the fourth-most valuable pitching staff<\/a> here in the early going, though, and that\u2019s going to be the thing that carries them. According to FanGraphs, they\u2019ve been the most valuable pitching staff since 2022, amassing +94.5 fWAR compared to the rest of the sport. The Dodgers are #2 at +80.4 fWAR, so, it\u2019s a big gap.<\/p>\nThe Giants are still trying to get things going on offense, but they\u2019ll need their pitching to hold the line until then. That necessity seems like a stretch, though, as their value is middle of the pack (+0.8 fWAR – 15th in MLB) with some troubling peripherals. Their 93.9 mph average fastball velocity is 27th in MLB and their home run to fly ball rate of 13.5% is 24th. They\u2019re also 15th in K\/9 (9.1). The Giants will either need to get more groundballs or more swing and miss because a home run rate like that in Oracle Park is catastrophic.<\/p>\n
And, of course, they\u2019re tired for the fewest runs scored in the sport (26 \u2014 tied with the Reds). Their team value of -0.4 fWAR is ahead of only the Rockies (-0.8). The ABS Challenge system is supposed to increase walk rates and yet the Giants\u2019 7.4% is 29th, ahead of only the Rockies. Their 23.5% strikeout rate is 17th. That strikeout rate is right in line with the team\u2019s performance from 2022-2025. What\u2019s different is the walk rate. The Giants have an 8.9% walk rate across 2022-2025, which is 6th in MLB. Right now, the Phillies are striking out 10.87 per 9 innings (4th in MLB) and walking just 2.52 (also 4th). So, it\u2019s going to be a tough matchup, unless the hitters break out or the Phils\u2019 pitching has a bad series.<\/p>\n
Who: San Francisco Giants (3-7) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (5-4)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, CA
When: Monday & Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: None.<\/p>\n
Projected starters
Monday: Andrew Painter (RHP 1-0, 1.69) vs. Adrian Houser (RHP 0-1, 1.69 ERA)
Tuesday: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP 1-0, 0.79 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 1-1, 3.38 ERA)
Wednesday: Aaron Nola (RHP 1-0, 3.18 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP 0-2, 7.00 ERA)<\/p>\n
Andrew Painter: The Phillies\u2019 top pitching prospect was set to make his debut for them two years ago, but injuries pushed it all the way back to last week, when he struck out 8 in 5.1 innings against the Nationals. I suppose the opponent matters a great deal. The 23-year old threw six different pitches at them: a 96.7 mph four-seamer, a slider, curve, changeup, sinker, and sweeper.<\/p>\n
Kyle Schwarber: Look, this is pretty obvious, and you don\u2019t need me telling you to keep an eye on him, but just to reiterate: in 22 career games at Oracle, he\u2019s hitting .244\/.347\/.561 with 7 home runs.<\/p>\n
Bryson Stott: The second baseman didn\u2019t develop into the hitting-defense force the Phillies had hoped, but he\u2019s still been a valuable player with the glove. In 11 games at Oracle Park against the Giants, though, he\u2019s hit! He has a triple slash of .300\/.347\/.475 in 45 plate appearances. That includes a couple of homers.<\/p>\n
Rafael Devers: He has a career .805 OPS in April (831 PA), so, I expect him to get it going any day now. The Giants need him as a threat if the lineup is to have any hope.<\/p>\n
Tyler Mahle: Mahle is one of the arms fueling the staff\u2019s high HR\/FB ratio because he\u2019s a flyball pitcher. Thankfully? the Phillies\u2019 lineup is in the bottom third of the sport in terms of flyball rate. He hasn\u2019t faced the Phillies since 2021 when he was with the Reds (7 shutout innings, 7 strikeouts, 0 walks) \u2014 a completely different pitcher then.<\/p>\n
Harrison Bader: He popped in his stint with the Phillies last season (.824 OPS in 50 games) following a trade from the Twins. Not that he has their secrets, but it will be worth watching him to see if he\u2019s interested in revenge or showing them that they should regret declining his option.<\/p>\n
He had his first ejection on Sunday over a correct call by the umpire (Jerar Encarnacion was called out for interference running down the first base line). We haven\u2019t seen him get really creative with the roster or substitutions, but let\u2019s see if he, like, forfeits the designated hitter to gain an advantage late in a game. I would hope things get weird in the event the Giants lose the first two games of this series.<\/p>\n
The Phillies are coming off a trip to Coors Field while the Giants are coming off an absolute pasting by the New York Mets in Oracle Park. In theory, the Phillies\u2019 comedown from playing a Mile High might be enough of an equalizer to give the Giants a great shot at a series win. On the other hand, the Giants are just 1-6 at home. That\u2019s a pretty formidable pitching matchup and the Giants\u2019 offense needs a couple of weeks of \u201cgood\u201d (or at least \u201cgood enough\u201d) to warrant any optimism. It\u2019s difficult to envision the Giants winning this series, but they\u2019ll win a game, sure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It seems like it\u2019s been three consecutive years now where the Phillies\u2019 season has ended in disappointment and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":666950,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2408],"tags":[5,162,4,378,66,82671,4343,4340,4344,4341,4342],"class_list":{"0":"post-666949","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-san-francisco-giants","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-giants","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-san-francisco","12":"tag-san-francisco-giants","13":"tag-san-francisco-giants-game-information","14":"tag-sanfrancisco","15":"tag-sanfranciscogiants","16":"tag-sf","17":"tag-sf-giants","18":"tag-sfgiants"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116359417557984685","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/666949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=666949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/666949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/666950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=666949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=666949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=666949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}