Clearly the more data you have, the less noisy whatever statistic you are looking at becomes.<\/p>\n
So early on, you run the risk of both underrating, and overrating the limited information available to you.<\/p>\n
Extrapolating from limited data points can lead to significant swings and misses with immediate assessments.<\/p>\n
All you are doing right now is to trying to determine what matter, and what doesn\u2019t?<\/p>\n
What is sustainable, and what\u2019s not?<\/p>\n
Do the players have track-records which give some indication of what we should expect?
Historical precedence?<\/p>\n
Fans and Media come into seasons with expectations for teams and players.
I\u2019m sure Front Offices, Managers & Coaches, and players also have their own preexisting expectations.<\/p>\n
Then the games start, and the results start to come in.
And the results either serve as confirmation bias towards the thoughts you had before a season started, or live in contradiction.<\/p>\n
When the results match your expectations, you expect that to continue.
When the results contradict what you anticipated, you expect a course correction as sample size grows.<\/p>\n
Baseball will always be a game built around failure.
It\u2019s also a game where statistical analysis grows and tells a more complete story as seasons progress.
The analytics which have infiltrated baseball the past 25 years have changed the game in some ways, but more accurately have just revealed more truths.<\/p>\n
However, for all of the analysis and data which exists; seasons do not always go to plan when the lights turn on.
Why might that be?
Well, there will always be variance. Every season begins with a myriad of possible outcomes within an expected window.
But you aren\u2019t playing these seasons 1,000 times in a simulation.
You are playing it once, in real life, and that can lead to season which surprise in and out of that expected window.<\/p>\n
Most things will find their equilibrium.
The .260 career hitter with 1,000 career ab\u2019s that\u2019s batting .315 in the middle of May; typically will find his average creeping down towards the career average with more at-bats.
Or maybe that early success is a harbinger of what\u2019s to come, and this season becomes a career year?<\/p>\n
Baseball can be a cold game.
At some point the numbers are the numbers.
You are what the numbers say you are.
In these early weeks of a season, there is a degree of artistry in-determining what\u2019s real, and what\u2019s not.<\/p>\n
Some snap judgements and pronouncements you make now, will likely look silly later.
Some snap judgements and pronouncements you make now, will likely look prescient later too.<\/p>\n
Here we review some things we\u2019ve seen in this 9 game stretch, and give our snap judgements.<\/p>\n
The Defense Is Limiting<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t think we need a larger sample to determine the ceiling for this group is only so high.<\/p>\n
Rutschman, Henderson, and Cowser all have the ability to average and above at their positions.
That probably holds true for Alexander, Jeremiah Jackson, and Jackson Holliday (when Holliday returns) at 2nd.
Mayo is below average a 3rd.
Alonso is average at best at 1st.
Ward, and O\u2019Neill are below average on the OF corners.\u00a0 Beavers might be average.<\/p>\n
If Enrique Bradfield takes over CF at some point, and Cowser takes over an OF corner; the OF defense can improve.
If Westburg returns in June, and shows he can stay in the lineup \u2013 then 3rd base can be improved as well.<\/p>\n
Right now you probably start Mayo at 3rd, and look to bring in Alexander as a defensive replacement in close and late.
You are probably replacing O\u2019Neill or Ward with Beavers when possible.<\/p>\n
There isn\u2019t a great scenario for bringing up Bradfield.
That would likely take Cowser not hitting at all, or an injury occurring to Ward or O\u2019Neill.<\/p>\n
With or without Bradfield, and Westburg joining the roster and improving the glove-work, this isn\u2019t going to be an elite defensive team.
Which means the pitchers aren\u2019t helped.
Less put-outs made, more runners on the basepaths.
Less room for error for the staff.<\/p>\n
The Touted Rotation Depth Already Has Issues<\/p>\n
Eflin lasted 3.2 innings before his IL stint, and is now getting a 2nd opinion on his elbow.\u00a0 Would like to be wrong, but can\u2019t say I have a lot of confidence in him contributing this year.<\/p>\n
37 year old Chris Bassitt has now made two starts as an Oriole, and is giving 2025 Charlie Morton vibes. Bassitt made 30+ starts each of the last four seasons, and has been a reliably productive starter.
