{"id":662886,"date":"2026-04-04T14:56:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T14:56:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/662886\/"},"modified":"2026-04-04T14:56:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T14:56:31","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-thursday-expect-some-offense-in-arizona","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/662886\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Thursday: Expect some offense in Arizona"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyApr 2, 2026, 07:43 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Thursday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Corbin Carroll<\/a> | OVER 0.5 RBI (+194)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Carroll’s maximum exit velocity (an advanced metric to study power) has been 115.8 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 92nd percentile.<\/p>\n

Carter Jensen<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 H+R+RBI (-156)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.85 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, 13% of the time that Jensen has started against a right-handed hurler, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.<\/p>\n

Byron Buxton<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+166)
Projection: 43% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.51 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past week, Buxton has failed to produce much power, posting a 0 Barrel%. Yes, that’s zero.<\/p>\n

Thursday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Cole Ragans<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 ER (+115)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, the maximum exit velocity of any player on the Minnesota Twins<\/a> has been 114 mph, making them the No. 30 MLB offense by this metric.<\/p>\n

Robbie Ray<\/a> | OVER 5.5 K (-117)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.38 EV
One reason to bet this: Ray has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 9.11 K\/9 — despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.92.<\/p>\n

Ryne Nelson<\/a> | OVER 4.5 K (+107)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.82 EV
One reason to bet this: Nelson’s fastball velocity since the start of 2025 (95 mph) ranks in the 78th percentile out of all SPs.<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

OPP.<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Taj Bradley<\/p>\n

@ KC<\/p>\n

+129<\/p>\n

39.9<\/p>\n

-9.75<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-9.74<\/p>\n

9.5<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

8.96<\/p>\n

-24.67<\/p>\n

Cole Ragans<\/p>\n

vs. MIN<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

60.1<\/p>\n

-0.57<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-2.54<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

14.47<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reynaldo Lopez<\/p>\n

@ ARI<\/p>\n

-118<\/p>\n

49.0<\/p>\n

-9.64<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+102<\/p>\n

-14.25<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

9.62<\/p>\n

-3.93<\/p>\n

Ryne Nelson<\/p>\n

vs. ATL<\/p>\n

-102<\/p>\n

51.1<\/p>\n

1.18<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-133<\/p>\n

0.82<\/p>\n

U -127<\/p>\n

-7.97<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

David Peterson<\/p>\n

@ SF<\/p>\n

-126<\/p>\n

54.3<\/p>\n

-1.58<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+102<\/p>\n

-3.04<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -122<\/p>\n

8.50<\/p>\n

9.33<\/p>\n

Robbie Ray<\/p>\n

vs. NYM<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

45.7<\/p>\n

-7.93<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-132<\/p>\n

-8.61<\/p>\n

U +102<\/p>\n

-19.36<\/p>\n

Top betting trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves<\/a> Run Line:
The Braves have won this bet in 13 consecutive road games. (+13.20 Units \/ 73% ROI). Current odds: -1 @ +102<\/p>\n

Minnesota Twins<\/a> Game Total UNDER:
The Twins have had this total hit the under in nine straight contests. (+9.00 Units \/ 92% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -118<\/p>\n

San Francisco Giants<\/a> Team Total OVER:
This bet has hit for the Giants in 14 of their last 20 home games. (+7.15 Units \/ 30% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +105<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> Team Total OVER:
Arizona has won this wager in 13 of their last 20 games. (+5.95 Units \/ 26% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -140<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyApr 2, 2026, 07:43 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":662887,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2288],"tags":[5,2328,2304,4,2305,2303],"class_list":{"0":"post-662886","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-postseason","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-major-league-baseball-playoffs","10":"tag-major-league-baseball-postseason","11":"tag-mlb","12":"tag-mlb-playoffs","13":"tag-mlb-postseason"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116347026158609449","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/662886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=662886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/662886\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/662887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=662886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=662886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=662886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}