The season is finally almost here! Opening Day is tomorrow for the Cardinals at 3:15pm CST. It will be Drew Rasmussen taking the mound for the Rays in St Louis, and Matthew Liberatore will be your Opening Day starting pitcher for the Cardinals. The Cardinals will have their work cut out for them because Rasmussen is a legit ace pitcher, going by his rate stats, while Liberatore\u2019s portfolio of stats isn\u2019t nearly as exciting. However, Liberatore isn\u2019t walking anyone lately, and the Rays lineup shouldn\u2019t be that scary for him. Could\/should be a really good opener.<\/p>\n
Who showed up to Spring Training this year ready to demolish some baseballs? Josh Baez and Nelson Velazquez! Neither of whom made the team out of spring training. I am willing to believe that neither were going to make the team before spring training even started, but they both gave us a glimpse of some powerful reinforcements down on the farm. Somehow Velazquez hardly struck out at all and took some walks, showing some possible veteran poise. Baez showed monster power, and that\u2019s not potential, that\u2019s real in game home run power. Sure he\u2019s going to strike out, but damn.<\/p>\n
Speaking of monster power, Tai Peete struck out over half the time but had an ISO of .455. Alec Burleson had a high batting average and an OBP of .458! Hoping he can be a key part of this offense, because basically, he has to. Nolan Gorman and Nathan Church are showing a lot of promise with wRC+ around 135-140 this spring! That\u2019s a lot better than not bad. Spring training sample size caveat reminder! Even less meaningful were the positive offensive performances of Thomas Saggese and Jimmy Crooks III, who outhit JJ Wetherholt, the last player I\u2019ll mention as a positive from Spring Training. Sure JJ wasn\u2019t a lot above an average hitter, but it was better than seeing him flounder and possibly not make the team. Although, I\u2019m pretty sure he would\u2019ve anyway.<\/p>\n
Which players weren\u2019t ready for spring training or weren\u2019t really trying to impress, maybe working on some things batting-wise? Yohel Pozo, Ramon Urias, and Victor Scott II will surely be below average hitters. Ivan Herrera\u2019s mystery swollen knee held him back from making much progress, at least in spring training. He has certainly set back the schedule regarding catching, but they already had Pozo and Pages in place, so it\u2019s tough to know what the real plan was there. Regardless, he wasn\u2019t quite ready for spring training. Buddies Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker could barely hit at all all spring long. The hitting performances of Jose Fermin and Cesar Prieto did nothing whatsoever to instill any confidence in their offense. But the worst hitter of all this spring was Pedro Pages! Showing a -10 wRC+. How does one even do that? A batting average worse than a pitcher\u2019s with absolutely zero power. I will yawn at every Pedro Pages at bat until August!<\/p>\n
Pitching-wise, only 6 pitchers got past the 10 IP mark. Liberatore and Leahy dominated the xFIP rates, Liberatore and Dustin May looked really good by FIP, and May, Liberatore, McGreevy, and Pallante all had good springs by ERA. You can tell why Oliver Marmol was fond of his pitching staff. Quinn Mathews also got a good look in spring, but his Fielding Independent Pitching stats weren\u2019t too impressive in 11 IP. What was impressive was his K\/9. Batters weren\u2019t hitting him well, he was just walking too many people.<\/p>\n
Beyond that, there isn\u2019t much to say other than the bullpen looks to be at least mediocre. Pushard didn\u2019t have a good spring but made the cut. Roycroft did have a good spring and will be a part of the bullpen, at least to start the season. Blewett, Svanson, Bruihl, and Romero seem like they will be just fine. One standout was George Soriano, I think he\u2019ll be an important piece to the bullpen puzzle this year. And don\u2019t forget Ryne Stanek! Maybe they\u2019ll trade Soriano, Stanek, Romero, and Pushard, maybe Roycroft at the deadline. I don\u2019t know. Gotta make way for Luis Gastelum etc, eventually.<\/p>\n
