RF Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr. (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
DH Dominic Smith (L)
SS Mauricio Dub\u00f3n (R) <\/p>\n
Quick thoughts:<\/p>\n
2B Ketel Marte (S)
DH Corbin Carroll (L)
SS Geraldo Perdomo (S)
C Gabriel Moreno (R)
CF Alek Thomas (L)
3B Nolan Arenado (R)
1B Carlos Santana (S)
LF Jordan Lawlar (R)
RF Jorge Barrosa (L)<\/p>\n
Quick thoughts:<\/p>\n
That\u2019s an intimidating top four that rapidly falls off. Getting through the first inning will be crucial for L\u00f3pez. <\/p>\n
The only two Diamondbacks that have seen him more than twice are both veterans; backup catcher James McCann is hitting .438 in 16 ABs and first baseman Carlos Santana is hitting .150 in 20 ABs. <\/p>\n
Quick snapshot (2024):<\/p>\n
1.99 ERA \/ 3.91 xERA \/ 2.92 FIP<\/p>\n
27.3 K% \/ 7.7 BB% \/ 1.8% HR<\/p>\n
Pitch mix (avg FB velo = 95.5 mph)<\/p>\n
vs RHH: 56% 4S, 42% slider, 2% curveball, 1% changeup<\/p>\n
vs LHH: 55% 4S, 20% slider, 19% curveball, 7% changeup<\/p>\n
What to watch:<\/p>\n
Lopez\u2019s velo appeared to be fine last Saturday, as he averaged 94.4 mph and touched 97 on multiple occasions. His pitch mix also wasn\u2019t notably different in his first start of the year – a bit less fastball and a bit more slider to lefties, but otherwise he was essentially the same starter as when he was in the rotation in 2024.<\/p>\n
Quick snapshot (2025):<\/p>\n
The arsenal (2025):<\/p>\n
Pitch 1 = four-seamer (95.7 mph, 62% usage)<\/p>\n
Pitch 2 = slider (86.6 mph, 14% usage)<\/p>\n
Pitch 3 = curveball (80.0 mph, 11% usage)<\/p>\n
Pitch 4 = cutter (91 mph, 10% usage)<\/p>\n
Pitch 5 = changeup (87 mph, 3% usage)<\/p>\n
Throwing from a high slot (53\u00b0), Nelson bases everything off of his mid-90s four-seamer with exceptional shape (19.2 inches IVB). He\u2019s throwing it in the middle and top of the zone for whiffs. The breaking balls get scattered in early in the at-bats, but once he gets to two strikes, it\u2019s a fastball-heavy attack that comes right at hitters. <\/p>\n
Vs RHH: fastball heavy
61% four-seamer, 23% slider, 8% of both curveballs and cutters, <1% changeup<\/p>\n
vs LHH: fastball heavy
63% four-seamer, 15% curveball, 12% cutter, 6% changeup, 4% slider<\/p>\n
Sequencing (2025):<\/p>\n
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher\u2019s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.<\/p>\n Sit fastball. He\u2019s going to throw enough other pitches where you can\u2019t completely ignore them, but this will be a test of power vs power – can you catch up to a very good (110 Stuff+) heater? <\/p>\n Try not to chase. Both the slider and the curveball had in-zone rates of less than 41% last year. Make him give you a strike to hit – odds are it\u2019ll be a four-seamer or a cutter when he does. <\/p>\n I\u2019d rather be a righty today than a lefty. Not only is Nelson more streamlined against righties than lefties, but four-seam\/slider is a pretty common pairing so it\u2019s not even that unusual except for the outlier shape. <\/p>\n Likely available:<\/p>\n Osvaldo Bido is probably the long man tonight, and both Joel Payamps and Aaron Bummer are the most rested quasi-leverage arms the Braves have. Tyler Kinley (who hasn\u2019t pitched since Friday and fell off my chart, for some reason) is likely the setup man tonight. <\/p>\n Used recently:<\/p>\n The backend trio of Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, and Dylan Lee all pitched last night, but they\u2019re potentially all available if it\u2019s close. <\/p>\n Potential limitations:<\/p>\n Clearly, Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez\/Jos\u00e9 Suarez are down, but that should be the only definitive unavailable arms. Would be nice to stay away from Iglesias if possible, though, given his 3-day usage count. <\/p>\n Quick takeaway:<\/p>\n If it\u2019s a save situation, Walt Weiss<\/a> has multiple ways he can run this, as virtually the entire leverage contingent of the pen is either available or can be used for a shorter outing.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/d706cfea-43b4-43a6-b4f3-04ab89ea1c40_889x.png\")
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