{"id":644565,"date":"2026-03-26T13:30:56","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T13:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/644565\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T13:30:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T13:30:56","slug":"national-league-east-preview-mets-face-challenges-from-familiar-foes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/644565\/","title":{"rendered":"National League East Preview: Mets face challenges from familiar foes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last year\u2019s National League East race ended with the Phillies (96-66) winning their second consecutive division crown, while the Mets (83-79) and Braves (76-86) both underperformed expectations and missed the playoffs entirely. The Marlins (79-83), meanwhile, came close to .500 as they showed promise and play a key role in ending the Mets\u2019 postseason dreams on the final day of the regular season, and the Nationals (66-96) showcased their potential with their young, up-and-coming talent, despite finishing in the cellar.<\/p>\n

Heading into Opening Day, the NL East race promises to be one of the most exciting ones to watch around the league. The Mets are projected to bounce back and contend for their first division title since 2015, while the Braves are expected to rebound and the Phillies once again have a roster built for a run at the postseason. So let\u2019s review where things stand at the start of the 2026 season, and what Mets fans might expect from the team\u2019s division rivals.<\/p>\n

The Phillies are coming off back-to-back NL East crowds and four consecutive playoff appearances, though they have failed to make it beyond the Division series in either of the previous two seasons after going to the World Series in 2022 and reaching the NLCS in 2023.<\/p>\n

In many ways, the Phillies are \u201crunning it back\u201d, as they enter 2026 with a very similar roster to the one they showcased last year. Their key offseason moves were re-signing Kyle Schwarber to a 5-year, $150 deal\u2014Mets fans will recall that the club was also reportedly in on the Schwarber sweepstakes\u2014and catcher J.T. Realmuto to a three-year deal. The Phillies also, very recently, extended two cornerstones of their rotation in left-handers Cristopher S\u00e1nchez and Jes\u00fas Luzardo, which should offer them rotation stability for years to come. In terms of new faces, the club added slugging outfielder Adolis Garcia and reliever Mitch Keller. On the departure side, Philadelphia parted ways with Nick Castellanos, Harrison Bader, and Matt Strahm. The team will start the year without ace Zack Wheeler as he recovers from thoracic outlet surgery, but after a \u201csuccessful spring,\u201d he is set to begin a rehab assignment and could be back in April.<\/p>\n

Both ZiPS and PECOTA have the Phillies taking a step back in 2026 and relinquishing their NL East crown, and that\u2019s to be expected for a team that\u2019s a year older and not necessarily better. Fangraphs<\/a> projects the Phillies to win 87 games, which is actually down from their projection<\/a> of 91 wins and an NL East crown from late January. This update lands them squarely in third place in the NL East but would secure them the second Wild Card in the National League. Baseball Prospectus<\/a> is a little more bullish, projecting them to finish at 84.9 wins in their up-to-date model on March 25. The Phillies will once again go as far as Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber can carry them, as their veteran core remains strong but, again, one year older. Their rotation remains a strength, even as they wait for Wheeler\u2019s return, and they have the benefit of a full season with closer Jhoan Duran, whom they acquired ahead of last year\u2019s trade deadline.<\/p>\n

The Mets\u2019 collapse stole the headlines around the league and took a lot of heat off the Braves, who unexpectedly fell flat on their faces and finished in fourth place after seven straight postseason appearances. The Braves, who won six straight division crowns from 2018-2023, fell below the .500 mark for the first time since 2017.<\/p>\n

Atlanta enters the year with a new skipper at the helm, as Walt Weiss is set to succeed Brian Snitker, who held the position for ten years but chose to step down into an advisory role. Weiss previously served as Snitker\u2019s bench coach. On the field, the team added reliever Jos\u00e9 Suarez and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski. They also claimed Osvaldo Bido from the Yankees, inked Rowdy Tellez on a minor league deal, and brought in old friend Dom Smith, who is in position to potentially make the roster out of spring. Atlanta will be managing some injuries heading into this year, specifically to Spencer Strider, who begins the year on the injured list with a left oblique strain. Joey Wentz (torn ACL) and Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow inflammation) both begin the year on the 60-day IL.<\/p>\n

