around 250 strikeouts and give himself a good shot here.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longer shot play:\u00a0I’ll go with Jes\u00fas Luzardo at +6000. He struck out 216 last season in 183 \u2154 innings. It was a career high in innings, but only by five. Perhaps he’s ready to top 200 and will gain some consistency. There’s a decent shot here and these odds are enticing.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Stolen bases<\/p>\n

Top four<\/p>\n

I’m all over Elly here. Remember, he played most of last season with a partial tear in his left quad. He stole 67 bases in 2024 and I’m expecting him to improve his on-base chops at some point, giving him more chances.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longshot play:\u00a0Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr. led the majors with 73 steals last time he had a first full season post-ACL surgery and he’s at +1500 here. This time around, it’s another first full season since ACL surgery. Is it really that simple? Of course not. He’s older and now both ACLs are reconstructed, but we know he has it in him. Pete Crow-Armstrong<\/a> at +1800 is also a decent play in this category.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longer shot play:\u00a0I’ll zero in on Maikel Garcia<\/a>. He stole 37 in 2024. That number dipped to 23 last season, but he upped his OBP to .351 and sitting atop the Royals order, there’s a decent chance he ramps up the running now in front of the thunder in that lineup.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Runs batted in\u00a0<\/p>\n

Top four<\/p>\n

The MLB leader was Schwarber with 132 last season. Alonso was second with 126, though he’s changed teams and leagues. Ohtani hits leadoff. Judge would be a great play, but I find Caminero calling my name on this one. We’ll ride with him.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longshot play:\u00a0Schwarber is +2500. Hard to pass that up.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longer shot play:\u00a0Vinnie Pasquantino<\/a> is +3500 and he finished sixth in RBI last season. He’ll be in a prime RBI spot for what I expect to be a pretty potent Royals offense with some burners in front of him in Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Doubles<\/p>\n

Top four<\/p>\n

Witt led last year with 47. A few of those would’ve been homers with the new Kauffman Stadium dimensions, but he’ll still be a doubles machine. Of this group, though, I like Duran’s odds. He was tied for fourth last season and it was a down year from his 2024.<\/p>\n

Longshot play:\u00a0Future Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman is going to continue to lose home run power as he ages. He’ll turn 37 in September. He’s also going to continue to sting the ball, including into the gaps and down the lines. He’s led the majors in doubles three times, most recently 2023 with a ridiculous 59. He’s +3000. Yes please.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longer shot play:\u00a0Jeremy Pe\u00f1a had 30 doubles last season in only 125 games and his home stadium, Daikin Park in Houston, is ripe with areas to find extra bases in the field of play. He’s at +5000. That’ll work.<\/p>\n

Wins<\/p>\n

Top four<\/p>\n

Tarik Skubal +700Garrett Crochet +1000Max Fried<\/a> +1200Cristopher S\u00e1nchez and Paul Skenes +1300<\/p>\n

Skubal feels like the play here as an Opening Day starter in a contract year with a team expected to win its division. And if the Tigers<\/a> somehow fall out of the race, they’ll trade him to a contender. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Longshot play:\u00a0Logan Webb<\/a> at +1600 is pretty attractive because he carries a huge workload and never gets hurt. He’ll be pitching for a team that is at least in the range of .500 and if they end up better than that, he’s got a real shot here. If these odds aren’t enough of a longshot for you, how about Ragans at +3000? I love the Royals this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longer shot play:\u00a0I guess I’m a huge Logan Gilbert guy this season because I’m going back to the well. He’s +3500. I’m expecting the Mariners<\/a> to win more than 90 games and Gilbert to make 33 starts. Run support at home might be an issue, but there’s a realistic possibility he approaches 20 wins.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

Saves<\/p>\n

Top four<\/p>\n

D\u00edaz tied for 10th last year, but that was with the Mets<\/a>. Now he’s with the mighty Dodgers<\/a>. My only hold up is that you could see the organization taking it easy with him due to the expectation that he’ll have a heavy October workload. I don’t like him as the leader. I do think the Padres<\/a> ride Miller hard in the ninth so he’s the pick. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Longshot play:\u00a0Andr\u00e9s Mu\u00f1oz is +1400 while Aroldis Chapman<\/a> and Devin Williams<\/a> are +1500. Any of this trio could easily lead in saves.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Longer shot play:\u00a0We just saw Cubs<\/a> closer Daniel Palencia<\/a> close down the WBC in the semifinals and finals on back-to-back days. He got acclimated to the role last season and now fully has a grasp on the closer mentality while not having real competition for saves at this point. The Cubs should win 90+ games. Palencia is +2500.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With the 2026 MLB season looming, gamblers who love to stock up on preseason futures props only have…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":641028,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5,4,163,222,18053],"class_list":["post-641027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-baseball","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-best-bets","tag-mlb-bets","tag-mlb-prop-bets"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116285296172491905","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=641027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/641028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=641027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=641027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=641027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}