As most of you know, I was lucky enough to be invited to attend Winter Warmup as a reporter. Last year, I used that experience to write several season previews. Due to the late start of the top 20 prospect series (caused by waiting for Brendan Donovan to be traded), my Winter Warmup stories have been pushed to now instead of at the beginning of spring training. Thus technically, these could also be called season previews, but there\u2019s a good chance I write a couple of these after the season has already started. I\u2019ll try to pick stories that are not outdated for the ones during the season.<\/p>\n
Last year, entering the start of the season, the Cardinals\u2019 starting rotation featured a 35-year-old, a 36-year-old, a 32-year-old, and the next man up if anyone got injured was a 33-year-old. Appropriate for the sort of youth movement that the Cardinals are doing, the only two members actually returning are under 30-years-old.<\/p>\n
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It\u2019s the kind of thing that allows Matthew Liberatore to be the Opening Day starter, who has had one solid season in the rotation under his belt. Now, he had been with the MLB club for parts of four seasons, by far longer than any other starter, on par with only a few hitters, and the only player who has been with the club longer was Lars Nootbaar. So it\u2019s very deserved.<\/p>\n
Also call me optimistic, but Liberatore may look like an actual Opening Day quality starter at the end of the season. He certainly showed flashes of it last year. Even though he had thrown 149 innings before (2022 between AAA and the majors), he only threw 86 in 2024. And when that jump began to affect Liberatore in the middle of the season, it was a new experience for him.<\/p>\n
\u201cHaving been something that I\u2019ve never been through before, there was a lot of trial and error,\u201d Liberatore said. \u201cI didn\u2019t know what would work and what wouldn\u2019t work.\u00a0 I kind of had to do things and test it and see if it would work and go back and either re-try it or do something different.\u201d<\/p>\n
He learned he could still compete without his best stuff. That he could work with whatever he had that given day and have success.<\/p>\n
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\u201cHitters smell blood in the water if you don\u2019t believe in yourself and what you\u2019re doing and your ability to get outs at this level,\u201d Liberatore said.\u00a0 \u201cPlenty of guys go through what I\u2019ve gone through on some level and still find a way to have success.\u201d<\/p>\n
It kind of sounds like he would self-diagnose that as one of his problems in his first couple seasons, when he pitched like he was afraid of hitters. He also knows now that he can get it back if he has to battle through a few starts.<\/p>\n
\u201cI kind of wish that we had an extra month there at the end,\u201c Liberatore said.\u00a0 \u201dI felt like I started to pick things back up and find my delivery again.\u00a0 The ball started to come out of my hand much better again so I felt like if we had to play another month of baseball, I probably would have hit my stride again during that month.\u00a0 I think that\u2019s a great place to be.\u00a0 Now moving into the season, looking to make those adjustments to be a little more stable during the middle half.\u201d<\/p>\n
While he said he\u2019s working on everything all of the time, he said he added a few pounds over the offseason to help durability and one of his statistical hopes is to throw 170-180 innings. But he doesn\u2019t really set goals like others do. Or rather, he doesn\u2019t have stats in mind when he\u2019s setting goals.<\/p>\n
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\u201cI do what\u2019s called an execution journal after my outings, where I go in and I judge the quality of each pitch based off of what my intentions are of that pitch before I threw it,\u201d Liberatore said. \u201cFor me, if I can execute at a 70% clip or better every outing, I think we look up at the end of the season and see the numbers are right where we want them to be.\u201d<\/p>\n
Durability is not something only Liberatore is worried about. Dustin May signed with the Cardinals in part because they didn\u2019t really have injuries last year and in general, their rotation hasn\u2019t been hit like most teams in recent years. The Cardinals made it a selling point in their pitch to May. One of the strategies might frustrate fans at points.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe used a couple weeks in April to continue that build-up, which I think was smart,\u201d manager Oliver Marmol said. \u201dAt times frustrating if you\u2019re on the other side of it from a fan, because why is Sonny coming out after 83 pitches.\u00a0 We try to be really smart about that build-up and the most injuries are right in that window, so we want to be smart about how we build into that window.\u00a0 And even the rest of April, just using that sixth man to give that guy an extra day.\u00a0 We\u2019ll use kind of the same kind of process to give ourselves the best shot and go from there.\u201d<\/p>\n