So we are picked as a last place team this year, but how could they avoid the basement? The Reds are already helping by losing Hunter Greene for a while. The Pirates are waiting on Konor Griffin. The Brewers may finally come back down to earth. The Cubs would need to be devastated by some big injuries to drop off. So it\u2019s probably up to the Cardinals to overperform their projections.<\/p>\n
Masyn Winn might just be a 3 WAR player this year, if he doesn\u2019t hit much. But maybe he finally meets his potential in 2026. It\u2019s ok to ignore spring training. If Ivan Herrera gets more playing time and he really is a 130-140 wRC+ hitter, he will have no problem beating every projection system that has calculated his forward potential. JJ Wetherholt is expected to top out at 2.5 WAR or so, but what if he just goes off instead? Will this be a season where ROY is determined by WAR?<\/p>\n
If Alec Burleson continues his trend of being a better hitter every season, he will have no problem outdoing his WAR projections, which hover around 1.5 to 2 WAR. Then you have spring training Nolan Gorman who looks like a candidate for comeback player of the year award.<\/p>\n
I might be crazy but I think the starting rotation is better than the projected totals. It doesn\u2019t take much to imagine them as better than a bunch of 1.5 WAR guys. My picks to totally beat that are Liberatore and May. Liberatore because I think he\u2019s one of those slowly improving players each year, and May because I think he will finally be healthy a full season and reach his true potential. Will I be wrong about that? Maybe so! But I\u2019m not going to just expect him to get hurt again. Track record be damned.<\/p>\n
Here are my hotter than hot takes! List your\u2019s in the comments! Nolan Gorman MVP and Dustin May Cy Young Award Winner. Cardinals make the playoffs despite Winn, VSii, Walker, and Pages not hitting. The pitching ends up being a strength, and Gorman, Herrera, and Burleson fuel a surprising offense. Wetherholt ends up being an above average hitter but a more notable defensive second baseman, teaming up with Winn to prevent almost anything from making it through the middle infield. Gorman and Burleson end up being average, good enough at the corners. The blend of Church and Scott II make the outfield defense air tight. The Cardinals set some records with run prevention. Herrera ends up being the catcher by the end of the season and Nelson Velazquez the DH. Baez ends up being at AAA all season because of Jordan Walker. But it ends up being good for him, development-wise.<\/p>\n
Thomas Saggese, Jimmy Crooks III, and half the bullpen get traded away, but the second half ends up being spectacular for the Cardinals. Innings are managed to allow the better starting pitchers to get more time on the mound during the last two months of the season. Walker doesn\u2019t hit all season but goes red hot in the playoffs, making the management and owners look like geniuses. Rally rabbit hops all over the field.<\/p>\n
So of course my hot take involves the hopium, give me your most negative takes. Or your most over the top positive predictions. It will be tough to beat some of the 100 loss hot takes, though. How about an earthquake splits Busch Stadium III asunder! And some get their wish for the Cardinals to move out of St Louis. HOT HOT HOT! Give me those hot takes. Imagine, if you will, a world even more insane than this one.<\/p>\n
Bonus! a big writing project is underway: writing about each year of my life. I\u2019m only up to 1983 so I\u2019ve a ways to go on this.<\/p>\n
The first commercial cell phone call was made in Chicago on October 13, 1978, and it was the beginning of the internet as we know it that year too!<\/p>\n
Return of the Jedi was the big movie that year, and I got to see it in the theaters multiple times just after its release. Episodes 4-6 is one of the best trilogies ever made. It was mostly downhill after that, but I cherish my early Star Wars memories and Christmas was always full of toys back then. Especially Star Wars toys!<\/p>\n
My less obvious 1983 must see movie picks:<\/p>\n
Videodrome by David CronenbergV on NBC (a reptilian sci-fi drama series that was a big part of the early 80s!)Fire and Ice fantasy animated movie directed by Ralph BakshiStrange Brew (Canadian beer comedy!)<\/p>\n
