The Diamondbacks wake up this morning with a 27-29 record, the first time they\u2019ve been two games below .500 this year. They sit fourth in the NL West, seven games back of the Dodgers, and are five games back for the final wild-card spot (currently an effective tie between the Padres and Cardinals). The recent series against the Pirates – one of the worst teams in the National League – was a harsh wake-up call for the D-backs. They dropped the series at home, and were outscored by seven, at one stage allowing Pittsburgh to score nineteen unanswered runs. It was a demonstration in miniature of all Arizona\u2019s problems this year. <\/p>\n
So, with an off-day today, I figured it was a good chance to take stock of where the team sits, and what – if anything – can be done to help the team over the remaining two-thirds or so of the season.<\/p>\n
Is change necessary?<\/p>\n
There are arguments which would caution against over-reaction. After all, fan sentiment tends to be very short-term, proclaiming player X to be in a terrible slump, and demanding he be removed from the roster after an 0-for-12 spell [Ok, who are we kidding. X = Pavin Smith] However, we are now 56 games in, and the \u201cIt\u2019s still early\u201d argument is no longer one which can be relied upon. Also growing tenuous is, \u201cWe have a better record than we did at this point last year.\u201d It\u2019s true: the D-backs were two game worse off, at 25-31, and were four games into a five-game losing streak. However, that was very much the low point. When the calendar turned to June, the team would go on a 33-19 run, resurrecting the season.<\/p>\n
While something like that is always possible, it would be optimistic to rely on another two-month spell where this team wins at a near-record pace. Admittedly, the schedule – another common defense of Arizona\u2019s record – does look easier going forward. By virtually every metric, the D-backs have had the hardest<\/a>, or close to<\/a>, schedule of games so far, of any team in the majors. The rest of the way, that\u2019s not the case: Tankathon rates our remaining games<\/a> the third-easiest. However, recently only going 3-3 at home against the Pirates and Rockies is not great. Arizona\u2019s record against teams with losing records is only 10-8 overall, which does suggest it\u2019s not just a strength of schedule issue. <\/p>\n The offense<\/p>\n To get the easy bit out of the way first. Overall, despite the losses of Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, the offense is almost unchanged by OPS on last season, down just one point to 114. However, the team is scoring almost half a run less (5.47 to 4.97). The reason for this is clear: a very sharp drop-off in performance with runners in scoring position. In 2024, this was a strength. The team was first in OPS with RISP at .852 – forty-three points better than anyone else. This season? That has plummeted all the way to .687, ranking the D-backs 21st. Is this fixable? Or is it just bad luck? Because the team\u2019s BABIP with RISP is all the way down at .249, which is third-lowest in the majors. <\/p>\n In terms of personnel, there\u2019s probably not much which can be done here. Reports today indicate that Jordan Lawlar has been sent down to Reno, with Ildemaro Vargas coming up to take his place. But it\u2019s not as if giving Lawlar\u2019s twenty-two plate appearances to somebody else would have moved the needle very much. Elsewhere, perhaps we might see Alek Thomas (OPS+ 87 and dropping, with a .479 OPS over the past three weeks) see more time on the bench, perhaps with Corbin Carroll moving to center, and Randall Grichuk getting more starts in the field. But it\u2019s really just re-arranging the existing pieces, and I do not think we\u2019ll see any significant trade deadline moves from Mike Hazen.<\/p>\n Starting pitching<\/p>\n This certainly has not been the area of strength we hoped it would be, before the season started. Corbin Burnes has been great. Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt have been more than serviceable (though Pfaadt\u2019s 4.91 FIP, the worst of anybody in the rotation, has me worrying about future regression). It\u2019s Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez who have been the problem, combining for 21 starts with an ERA of 6.14, and only four wins between them. It has been suggested that E-Rod should move to the bullpen, with Ryne Nelson taking his spot. Torey Lovullo basically nuked that idea<\/a>, saying \u201cE-Rod\u2019s a starting pitcher and we\u2019re going to keep him that way.\u201d<\/p>\n If FIP is to be believed, that\u2019s for the best. Because Rodriguez\u2019s 4.28 is not only far better than his ERA (7.05), it\u2019s barely distinguishable from Burnes\u2019 4.09. The gap between FIP and ERA for E-Rod is the fifth biggest<\/a> of the 127 pitchers with 40+ innings this season. However, through the end of June last year, Jordan Montgomery\u2019s ERA was two runs above his FIP. The hoped-for regression did not happen, with the figures the rest of the way being 5.96 and 4.55. So there\u2019s no guarantee Rodriguez will get better. However, there\u2019s no denying his contract situation is a factor. Even after this season, he\u2019s owed another $40 million, and few teams will pay that for a reliever. <\/p>\n I wonder if Gallen\u2019s position in the rotation might be more at risk. His FIP (4.57) is higher than Rodriguez, and he\u2019s very unlikely to be a D-back after this season, so it\u2019s not as if the team has to worry about his feelings. I\u2019ve mentioned this before, but Gallen has been very mediocre since coming off the Injured List last June. That\u2019s now 29 starts since then, with an underwhelming 4.64 ERA. Maybe he\u2019ll end up getting moved to the bullpen? It would certainly be something for Arizona\u2019s Opening Day starter to end the year working in relief, but it would not be unprecedented. Josh Collmenter did exactly that in 2015, moving to the bullpen in June