If he\u2019s suddenly done, that\u2019s limiting to the O\u2019s expectations as a whole.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m glad Kremer is still around, I trust him to help the back of the rotation.<\/p>\n
If another starter is needed, Tyler Wells and Albert Suarez give the O\u2019s a couple of possibilities. Ideally both would be able to stay in the O\u2019s pen and help there.<\/p>\n
Ultimately Rogers, Bradish, and Baz have to lead the staff.\u00a0 Bradish having 6 walks in his first two outings isn\u2019t great.
I think myself and other O\u2019s fans will breathe easier, if he\u2019s strong his next turn.<\/p>\n
The Bullpen Is Not Good Enough<\/p>\n
My thought entering the year was if the rotation was solid in-front, and Helsley was at All-Star form at Closer; the \u2018pen could be good enough.<\/p>\n
I did say my expectation would be that the O\u2019s would need to add a high-leverage arm at the deadline.<\/p>\n
Those would still be my general opinions.
But looking at this group further, I just don\u2019t have a lot of trust in these arms.<\/p>\n
If I were the O\u2019s Front Office, I\u2019d consider prioritizing acquiring another arm you can have confidence in sooner than later.<\/p>\n
Is This Team Going To Hit Enough?<\/p>\n
Through 9 games, the O\u2019s have had 5 games of 3 runs scored or less.<\/p>\n
They entered today 7th in on-base %, but just 16th in slugging %.<\/p>\n
This team is expected to slug.
They need to slug, and consistently hit for power.<\/p>\n
The rotation and bullpen can be good enough to win a lot of games with; if the O\u2019s are a powerful offense which produces regularly.
The rotation and bullpen are not good enough, if the O\u2019s offense proves to be more middling vs. elite.<\/p>\n
Alonso is not going to slug .343 all year.
On the other-hand, Rutschman isn\u2019t going to post an OPS near 1.000 all season.<\/p>\n
Henderson has 37 ab\u2019s.
Basallo has 27, Mayo 20, O\u2019Neill 20, Cowser 17.<\/p>\n
My head says evaluating any of them based on their 2026 body of work is ludicrous; but I do have thoughts.<\/p>\n
Henderson\u2019s floor is All-Star, and his ceiling is MVP. For this offense to be great, I think he has to be closer to \u201924 Henderson vs. \u201925 Henderson.<\/p>\n
Basallo\u2019s homer the other day, bounced against the batter\u2019s eye past the CF wall at Camden Yards.
The power is prodigious, and clearly evident for anyone.
Give him enough ab\u2019s, he\u2019s going to run into a number of homers.
He\u2019s got 11 k\u2019s in his 27 ab\u2019s, and he\u2019s yet to double.
He\u2019s staring at a .167 batting average in 132 ML career ab\u2019s right now.
It\u2019s natural power, he doesn\u2019t have to try and hit the Warehouse with every swing.
He\u2019s going to have to show an ability to find more green.<\/p>\n
We talked about Mayo\u2019s defense above.
I\u2019ve said for years his future with the O\u2019s was 1st or DH.
With Westburg starting on the IL, I was comfortable with him getting starts at 3rd, and figuring there would be defensive replacements in close and late.
I said I wasn\u2019t going to regularly comment on his defense, and just hoped he would prove to not be a butcher.
Opening Day, he made a couple of good plays.
Yesterday was more of what you\u2019d expect.\u00a0 Missed a double play because of a bobble.\u00a0 Missed another play which could have been called an error.
It\u2019s not fair to kill him repeatedly for not being the glove you need \/ want at 3rd.\u00a0 He\u2019s standing there, he\u2019s trying his best, and by all accounts he works hard. It\u2019s not just his skillset.
That said, if he\u2019s going to stand there for these first two months while Westburg is out (and potentially longer if Westburg can not return); then has to hit.
Like Basallo, Mayo has plus power.
Mayo continues to look very stiff to me, and I think he struggles to cover the plate.
It\u2019s probably not practical to be working on now, but I think he\u2019d benefit by doing regular flexibility training.
That aside, he should be looking to drive the ball opposite field with pitches on the outer-half. He looks to me like he fixates on pulling everything, which I don\u2019t understand with his existing power.<\/p>\n
O\u2019Neill\u2019s track record says he can\u2019t stay healthy.
