{"id":663024,"date":"2026-04-04T16:30:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T16:30:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/663024\/"},"modified":"2026-04-04T16:30:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T16:30:43","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-saturday-keep-an-eye-on-homers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/663024\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Saturday: Keep an eye on homers"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyApr 4, 2026, 10:55 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Saturday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Alec Burleson<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.70 EV
One reason to bet this: Burleson’s 91.1 mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in the game since the start of last season, in the 79th percentile.<\/p>\n

Tyler Freeman<\/a> | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.49 EV
One reason to bet this: Freeman has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season, as his .283 rate is considerably lower than his .296 Expected Batting Average, based on my projections’ interpretation of Statcast data.<\/p>\n

Addison Barger<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+183)
Projection: 45% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.05 EV
One reason to bet this: Barger has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, striking balls between 23 degrees and 34 degrees just 0% of the time over the past seven days.<\/p>\n

Saturday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Jack Flaherty<\/a> | OVER 6.5 K (+114)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.48 EV
One reason to bet this: Jake Rogers<\/a>, the Tigers’ expected catcher today, profiles as a good pitch framer according to my projections.<\/p>\n

Landen Roupp<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 ER (+122)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.51 EV
One reason to bet this: It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (David Rackley) calling pitches in this game.<\/p>\n

Luis Morales<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-114)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.67 EV
One reason to bet this: Low humidity has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report expects the driest conditions of all games on the slate at 11%.<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Brandon Sproat<\/p>\n

-110<\/p>\n

54.7<\/p>\n

5.40<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+114<\/p>\n

3.73<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

8.83<\/p>\n

-6.56<\/p>\n

Seth Lugo<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

46.9<\/p>\n

-9.27<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-145<\/p>\n

-10.08<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

1.44<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dustin May<\/p>\n

+135<\/p>\n

42.3<\/p>\n

-0.52<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-1.45<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

7.89<\/p>\n

-4.76<\/p>\n

Jack Flaherty<\/p>\n

-163<\/p>\n

57.7<\/p>\n

-6.95<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-10.83<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

-4.10<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mason Fluharty<\/p>\n

-149<\/p>\n

52.7<\/p>\n

-10.98<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-15.25<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.35<\/p>\n

-16.41<\/p>\n

Grant Taylor<\/p>\n

+123<\/p>\n

47.3<\/p>\n

4.21<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

3.56<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

7.14<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tatsuya Imai<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

48.9<\/p>\n

-8.58<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+106<\/p>\n

-12.68<\/p>\n

10.0<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

9.53<\/p>\n

-27.67<\/p>\n

Luis Morales<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

51.1<\/p>\n

-0.23<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-139<\/p>\n

-0.94<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

19.70<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tyler Glasnow<\/p>\n

-308<\/p>\n

73.0<\/p>\n

-2.40<\/p>\n

-2.5<\/p>\n

-125<\/p>\n

-2.24<\/p>\n

9.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

10.24<\/p>\n

-4.35<\/p>\n

Jake Irvin<\/p>\n

+244<\/p>\n

27.1<\/p>\n

-9.46<\/p>\n

+2.5<\/p>\n

-104<\/p>\n

-10.38<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-4.72<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Shane Baz<\/p>\n

-110<\/p>\n

52.2<\/p>\n

-0.14<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+113<\/p>\n

-1.74<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

9.89<\/p>\n

9.57<\/p>\n

Carmen Mlodzinski<\/p>\n

-110<\/p>\n

47.8<\/p>\n

-8.96<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-148<\/p>\n

-9.73<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-17.96<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Randy Vasquez<\/p>\n

+123<\/p>\n

44.7<\/p>\n

-0.12<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-125<\/p>\n

-0.84<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

8.18<\/p>\n

-8.25<\/p>\n

Connelly Early<\/p>\n

-149<\/p>\n

55.3<\/p>\n

-7.74<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-104<\/p>\n

-11.91<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

-0.85<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rhett Lowder<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

42.3<\/p>\n

-8.13<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-128<\/p>\n

-9.30<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

9.17<\/p>\n

-4.98<\/p>\n

Kumar Rocker<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

57.7<\/p>\n

-1.36<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-101<\/p>\n

-2.33<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-4.09<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Max Meyer<\/p>\n

+163<\/p>\n

38.4<\/p>\n

0.73<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

1.96<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -117<\/p>\n

7.64<\/p>\n

-14.63<\/p>\n

Ryan Weathers<\/p>\n

-199<\/p>\n

61.6<\/p>\n

-7.29<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

-11.84<\/p>\n

U -103<\/p>\n

6.37<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Steven Matz<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

47.8<\/p>\n

-7.56<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

-10.36<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.59<\/p>\n

3.69<\/p>\n

Mick Abel<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

52.2<\/p>\n

-1.57<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-155<\/p>\n

-2.82<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-12.63<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Shota Imanaga<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

61.7<\/p>\n

8.35<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

8.85<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

9.09<\/p>\n

5.37<\/p>\n

Slade Cecconi<\/p>\n

+113<\/p>\n

38.3<\/p>\n

-20.00<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-20.29<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-13.94<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bryce Elder<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

54.5<\/p>\n

6.85<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+114<\/p>\n

4.03<\/p>\n

9.5<\/p>\n

O -110<\/p>\n

9.78<\/p>\n

-13.40<\/p>\n

Mike Soroka<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

45.5<\/p>\n

-15.36<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-149<\/p>\n

-14.12<\/p>\n

U -110<\/p>\n

4.31<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jesus Luzardo<\/p>\n

-240<\/p>\n

67.6<\/p>\n

-3.99<\/p>\n

-2.5<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

-6.27<\/p>\n

10.0<\/p>\n

O -123<\/p>\n

11.85<\/p>\n

8.94<\/p>\n

Valente Bellozo<\/p>\n

+194<\/p>\n

32.4<\/p>\n

-5.24<\/p>\n

+2.5<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-5.90<\/p>\n

U -106<\/p>\n

-22.44<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Clay Holmes<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

46.7<\/p>\n

-10.98<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+115<\/p>\n

-14.84<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

8.00<\/p>\n

-9.51<\/p>\n

Landen Roupp<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

53.3<\/p>\n

2.02<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-150<\/p>\n

0.65<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

1.04<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Emerson Hancock<\/p>\n

-168<\/p>\n

56.2<\/p>\n

-10.11<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

-9.94<\/p>\n

9.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

10.45<\/p>\n

-1.78<\/p>\n

Jack Kochanowicz<\/p>\n

+139<\/p>\n

43.8<\/p>\n

4.32<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

0.78<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-7.25<\/p>\n

Top betting trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves<\/a> Run Line
The Braves have won this bet in 13 straight away games. (+13.20 Units \/ 73% ROI). Current odds: -1 @ +114<\/p>\n

Minnesota Twins<\/a> Game Total UNDER
The Twins’ game totals have been under in nine straight games. (+9.00 Units \/ 92% ROI). Current odds: 7.5 @ -112<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> Moneyline
(away) The Dodgers have won this bet in 13 of their last 15 games. (+10.30 Units \/ 52% ROI). Current odds: -308<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyApr 4, 2026, 10:55 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":663025,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2288],"tags":[5,2328,2304,4,2305,2303],"class_list":{"0":"post-663024","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-postseason","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-major-league-baseball-playoffs","10":"tag-major-league-baseball-postseason","11":"tag-mlb","12":"tag-mlb-playoffs","13":"tag-mlb-postseason"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116347395088183408","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663024"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663024\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}