Going to be focusing mostly on music this week! Turns out 1983 is another one of those ridiculously stacked years\u2026 lots and lots of punk rock coming to fruition and plenty of other cultural movements happening!<\/p>\n
Tom Waits – \u2018Swordfishtrombones\u2019<\/a> I want people to hear this who haven\u2019t heard it, and if you have, you know it is one of Tom Waits\u2019 best albums! Absolutely fantastic listen. It\u2019s with this album Tom Waits gets really good and never looks back. His songwriting was always top notch, but Waits adds a signature sound to his already masterful equation. Standout track: \u201c16 Shells from a Thirty-Ought Six\u201d<\/a>Swans – \u2018Filth\u2019<\/a> I heard this later on in my musical life experience, and it was still utterly mindblowing decades later! I cannot imagine what it must\u2019ve sounded like upon its release in 1983. Holy Ffffff. Some of the nastiest, machine-like playing by actual humans you\u2019ll ever hear. Far darker and heavier than just about anything you could hear from a rock or punk band, Swans create a whole new thing here. Every track stands out and just smashes you down, grinds you up in some kind of clanking, strange machine.Minutemen – \u2018What Makes A Man Start Fires\u2019<\/a> this is my big revelation this week, I either haven\u2019t heard this particular Minutemen album, or it\u2019s been so long I forgot how good it actually is. The Minutemen pave a lot of new ground and meld several styles into their own thing. Mike Watt\u2019s bass playing on this is nothing less than phenomenal. What Makes A Man Start Fires\u2019 inherently ultra high, positive energy is rarely matched by anyone. Except maybe by Jerrys Kids which I\u2019ll list later\u2026Pylon – \u2018Chomp\u2019<\/a> another big 1983 find! This album is catchy as hell, has some depth to it, and the album cover cracks me up every time! Lots of variety of 80s and punk rock songs in a standard guitar bass drums rock format. A total 80s classic! Must listen! A lost gem. One of the big reasons I\u2019m enjoying doing this so much is all the obscure bands not even I have heard of. Another album that I wonder what people thought of when it came out. They were supposedly influential on early R.E.M. The vocals of Vanessa Briscoe Hay really make the band for me, as does the up-front, in-your-face bass playing, and the creative guitarist.Talking Heads – \u2018Speaking In Tongues\u2019<\/a> Probably my favorite Talking Heads album, and that\u2019s saying a lot! They\u2019re making my best of the year lists A LOT. What makes this one my favorite is the production is better than the others before it, and there is an even more expansive variety of styles on display by the band, all the while serving each song well. They also sound more mature and experienced here.Metallica – \u2018Kill Em All\u2019<\/a> some albums will just never get old, and that\u2019s true for Metallica\u2019s debut. Sure Metallica had some influences, but the way they fused them together and the energy they put into it was next level, especially for the time. It still sounds fresh, which is not easy to do considering it\u2019s from 1983! Metallica were not the heaviest, fastest, or choppiest of the thrash metal bands, but they were one of the first, and what they excelled at was songwriting and high energy, memorable guitar solos. But don\u2019t forget the James Hetfield downpicking guitar riff would propel them through all their most amazing albums.Eskaton – \u2018Fiction\u2019<\/a> the strange genre of Zeuhl meets the oddball goofiness of the 80s! It retains all of its prog rockness and the funk influences, but sounds like they had no problem fitting that into the realm of 80s music. Somehow, they were able to make the change more naturally than other prog-oriented bands.Cocteau Twins – \u2018Head Over Heels\u2019<\/a> another album from the future, music-wise. The production sounds a bit muted, but I bet at the time it was insanely groundbreaking! What they are doing musically is way ahead of their time. One of the signature bands of the 80s, I love it. The way the drum machines and guitars, vocals sound on this album, is the stuff of legends\u2026Bad Brains – \u2018Rock For Light\u2019<\/a> the first Bad Brains album is almost indecipherable production-wise, but Rock For Light shines through production-wise and with a whole new scope of top-tier reggae interlude songs. The punk is still young energy hyper-fast and intense, but with more variety. A good introduction to the world of Bad Brains! This album is another one ahead of its time.Jerrys Kids – \u2018Is This My World?