It also says if this is a season where he can give you 110 games, and 400 ab\u2019s; that he\u2019ll provide some power.
One of the ways this lineup can prove to have some depth, is if he\u2019s giving the O\u2019s some punch.
He used to be a quality fielder. He\u2019s not now.
If he doesn\u2019t hit, he can\u2019t play.<\/p>\n
Cowser is a quality LF, and an average ish CF.
The .627 OPS in 17 ab\u2019s means nothing, but his struggles against anything off-speed means something.
Adam Jones struggled against a slider his whole O\u2019s career. Numerous bad looks on 2 strike counts.
But Jones adjusted his approach, and made opposing pitchers pay earlier in ab\u2019s. He seemed to hunt for fastballs.
Cowser should be the same.\u00a0 Jones had a .771 OPS for his career. Numbers very consistent throughout his prime.
It\u2019s concerning that after 904 career ab\u2019s (702 career OPS), we\u2019re not sure if Cowser is a lineup fixture or someone that will need to be replaced.
I do expect Cowser\u2019s \u201926 to more closely resemble his \u201924 season vs. his \u201925 season.\u00a0 17 ab\u2019s hasn\u2019t changed my feelings there.<\/p>\n
Is It Getting Late Early?<\/p>\n
The O\u2019s are 3-6, and have lost back-to-back series after being swept by the Pirates in Pittsburgh.<\/p>\n
It has not been a good product so far, and the Orioles have already managed to fall 4.5 games back of the New York Yankees in the AL East.<\/p>\n
Typically I think most of us would understand that with 156 games (or 95% of the season) left to be played; that it would be extremely hyperbolic to overreact to these initial 9 games.<\/p>\n
Typically.<\/p>\n
That said, even for an O\u2019s optimist like myself, the play has raised some alarms.<\/p>\n
Since the second half of \u201924, the team has played under some general malaise, and there is some worry that we\u2019re seeing that continue here as this \u201926 season begins.<\/p>\n
How much of that is real?<\/p>\n
The Manager and Coaching staff have changed.<\/p>\n
Numerous players on the current \u201926 roster were not part of the \u201925 roster.<\/p>\n
This is a different group, even if they\u2019re wearing the same uniform.<\/p>\n
Whatever opinion you had about this group entering the season, shouldn\u2019t be particularly different now after 9 games.<\/p>\n
Still, these early games still matter.<\/p>\n
You can\u2019t win the Division in April, but you can dig a hole that can be tough to dig out of.<\/p>\n
The O\u2019s are in the AL East.\u00a0 Most prognosticators and Power Rankings had the O\u2019s entering this \u201926 season as the 10th to 14th best team in the game, but only the fourth best team in the East (NY, Toronto, Boston).<\/p>\n
Those teams are all projected to win somewhere between 88-95 games.<\/p>\n
The O\u2019s can not afford to get buried early.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve talked about my goal for the O\u2019s being to win the East, and to not be reliant on a Wild Card.
Wanting the O\u2019s to earn their way back to the post-season, and hope they have success with limited sample sizes once there.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s months and months away, and to far of a goal.<\/p>\n
You don\u2019t get to win 90 games just because you have the talent to do so.
You don\u2019t get to be a Wild Card, or a Division Winner, without producing.
You don\u2019t get to hope the Baseball Gods shine favorably on you in October, without first earning your way there.<\/p>\n
The focus should be 1 game, and 1 series at a time.
You\u2019ve lost two series back-to-back.
Rebound with a series win in Chicago vs. the White Sox, and then follow that up with a series win at home vs. the Giants.<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t do that, and the O\u2019s risk putting themselves in a difficult predicament before Tax Day arrives.\t\t\t<\/p>\n
![\"Chris](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Chris-Self.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\nChris Stoner\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
Owner<\/p>\n
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Evaluating baseball teams early in the season is always suspect work. Sample size becomes an annual discussion.\u00a0 Clearly…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":665385,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2374],"tags":[143,47,2538,5,4,125],"class_list":{"0":"post-665384","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-baltimore-orioles","8":"tag-baltimore","9":"tag-baltimore-orioles","10":"tag-baltimoreorioles","11":"tag-baseball","12":"tag-mlb","13":"tag-orioles"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116354562363792429","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/665384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=665384"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/665384\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/665385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=665384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=665384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=665384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}