Marmol also said while you can do everything right, what happened last season required a degree of luck. Nonetheless, the pitch worked. And while May was technically healthy last spring training, he had diminished stuff. So one could argue this is his first healthy spring training since 2023. He only made 9 starts that year of course, and he spent most of 2022 injured until the end of the season.<\/p>\n
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\u201cIt\u2019s been a grind over the last five years, I\u2019m not going to lie,\u201d May said. \u201cBut I\u2019m very excited to go into spring training fully healthy, fully ready to go, being fully built up, having a full healthy offseason has been great for sure.\u201d<\/p>\n
For his part, although he\u2019s been injured for most of his MLB career, he has over six years of MLB experience and is 28-years-old. That\u2019s practically ancient on this team. He knew he would be an older guy when signing, but didn\u2019t know he would be THE old guy.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s gonna be fun to be able to use my experiences and try to talk with some of the young guys,\u201d May said. \u201cI mean I feel like I\u2019m a young guy still, but I\u2019m not on this team.\u00a0 I think it\u2019ll be fun to be able to use some of my experiences and explain some of the nuances of the game and the ins and outs, the dos and don\u2019ts.\u201d<\/p>\n
Actually, Kyle Leahy is slightly older, but Leahy also just got here. Liberatore and Leahy had sat down an hour and a half at dinner discussing pitch grips and what they had been working on.<\/p>\n
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\u201cHe\u2019s probably the most similarly minded pitcher to myself I think that we have, so that makes it really fun for us to connect and bounce ideas off each other and be a sounding board for one another,\u201d Liberatore said.<\/p>\n
While we haven\u2019t see Leahy pitch yet (he\u2019s throwing tonight), he certainly has the mix of pitches to start, having many different options to confuse hitters. Fangraphs has him throwing five different pitches (slider, fastball, curve, change, and sinker) and none more than 35% of the time. In theory, there\u2019s no reason it can\u2019t work.<\/p>\n
But also in theory, there\u2019s no reason Andre Pallante the starter can\u2019t work either. He doesn\u2019t strike hitters out much, but he does get groundballs 60% of the time and has an average-ish walk rate. Yes, he doesn\u2019t especially walk hitters believe it or not (9.1% career rate is not that high and it was 8.7% last season). But it might be noticeable because he doesn\u2019t have the greatest command, which is reflective of Pallante\u2019s intentions this season.<\/p>\n
\u201cEliminating the home runs and striking guys out more, the basics of pitching,\u201d Pallante.\u00a0 \u201cLetting guys get back into at-bats when I have them 0-2, 1-2 and throwing really uncompetitive waste pitches and when I\u2019m behind in the count, how do I limit that damage and that\u2019s where we talk about the unpredictability.\u201d<\/p>\n
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By unpredictability, Pallante is referring essentially to what I said above about Leahy, confusing hitters. If you throw a pitch that hitters won\u2019t see coming, you\u2019re probably going to get a good result. The location of a Pallante pitch might be unpredictable, the pitch itself probably isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s hard to beat them by pure stuff when they can see your stuff so much and they get used to before the game starts, so really you have to play more of the \u2018I\u2019ve got different ways of getting you out,\u201d Pallante said.<\/p>\n
In that respect, his number one goal is to throw strikes that aren\u2019t his fastball. You can get pretty predictable if you only throw fastballs in the strike zone. But he also worked on other pitches during spring training, which was another goal of his.<\/p>\n
\u201cGoal #2 was development of an off-speed pitch, whether be a change or splitter,\u201d Pallante said.\u00a0 \u201cI\u2019ve been working on the \u2018social media\u2019 kick change up and that\u2019s been coming along really well.\u00a0 Last thing I\u2019ve been working on is a little bit of a carry fastball.\u201d<\/p>\n
