{"id":663308,"date":"2026-04-04T19:44:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T19:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/663308\/"},"modified":"2026-04-04T19:44:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T19:44:31","slug":"mlb-dfs-draftkings-picks-breakdown-saturday-april-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/663308\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Saturday, April 4)"},"content":{"rendered":"

The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics<\/a> to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models<\/a>.<\/p>\n

MLB DFS Pitching Picks<\/p>\n

MLB DFS Stud Pick<\/p>\n

Jesus Luzardo (L) $8,800 Philadelphia Phillies (-245) at Colorado Rockies<\/p>\n

Saturday\u2019s MLB main slate is not exactly loaded with high-end pitching talent. No one is priced above $9,100, and Clay Holmes is the only pitcher priced above $8,800.<\/p>\n

On paper, Luzardo is probably the most talented arm who will take the bump. He pitched to a 3.33 xERA and 2.90 FIP in his first year with the Phillies, and he added 10.58 strikeouts per nine innings. His first start this season wasn\u2019t good \u2013 six earned runs over six innings vs. the Rangers \u2013 but his underlying metrics suggest he was more unlucky than bad. He had just a 2.86 xERA in that contest, and he still managed seven strikeouts.<\/p>\n

The only downside with Luzardo is that he will head into the toughest pitching environment in baseball. He\u2019ll have to navigate the altitude of Coors Field, which has the worst Statcast Park Factor<\/a> for pitchers. However, he will at least still get to face the Rockies. They were dead last in wRC+ vs. southpaws last season, so Luzardo should still be able to find some success in this spot.<\/p>\n

Vegas<\/a> is giving Luzardo the most win equity of any pitcher on this slate. He\u2019s a -245 favorite, and no other pitcher is in the same stratosphere. He also has the top K Prediction in our MLB Models, which is a nice combination.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, the good outweighs the bad for Luzardo on Saturday. He\u2019s projected to be the highest-owned<\/a> pitcher on the slate, but he also brings the top median and ceiling projections to the table.<\/p>\n

MLB DFS Value Pick<\/p>\n

Ryan Weathers (L) $6,700 New York Yankees (-197) vs. Miami Marlins<\/p>\n

Weathers stands out as the clear-cut No. 1 pitcher for fantasy purposes on this slate. He\u2019s simply way too cheap at $6,700 after moving to New York from Miami this offseason.<\/p>\n

Weathers posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his final two years with the Marlins, and he got off to a strong start with the Yankees. He lasted just 4.1 innings in his first outing, but he racked up seven strikeouts while allowing just one earned run.<\/p>\n

His first start this season came vs. the Mariners, so his second represents a clear step down in opponent quality. The Marlins aren\u2019t the same punching bag that they\u2019ve been at some points in their history, but they were merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. southpaws last season. Their projected lineup<\/a> has a splits-adjusted .291 wOBA over the past 12 months, the lowest on the main slate.<\/p>\n

As a result, Weathers has the top Vegas data among Saturday\u2019s starters. His -197 moneyline odds rank second only to Luzardo, while his 3.2 opponent implied run total ranks first. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus\/Minus<\/a> of +1.59 (per the Trends tool<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Weathers ultimately owns the top projected Plus\/Minus on the slate, and he has decent upside as well. He\u2019s No. 3 among starters in projected ceiling, and he ranks second in terms of K Prediction.<\/p>\n

Now available:\u00a0our\u00a0MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator<\/a>\u00a0that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.<\/p>\n

MLB DFS GPP Picks<\/p>\n

Shota Imanaga (L) $8,400 Chicago Cubs (-135) at Cleveland Guardians<\/p>\n

Imanaga wasn\u2019t nearly as impressive in 2025 as he was in his first MLB season, but he still posted a solid 3.73 ERA across 144.2 innings. He draws a solid matchup Saturday vs. the Guardians, who have struggled against southpaws. They ranked 23rd in wRC+ in that split last season, and they also sported the 10th-highest strikeout rate. Imanaga is tied with two other starters for the second-lowest implied team total of the day, and he\u2019s the largest favorite of that group.<\/p>\n

Emerson Hancock (R) $6,600 Seattle Mariners (-160) at Los Angeles Angels<\/p>\n

Hancock was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, though he\u2019s been a disappointment at the MLB level in his career so far. That said, perhaps he\u2019s ready to turn the corner in 2026. His first start was an absolute gem, tossing six no-hit innings with nine strikeouts vs. the Guardians. Hancock has the potential to build on that performance Saturday vs. the Angels. They had the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handers last year, so Hancock has plenty of appeal in this matchup. He ranks second at the position in projected Plus\/Minus, while his $6,600 price tag comes with a 97% Bargain Rating.<\/p>\n