Their roster is still loaded with talent, and the project models seem to agree that they will get back on the horse in 2026. Both ZiPS and PECOTA have them narrowly missing a division crown, falling just behind the Mets but handily securing the top Wild Card spot in the NL. Fangraphs<\/a> sees them winning 88 games (matching the Mets) but falling short in the end. Baseball Prospectus<\/a>, meanwhile, has them at 88.7 wins, just shy of the Mets\u2019 simulated projection of 89.4.<\/p>\n

Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr. remains their key player, and a healthy and elite season from their star outfielder could make all the difference (emphasis on \u2018healthy\u2019). There\u2019s also Matt Olson, who played 162 games for the fourth straight season and finished with a 136 wRC+ and a 4.7 fWAR. Atlanta also desperately need a bounce back year from Austin Riley, who struggled last season and has not come close to his All-Star self from 2022 and 2023. The biggest bright spot for Atlanta last year was catcher Drake Baldwin, who earned Rookie of the Year honors after a stellar debut season, and he will now be thrust into a more prominent role going forward.<\/p>\n

The Marlins surprised some folks last year when they came close to .500 and hung around the NL Wild Card picture until the late stages of the season\u2014some of this is certainly due to the subpar competition, no doubt. They also flirted with trading ace Sandy Alc\u00e1ntara, who missed all of 2024 and struggled to regain his form in 2025 until well after the All-Star break. You can be sure that the team will again explore a trade this year, if they are not realistically in a playoff spot\u2014Alc\u00e1ntara\u2019s contract expires at the end of the 2026 season.<\/p>\n

The Marlins did what they do best, which is trade their talented players for prospect capital. They made two headline moves in this vein: trading right-hander Edward Cabrera to the Cubs in a package centered around outfielder Owen Caissie, and trading left-hander Ryan Weathers to the Yankees for four prospects. It\u2019s worth noting that Cabrera is under team control through 2028, and Weathers through 2029, which brought in a bigger return. To fortify their roster, the club signed utility player Christopher Morel and acquired Esteury Ruiz from the Dodgers. They also acquired right-hander Bradley Blalock from the Rockies and left-hander Kade Bragg from the Twins.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, their season last year has done little to sway perception of their team or inspire much from the projection models. They are, pretty much across the board, viewed as the fourth team in this division, as ZiPS<\/a> sees them finishing 75-87 and PECOTA<\/a> has them basically right around that with a sim W total of 74.7. In both scenarios, they fall well short of the third Wild Card spot, failing to earn a postseason spot for the third straight yea after their Wild Card appearance in 2023. They still have some bright young players to watch, including Xavier Edwards and 2025 All-Star Kyle Stowers. At the very least, Mets fans should take comfort in the fact that New York does not play Miami during the final week of the season\u2014their final games against the pesky Marlins are September 7-9 at loanDepot Park.<\/p>\n

Despite some promising young talent, the Nationals still came close to 100 losses and seem to be nowhere close to contention in the division. They confirmed those thoughts by trading one of their best veterans, pitcher MacKenzie Gore, to the Rangers for a package of five minor leaguers. On the major league side, they made some minor moves, adding Zack Littell, Foster Griffin, and Miles Mikolas, all on relatively affordable one-year deals. The rest of their roster was filled in by waiver claims.<\/p>\n

The Nationals are projected to finish right near the bottom of the league yet again. ZiPS<\/a> sees them finishing the year 69-93, a three-game improvement from their 2025 results. This would give them more wins than just the Colorado Rockies, and would tie them with the projected win total of the Chicago White Sox. PECOTA<\/a>, meanwhile, is a bit more pessimistic, simulating a total of 67.1 wins for Washington, ahead of just the Rockies (59.4) and Angels (65.5) in their model. This year will be all about the growth of rising stars James Wood and CJ Abrams, and their continued growth will be the main point of concern for Washington in what is ultimately another rebuilding year.<\/p>\n

Projections and Predictions<\/p>\n

The Mets have been a popular pick to win the 2026 NL East title, and not just from ZiPS and PECOTA (see standings below) but also from several seasoned baseball journalists at MLB<\/a>, ESPN<\/a>, SNY<\/a>, Newsday<\/a>, the NY Post<\/a> and more. However, as we have learned far too many times, projections and predictions are a far way off from reality. With that said, the Mets find themselves in a good position and should be able to size up well against the Phillies and Braves as they look to capture their first division crown in over a decade.<\/p>\n

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