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He\u2019s been trying to throw a changeup since college and has always had consistency issues, so I wouldn\u2019t be that optimistic about that one, but you may be wondering why he is trying to throw another fastball. It would work differently than his other fastball.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat I naturally do is I don\u2019t carry a fastball, I kind of cut it,\u201d Pallante said.\u00a0 \u201cReally the goal is finding a grip or mental cue on how to throw so I can stay behind it better and develop a better 4-seam spin.\u201d<\/p>\n
We should see soon enough if he has a different pitch mix, because even if it\u2019s not a big difference, it could matter a lot. Just the possibility that his fastball might carry instead of cut affects things.<\/p>\n
A pitcher who has no issues with unpredictability and many different options to confuse hitters is Michael McGreevy.<\/p>\n
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\u201cI got so many pitches right now that it seems like the pitch com is going to run out of buttons,\u201d McGreevy said.<\/p>\n
Obviously, in a weekend where just about nobody pitched good (even Libby didn\u2019t really pitch very well despite only one earned run), McGreevy nearly stood alone. He actually hasn\u2019t allowed a hit yet this year. He was mostly working on refining stuff he already had and not new stuff.<\/p>\n
\u201cOver the offseason, refining everything, it\u2019s good to have the data there,\u201c McGreevy said.\u00a0 \u201dYou can\u2019t dive too deep into it, because then you\u2019ll just become a slave to the game, slave to the numbers.\u00a0 Making sure that stuff can be as sharp as possible so there\u2019s no time in spring training that you\u2019re losing.\u201d<\/p>\n
As someone who recently experienced it and who joked that being a vet came quick, he views success this season two ways. One is the obvious: winning games.<\/p>\n
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\u201cBut I think if we can walk away from next season with a clear defined culture and clubhouse that is opening to all the young guys \u2013 there\u2019s going to be plenty of guys making their debut this year \u2013 if they can come up day one and not feel uncomfortable and the only thing that is put on them is to perform, I think that\u2019s success to me,\u201d McGreevy said.<\/p>\n
I think collectively, this could be a good rotation. There are reasons for optimism for all of them, and if there are no weak links, and of course the necessary supplements from Memphis, you give yourself a chance to win every game.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a good group and there\u2019s some depth there.\u201d Marmol said. \u201cWhen you look at May, but you also look at McGreevy taking that next step in his career, you look at Libby take that next step in his career, the excitement of seeing what a Leahy can do.\u00a0 There\u2019s just some moving parts there where every day you can get excited about who is on the bump and what you\u2019re going to see.\u00a0 It\u2019s one of the things I\u2019m most excited about is that rotation and what\u2019s possible for them.\u201d<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t worry. Three games is nothing. The underwhelming performance by the pitching does not guarantee a season of bad pitching. Keep that optimism from spring training going and be glad they picked up two wins when the pitching was this bad.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As most of you know, I was lucky enough to be invited to attend Winter Warmup as a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":652397,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2403],"tags":[1181,5,160,126,4396,1179,1453,4392,4,5943,673,67,4311,4310,4391],"class_list":["post-652396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-st-louis-cardinals","tag-andre-pallante","tag-baseball","tag-cardinals","tag-dustin-may","tag-kyle-leahy","tag-lars-nootbaar","tag-matthew-liberatore","tag-michael-mcgreevy","tag-mlb","tag-oliver-marmol","tag-st-louis","tag-st-louis-cardinals","tag-stlouis","tag-stlouiscardinals","tag-the-cardinals"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116318243802856213","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/652396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=652396"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/652396\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/652397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=652396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=652396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=652396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}