Landon Roupp (R) $7,900 San Francisco Giants (-101) vs. New York Mets<\/p>\n

Roupp will get the ball vs. the Mets on Saturday, but New York hasn\u2019t exactly been firing on all cylinders to start the year. They did manage 10 runs on Friday, but they\u2019re still merely 12th in wRC+ vs. right-handers so far this season. Juan Soto also exited Friday\u2019s game with an injury, and while it doesn\u2019t seem too serious, there\u2019s a chance he\u2019s out of the lineup on Saturday. That would make their lineup even less imposing. Roupp also gets the benefit of facing them in San Francisco, which has historically been a pitcher-friendly park.<\/p>\n

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks<\/p>\n

Notable Stack<\/p>\n

With the Lineup Builder<\/a>, it\u2019s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.<\/p>\n

Also, don\u2019t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer<\/a> to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.<\/p>\n

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model<\/a> when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

While Luzardo facing the Rockies at Coors Field gives him a clear downgrade, it\u2019s a pretty massive upgrade for their lineup. They scored 10 runs in their first game in Colorado on Friday, and they lead the slate with a 6.2 implied run total on Saturday.<\/p>\n

The Phillies will get to square off with Chase Dollander, who is considered one of the Rockies\u2019 most-promising young pitchers. That said, that promise has yet to materialize into actual results. He was dreadful in his first taste of big-league action last year, pitching to a 6.52 ERA and 5.13 xERA across 21 starts. Dollander didn\u2019t look much improved in his first outing of 2026, allowing four runs and three homers in just four innings vs. the Blue Jays in Toronto.<\/p>\n

Philadelphia\u2019s lineup is still one of the most dangerous in all of baseball. It is anchored by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who are both capable of doing serious damage vs. right-handed pitchers. Trea Turner also has an appealing combination of power and speed at the top of the lineup, while Alec Bohm and Adolis Garcia round out the top projected stack.<\/p>\n

Of course, the only downside with targeting a team at Coors Field is that they\u2019re going to be chalky. You\u2019re not going to catch anyone off guard by targeting the Phillies on Saturday, so make sure you\u2019re diversifying your lineup with the rest of your selections.<\/p>\n

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our\u00a0MLB DFS Simulations<\/a> and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!<\/p>\n

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks<\/p>\n

One of the great features of being a\u00a0FantasyLabs Pro member<\/a>\u00a0is the option to purchase additional items in the\u00a0FantasyLabs Marketplace<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In addition to our in-house MLB projections,\u00a0THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders<\/a>\u00a0is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create\u00a0aggregate projections<\/a>\u00a0within our Player Models.<\/p>\n

For this example, we created a 50\/50 blend with THE BAT X<\/a>\u00a0and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Luke Raley, 1B\/OF ($3,300) Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz)<\/p>\n

After the Phillies, the Mariners look like the next most logical target for DFS players. They\u2019re implied for the second-most runs on this slate, and they have an exploitable matchup vs. Kochanowicz. He had a 6.81 ERA last season, and he allowed five runs in just four innings of work in his first start this year.<\/p>\n

Raley isn\u2019t expected to be in the top five in the Mariners\u2019 lineup on Saturday, but he\u2019s a nice value target at just $3,300. He posted solid marks against right-handed pitchers last year, and he owns the top projected Plus\/Minus for all non-Phillies in our blended projection set.<\/p>\n

Chandler Simpson, OF ($4,000) Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins (Mick Abel)<\/p>\n

Power is always a clear priority for DFS players, but speed can be occasionally overlooked. Players who are capable of stealing bases can still rack up a strong handful of fantasy points, which we\u2019ve seen from Simpson so far this season. He\u2019s posted a positive Plus\/Minus in six of his first seven games despite swiping just two bags during that stretch.<\/p>\n

Simpson is capable of way more with his legs. He\u2019s arguably the fastest player in the major leagues, and he had 44 steals in 109 MLB games last year. He had more than 100 stolen bases in the minor leagues in 2024, so he\u2019s a major threat to lead the league in that department this season. As long as he can continue to hit enough, he\u2019s underpriced at $4,000.<\/p>\n

Eugenio Suarez, 3B ($4,500) Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers (Kumar Rocker)<\/p>\n

Is Suarez going to hit 49 homers again this season? Probably not, but he does already have two in his first seven games this year. He remains one of the league\u2019s streakiest power hitters, capable of hitting homers in bunches.<\/p>\n

Suarez has a .276 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the top mark among Saturday\u2019s third basemen. Rocker is also no stranger to allowing hard contact. He ranked in the bottom five percent for both barrel rate and hard-hit rate last year, so Suarez definitely has the potential to go deep in this matchup. He\u2019s projected for less than 5% ownership on this slate, making him an interesting target for tournaments.<\/p>\n

Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pictured: Jesus Luzardo
Photo Credit: Imagn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":365312,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2276],"tags":[5,2291,4,1586],"class_list":{"0":"post-663308","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-draft","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-major-league-baseball-draft","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-mlb-draft"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116348156856142240","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663308"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663308\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/365312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}