{"id":664841,"date":"2026-04-05T15:57:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-05T15:57:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/664841\/"},"modified":"2026-04-05T15:57:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T15:57:17","slug":"top-picks-from-the-mlb-betting-splits-for-sunday-april-5th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/664841\/","title":{"rendered":"Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Sunday April 5th"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded <a href=\"https:\/\/data.vsin.com\/mlb\/games\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">16 game MLB slate<\/a> to choose from. Let\u2019s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our <a href=\"https:\/\/data.vsin.com\/betting-splits\/?source=DK&amp;sport=MLB\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">VSiN MLB Betting Splits<\/a>, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.<\/p>\n<p>This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. <\/p>\n<p>The Red Sox (2-6) won the opener 5-2, taking care of business as -130 home favorites. Then the Padres (3-5) bounced back with a 3-2 win yesterday, coming through as +125 road dogs.<\/p>\n<p>In this afternoon\u2019s series finale, San Diego hands the ball to righty Walker Buehler (0-1, 6.75 ERA) and Boston goes with lefty Ranger Suarez (0-1, 8.31 ERA).<\/p>\n<p>This line opened with Boston listed as a -145 home favorite and San Diego a +125 road dog.<\/p>\n<p>Wiseguys have sided with the Red Sox to earn a victory and take the series, steaming Boston up from -145 to -155.<\/p>\n<p>At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the Red Sox earning a victory at Fenway Park.<\/p>\n<p>The Red Sox have also received heavy run-line support (-1.5 at +130), with Boston taking in 53% of spread bets and 91% of spread dollars at DraftKings. <\/p>\n<p>Home favorites off a loss, the like Red Sox here, are 22-10 (69%) with a 14% ROI this season. <\/p>\n<p>Boston has additional betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the \u201cbetter\u201d team who is expected to win.<\/p>\n<p>The Padres are hitting just .209 against lefties this season, ranking 21st in MLB. <\/p>\n<p>The Reds (5-3) have won the first two games of this three-game Interleague set, taking the opener 5-3 as +140 road dogs and then earning another victory yesterday 2-0 as +120 road dogs.<\/p>\n<p>In this afternoon\u2019s series finale, the Reds go with righty Chase Burns (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Rangers start fellow righty Jack Leiter (1-0, 3.00 ERA).<\/p>\n<p>This line opened with Texas listed as low as a -115 home favorite and Cincinnati a -105 road dog.<\/p>\n<p>Sharps have gotten down on the Rangers to avoid the sweep at a cheap moneyline price, driving Texas up from -115 to -125.<\/p>\n<p>At DraftKings, the Rangers are taking in 59% of moneyline bets and 60% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Texas is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way bet discrepancy in favor of Texas, especially the wisguys in Vegas.<\/p>\n<p>Sweet spot home favorites -125 to -140 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Rangers are, are 73-52 (58%) with a 3% ROI since 2025. <\/p>\n<p>Home favorites who lost the first two games of a series and are looking to avoid the sweep are 232-119 (66%) with a 12% ROI since 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Texas has the better batting average (.239 vs .203) and have scored more runs (35 vs 24). <\/p>\n<p>The Rangers have also hit better against righties (.242 vs .195). <\/p>\n<p>The Tigers (4-4) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 4-0 as -180 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 11-6 as -165 home favorites.<\/p>\n<p>In tonight\u2019s series finale, the Cardinals (4-4) send out righty Kyle Leahy (0-1, 7.20 ERA) and the Tigers tap fellow righty Keider Montero, who is making his 2026 debut after going 5-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>This line opened with Detroit listed as a -130 home favorite and St. Louis a +110 road dog.<\/p>\n<p>Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the wood with Detroit to complete the sweep, driving the Tigers up from -130 to -140.<\/p>\n<p>At Circa, the Tigers are receiving 50% of moneyline bets but a massive 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable \u201clow bets, higher dollars\u201d sharp split in favor of the home chalk from the sharps in the desert.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve also seen a flood of smart money hit the Detroit run-line (-1.5 at +150), with the Tigers taking in 53% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars at DraftKings.<\/p>\n<p>Home favorites facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 44-22 (67%) with an 8% ROI this season. Non-divison home favorites off a win priced -150 or less with a line move in their direction are 107-68 (61%) with a 9% ROI since 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Sunday Night Baseball home favorites are 238-148 (62%) with a 4% ROI since 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Detroit has additional betting system value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the \u201cbetter\u201d team who is expected to win. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 16 game MLB slate to choose from. Let\u2019s examine where&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":165606,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2290],"tags":[5,160,43,149,89,536,594],"class_list":{"0":"post-664841","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-baseball","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-cardinals","10":"tag-padres","11":"tag-rangers","12":"tag-red-sox","13":"tag-reds","14":"tag-tigers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116352925608971297","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=664841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664841\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/165606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=664841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=664841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=664841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}