after posting a 5.24 ERA as a starter – actually better than Gallen\u2019s right now. <\/p>\n The bullpen<\/p>\n Saving the best on-field area for last. Oh, hang on: sarcasm font doesn\u2019t work in articles. I trust I need hardly draw you a picture about the Arizona relievers of late. They have posted a 6.75 ERA for May, to go with a 2-7 record. With two games left to go, that ERA is currently the worst for a calendar month by the D-backs bullpen in 15 years<\/a>, since the May 2010 version had a franchise-worst 8.56 ERA. [That was a factor in getting A.J. Hinch fired as manager about a month later. I\u2019m just sayin\u2019…] Oddly, this year, the Dodgers actually have more blown saves (12 vs. 11) and the same number of saves as the D-backs (17). The difference is their large edge in holds (43 vs. 30). <\/p>\n It\u2019s here I think we\u2019re likely to see Hazen make some moves, hoping for something along the lines of the 2023 run, where the team picked up Paul Sewald and rode his arm to the World Series. Though it\u2019s worth noting Sewald demonstrates reliever volatility: a three-year spell from 2021-2023 when he had a 2.95 ERA, and a 5.55 ERA over the rest of his career, now in its ninth season. That kind of thing feels like lightning in a bottle, and for every occasion where a trade deadline relief acquisition works, there are others that don\u2019t. Remember Dylan Floro last year? Exactly. 2.06 ERA over 51 games for the Nationals. Came to Arizona and had a 9.37 ERA the rest of the way. So it\u2019s no magic bullet. <\/p>\n There\u2019s been criticism leveled at Hazen for not spending on bullpen help this winter. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s necessarily fair. I suspect the plan was to get as much of Jordan Montgomery as possible off the books, and use that. But Tommy John had other plans, leaving the D-backs to pay all $22.5 million. Though as discussed recently<\/a>, I\u2019m not a fan of paying for expensive relievers, because genuinely \u201creliable\u201d ones are scarce. I think the front-office have already squeezed ownership for just about everything they can in terms of payroll. If an impact arm is to arrive before the trade deadline, it may require spending prospect capital in the deal. But Ben has an article coming up later tonight on bullpen options, so I\u2019ll say no more here!<\/p>\n Off the field<\/p>\n Naturally, change doesn\u2019t just occur within the lines, and there\u2019s increasing pressure likely to come on coaches, the manager and even the front-office. I suspect that\u2019s likely the order of likelihood too. I can certainly see a scenario where pitching coach Brian Kaplan gets the boot, because what was supposed to be a strength this year has become a liability. Despite the arrival of Burnes, the team\u2019s collective ERA+ has declined two points on last season, dropping from 91 to 89. If last year\u2019s performance was deemed poor enough to get Brent Strom canned, it would be logical to conclude Kaplan shouldn\u2019t be kept around. The same goes for bullpen coach Wellington Cepeda.<\/p>\n Naturally, it\u2019s manager Torey Lovullo who has come in for most criticism, but I would not expect any changes before the end of the season. [Changing managers rarely has much effect. The three MLB teams to fire managers this year have improved their W% under the new men by… .039] As ever, it\u2019s very difficult to come up with any kind of objective measure for managerial effectiveness. Some criticism is legitimate. But often he\u2019s maligned for things that are outside his control (Jack has written some good articles on this topic<\/a>), or frankly ludicrous stuff like not calling players out more in press conferences. You want that? Really? But both Derrick Hall and Hazen have recently backed Lovullo<\/a>, Hazen saying:<\/p>\n \u201cHe is ultimately responsible for it, but it is a group that is making decisions based on the information they have. We are aware of why they make those decisions. We\u2019re part of some of that calculus and giving them information that they have available to them. And you trust that they\u2019re making the right decisions, and I do believe he\u2019s doing that. When the execution doesn\u2019t happen, then it\u2019s the easiest place to go is it was his decision that screwed it up. That is not what happens. The players bear a responsibility to execute in those situations.\u201d<\/p>\n But if things don\u2019t change, and the highest payroll in franchise history results in a worse record, and stays home in October? I\u2019m sure Ken Kendrick and the owners will not be happy, and they may [emphasis entirely deliberate] decide on a change in direction this winter. For all Hazen\u2019s successes, he has never been able to solve the pitching question. Even discounting the early, lean years, and beginning after six years of Hazen drafting, development and recruiting, from the pennant winning season of 2023 through now, the D-backs rank 26th in fWAR for pitching<\/a>. That\u2019s not something any successful team can hope to survive in the long-term. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Diamondbacks wake up this morning with a 27-29 record, the first time they\u2019ve been two games below…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":65377,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2404],"tags":[146,22,4497,4314,646,5,38,17721,181,4,4495,4494,173],"class_list":{"0":"post-65376","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-arizona-diamondbacks","8":"tag-arizona","9":"tag-arizona-diamondbacks","10":"tag-arizona-diamondbacks-analysis-amp-commentary","11":"tag-arizonadiamondbacks","12":"tag-az","13":"tag-baseball","14":"tag-diamondbacks","15":"tag-fixing","16":"tag-front-page","17":"tag-mlb","18":"tag-pit","19":"tag-snake","20":"tag-the"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/114594848704405586","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65376\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}