DH Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr (R) Quick thoughts:<\/p>\n It\u2019s the first real \u2018load management lineup for Atlanta, with Ronald getting a day at DH and Jorge Mateo checking in at shortstop while Mauricio Dub\u00f3n gives the struggling Austin Riley<\/a> a day off. <\/p>\n It\u2019s been a long time since we\u2019ve seen a Braves lineup that doesn\u2019t worry about having a three lefty lane or a three righty lane, but here you go – four consecutive lefties towards the top and three consecutive righties to close it out. <\/p>\n 2B Ketel Marte<\/a> (S) Quick thoughts:<\/p>\n I was curious what their lefty lineup would look like after losing Jordan Lawlar<\/a>, who historically hit lefties well in the minors. <\/p>\n Among the regulars who are getting the day off (barring a pinch-hit or defensive appearance later) are catcher Gabriel Moreno<\/a> and centerfielder Alek Thomas<\/a>. <\/p>\n Quick snapshot (2025):<\/p>\n 3.54 ERA \/ 5.36 xERA \/ 4.24 FIP <\/p>\n 19.3 K% \/ 9.6 BB% \/ 2.6% HR rate<\/p>\n Pitch mix (2025)<\/p>\n vs RHH: 33% cutter, 30% changeup, 28% sinker, 6% curveball, 3% four-seamer<\/p>\n vs LHH: 40% sinker, 25% changeup, 15% each of cutter & curveball, 5% four-seamer<\/p>\n What\u2019s different so far this year? <\/p>\n What to watch:<\/p>\n It\u2019s all about the velocity differences and locations here – the sinker and changeup have very similar movement profiles, with less than half an inch of IVB between the two and just over one inch of horizontal movement difference on average. Keeping hitters guessing at which one is on the black (and not over the heart of the plate) will be key here. <\/p>\n Quick snapshot (2025):<\/p>\n The arsenal (2025):<\/p>\n Pitch 1 = sinker (93.1 mph, 23.5% usage)<\/p>\n Pitch 2 = four-seamer (93.6 mph, 23.4% usage)<\/p>\n Pitch 3 = sweeper (84.7 mph, 19% usage)<\/p>\n Pitch 4 = changeup (87.3 mph, 16% usage)<\/p>\n Pitch 5 = curveball (82 mph, 10% usage)<\/p>\n Pitch 6 = cutter (89.8 mph, 9% usage)<\/p>\n What\u2019s different so far this year?<\/p>\n Same six pitches so far in his first start of the year, but he dramatically minimized his four-seam usage and replaced it with more cutters, as well as going to his curveball as the 2nd-most pitch and primary breaking ball over the sweeper. <\/p>\n In last year\u2019s game plans, Pfaadt was just throwing stuff against the wall against lefties in an attempt to get them out. He at least had a defined game plan against right-handers: sweepers away, sinkers in, and four-seam fastballs up. <\/p>\n In his first start this year, Pfaadt made a concentrated effort to throw curveballs early in at-bats to lefties, looking for whiffs. Something to watch for today. <\/p>\n Vs RHH: Pick a side of the plate<\/p>\n (2025): 33% sinker, 30% sweeper, 19% four-seamer, 6% each of changeup & cutter, 5% curveball <\/p>\n Vs LHH: Vary the velo and just kitchen sink it<\/p>\n (2025): 27% four-seamer, 23% changeup, 15% sinker, 14% curveball, 11% cutter, 9% sweeper <\/p>\n Sequencing (2025):<\/p>\n How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher\u2019s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.<\/p>\n Several Braves have seen Pfaadt well, with Jonah Heim<\/a> (.400) having homered and Mike Yastrzemski (.571), Drake Baldwin (.600), and Austin Riley (.400) all having good success in their five or more career ABs. <\/p>\n Conversely, Ozzie Albies is just 1-10, Michael Harris II is 1-7, and Matt Olson is only 2-9 against Pfaadt. <\/p>\n Last season, the team\u2019s worst qualified hitter against sweepers was Harris (-3 Run Value, -2.3 Run Value per 100 pitches), while the best were Acu\u00f1a (+5 RV, +4.0 RV\/100) and Austin Riley (+3 RV, +1.6 RV\/100).<\/p>\n Likely available:<\/p>\n Used recently:<\/p>\n Tyler Kinley<\/a>\u2019s seven pitches last night won\u2019t preclude him coming back today if they think it\u2019s a good matchup, but why? Just about everyone else is available. <\/p>\n Potential limitations:<\/p>\n Osvaldo Bido<\/a> likely needs one more day before he\u2019s back in the mix, but other than him, the pen is good to go. <\/p>\n Quick takeaway:<\/p>\n Likely available:<\/p>\n Andrew Hoffman<\/a> and Kevin Ginkel<\/a>, who each got two days off after 20+ pitches in Thursday\u2019s series opener, should be good to go today. Ryan Thompson<\/a>, who has thrown two pitches in the last week, is likely the first man out. <\/p>\n Used recently:<\/p>\n Potential limitations:<\/p>\n In a perfect world, Juan Morillo<\/a> isn\u2019t asked to pitch a third game in three days. <\/p>\n It\u2019d almost be malpractice to throw closer Paul Sewald<\/a> today, but as he\u2019s the closer, managers typically treat them differently. <\/p>\n Quick takeaway:<\/p>\n Who is closing today if Arizona has a lead? <\/p>\n Have fun figuring this one out, Torey Lovullo<\/a>.<\/p>\n Maybe it\u2019s me, but this feels like a Ronald Acu\u00f1a game.<\/p>\n Good speed in the lineup today, which helps mitigate some of the groundball tendencies of Brandon Pfaadt. <\/p>\n
C Drake Baldwin<\/a> (L)
1B Matt Olson<\/a> (L)
LF Mike Yastrzemski<\/a> (L)
CF Michael Harris II<\/a> (L)
2B Ozzie Albies<\/a> (S)
3B Mauricio Dub\u00f3n<\/a> (R)
RF Eli White<\/a> (R)
SS Jorge Mateo<\/a> (R)<\/p>\n
RF Corbin Carroll<\/a> (L)
SS Geraldo Perdomo<\/a> (S)
3B Nolan Arenado<\/a> (R)
DH Jose Fernandez<\/a> (R)
1B Carlos Santana<\/a> (S)
LF Tim Tawa<\/a> (R)
C James McCann<\/a> (R)
CF Jorge Barrosa<\/a> (S)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/5fed5e5c-71c2-42dd-a57a-a4f2c12cfdc2_951x.png\" "\\"\\"")
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