{"id":667420,"date":"2026-04-07T01:50:29","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T01:50:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/667420\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T01:50:29","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T01:50:29","slug":"2011-red-sox-seen-in-this-years-rocky-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/667420\/","title":{"rendered":"2011 Red Sox seen in this year\u2019s rocky start"},"content":{"rendered":"

Papelbon, of course, was referring to the 2011 campaign<\/a> \u2014 his last as a member of the Red Sox \u2014 when a team on pace for 100 wins through August collapsed, going 7-20 in September to get bounced from the playoff race on the season\u2019s last day.<\/p>\n

But that meltdown proved crushing precisely because it had a complementary bookend. The 2011 Sox started the year with six straight losses and were 2-7 through nine games \u2014 just enough, in tandem with the woeful September, to keep them out of the postseason.<\/p>\n

In the wreckage of 2011, Papelbon and his teammates lamented their dreadful start. He wonders if this year\u2019s Sox will do the same.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt was huge. There was so much talk about how all we [had needed] was a decent April [so] we wouldn\u2019t [have been] in this situation,\u201d said Papel\u00adbon, now a NESN analyst. \u201cThe great Tim Wakefield would say you break up [the season] \u00adinto games by tens and try to win at least six of [every 10]. But you\u2019ve put yourself behind the eight-ball so much, you\u2019re having to win seven out of 10. And Pedro Mart\u00ednez says April is a time where you really set yourself up for failure or success.<\/p>\n

\u201c[The 2026 Red Sox are] going to have to go on some great runs in order to turn this thing around. And I just don\u2019t know if they have the pitching to turn this around,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n

\u201cI just don\u2019t see the intensity. I don\u2019t see the wherewithal of what\u2019s going on, and I don\u2019t see it turning it around. I just don\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n

With 153 games remaining<\/a> entering Monday\u2019s contest against the Brewers, it seems early for such a dire assessment. Still, it\u2019s fair to ask: How damaging is a grim start to playoff hopes?<\/p>\n

Less than two weeks into the season, the Sox\u2019 postseason odds \u2014 in the calculations of FanGraphs \u2014 nosedived from 61.2 percent to 44.7 percent.<\/p>\n

A bad start isn\u2019t the template for a playoff aspirant. In the World Series era (starting in 1903), the Red Sox are the 264th team to lose at least seven of their first nine games. Of the first 263, just 14 (5.3 percent) reached the postseason. No team since the 1991 Twins overcame such poor play through nine games to win a title.<\/p>\n

In all 11 prior instances when the Sox started 2-7 or worse, they missed the playoffs. Most famously, the 2011 team fell short by one game. While the chief culprit of their organizational implosion was the chicken-and-beer-fueled September collapse, a better start would have been insulation.<\/p>\n

However, that same year offers a glimmer of hope. The 2011 Rays \u2014 who knocked that ignominious Sox squad out of the playoffs in Game 162 \u2014 rode elite pitching to overcome a 1-8 start, finishing 91-71 with a wild-card berth.<\/p>\n

Though that Rays team represents an exception as a playoff team that overcame an awful start, it\u2019s easy to exaggerate the meaning of a season-opening 2-7 spell. Almost all teams experience such a slump. It just comes with the perceived weight of an anvil at the start of the season.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt feels like we\u2019ve been playing for a month,\u201d sighed shortstop Trevor Story.<\/p>\n

Yet baseball seasons don\u2019t follow a set pattern. A 2-7 stretch in April is no different than one in July or September, save for the fact that its significance tends to be magnified.<\/p>\n

Last year, the Brewers lost their first four games \u2014 \u201cPutrid in every aspect,\u201d recalled Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy \u2014 and subsequently had a 2-7 stagger in May that made them look like potential deadline sellers. Instead, they caught a wave and finished with an MLB-high 97 wins.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it\u2019s less than a month .\u00a0.\u00a0. I think it\u2019s a small sample size,\u201d said Murphy. \u201cWe\u2019re so close, all of us, in who can beat [whom] at any given time .\u00a0.\u00a0. There\u2019s so many ways that the game can get turned around. I just think any time you emphasize that stuff, you\u2019re missing it. You\u2019re probably going to be wrong to emphasize that the start indicates too much.\u201d<\/p>\n

Also noteworthy: The expanded 12-team playoff field has made things more forgiving. Over the last two seasons, 23 of the 24 teams that reached the playoffs had at least one 2-7 stretch.<\/p>\n

Perhaps more immediately relevant to the Sox: Since the introduction of the third Wild Card in 2022, eight of 48 playoff teams (17 percent) lost at least six of their first nine games, a jump from the 6 percent of teams that overcame such starts when there were just two wild cards from 2011-21.<\/p>\n

Still, that caveat doesn\u2019t diminish the urgency for this year\u2019s club to show that its awful start represents an aberration and not a harbinger. <\/p>\n

\u201c[Games] count just as much [in April] as they do in September,\u201d said Papelbon.<\/p>\n

Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com<\/a>. Follow him @alexspeier<\/a>.<\/p>\n