\u2019<\/a> I think I asked the same question as a kid and felt a little depressed. Is this really the world we live in? I grew up in the Cold War era with emergency drills for tornadoes, nuclear war, and even earthquakes. But at least I didn\u2019t have the shooter drills. This is one of the best punk rock albums ever made, and the drummer sounds like he is going to explode the whole time! Another big find in my hunt for good albums from 1983. It might only be 24 minutes, but it gets its message across just as well or better than many 40-minute+ albums. What a shot of adrenaline!Steve Hiett – \u2018Down On The Road By The Beach\u2019<\/a> had never heard this one before, but it didn\u2019t sound like anything else from 1983, or much else after. It has such a chill but warm sound, throughout. Relaxing. Summer daydream vibes.Crass – \u2018Yes Sir, I Will\u2019<\/a> I was in some improv punk bands and had never heard this before, it reminds me of what we were doing which wasn\u2019t easy listening, either! Life is chaos. Advanced listening anarchy.Takeo Moriyami – \u2018East Plants\u2019<\/a> next level jazz genius from Japan! The thunderous but precise drums are from Takeo himself, a drummer and band leader. Masterclass jazz series.Dio – \u2018Holy Diver\u2019<\/a> It makes the list for the songs Holy Diver and Rainbow In The Dark! But the whole album is perfect. Also, I love how prominently the bassist is in the mix, making it a unique standout heavy metal album. The whole album has a stripped down to the bolts sound that works really well for the band.Amebix – \u2018No Sanctuary\u2019<\/a> this band gave birth to the crustpunk genre right here, and heavily influenced the futures of both grindcore and black metal. Another short and to the point listen, clocking in at 27 minutes. The whole damn thing sounds so epic.Misfits – \u2018Earth A.D.\/Wolf\u2019s Blood\u2019<\/a> dingy production but high energy, hyper stylized punk rock! Legends.The Henry Threadgill Sextet – \u2018Just The Facts and Pass The Bucket\u2019<\/a> contemporary 1983 jazz at its finestDisciplina Ki\u010dme – \u2018Svi\u0111a Mi Se Da Ti Ne Bude Prijatno\u2019<\/a> I don\u2019t know much about this but the music is amazing! A truly fun foreign art punk find. Super catchy. Probably should be ranked higher!Mercyful Fate – \u2018Melissa\u2019<\/a> an early metal classic on par with \u2018Kill Em All\u2019 except for the impossibly silly vocals, which only appear half the time at least, on this album. I don\u2019t exactly hate the vocals, but it renders the band to a few songs at a time for me. Maybe slowly I will get more used to those ridiculous satanic vocals, but for now I must admire how early the metal is here, the band kicks ass. Mercyful Fate was one of the tightest instrumentally of any of the early metal bands.Suicidal Tendencies – \u2018self-titled\u2019<\/a> and to round out the top 20 albums of 1978, the legendary debut of the band who brought us the 1980\u2019s punk songs on many a mix tape: \u201cInstitutionalized\u201d<\/a> and \u201cI Saw Your Mommy<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n Honorable Mentions: Madonna<\/a> is a really fun listen and part of my childhood soundtrack, you heard it everywhere along with Hall and Oates and Men At Work. She\u2019s So Unusual<\/a> by Cindy Lauper! Another part of my childhood memories soundtrack. And Jon Hassell \u2018Magic Realism\u2019<\/a>. I forgot to include his album with Brian Eno in my 1980 writeup! Massive overlook on that one. While I do like Magic Realism I do not find it to be one of his top tier albums, so if this one feels a bit like background music, this is one of his more ambient albums. Still love it though.<\/p>\n Cannot believe opening day is finally here tomorrow wooooooo. To help make the time go by faster, time for some hot takes\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The season is finally almost here! Opening Day is tomorrow for the Cardinals at 3:15pm CST. 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