{"id":668585,"date":"2026-04-07T15:23:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T15:23:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/668585\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T15:23:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T15:23:20","slug":"why-odds-favor-new-york-with-freddy-peralta-on-mound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/668585\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Odds Favor New York With Freddy Peralta on Mound"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"inline-text-0\" class=\"mt-[18px] md:mt-0 mb-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7b\">After a slow start to the 2026 season, the New York Mets have won three games in a row heading into their series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday, April 7.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-1\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7e\">Mets ace Freddy Peralta (4.35 ERA) will make his third start of the season against former All-Star Zac Gallen, who is looking to rebound after a down year in 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-2\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7h\">New York has dealt with the injury bug early on this season, losing star outfielder Juan Soto to a calf injury on Friday. Soto was placed on the injured list, knocking him out for the entire series with the D-Backs.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-3\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7k\">Oddsmakers have set the Mets as clear favorites at home in this game, even though Peralta wasn\u2019t incredibly sharp in his first outing of the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates. So, should bettors target New York in this series opener?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.minutemediacdn.com\/platform\/google_discover_icon.svg\" class=\"shrink-0\"\/>Add us as a preferred source on Google<a aria-label=\"Follow si.com on Google News\" href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/preferences\/source?q=si.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" class=\"flex h-[30px] w-[30px] shrink-0 items-center justify-center rounded-full bg-primary font-group-large text-sm font-medium text-white transition-colors hover:bg-secondary focus:bg-secondary md:w-auto md:gap-2.5 md:px-4 md:py-[5px]\">Follow<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-4\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7q\">Here\u2019s a breakdown of the odds, the pitching matchup, my favorite prop bet and a more for Tuesday\u2019s contest.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-6\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7w\"><a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/4kJjtBu\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-7\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7z\">Run Line\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Diamondbacks +1.5 (-168)Mets -1.5 (+139)<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-9\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"85\">Moneyline<\/p>\n<p>Diamondbacks: +135Mets: -163<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-11\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"8b\">Total<\/p>\n<p>Diamondbacks vs. Mets Probable PitchersArizona: Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.60 ERA)New York:\u00a0 Freddy Peralta (1-0, 4.35 ERA)Diamondbacks vs. Mets How to WatchDate: Tuesday, April 7Time: 4:10 p.m. ESTVenue: Citi FieldHow to Watch (TV): SNY\/DBacks.TVDiamondbacks record: 5-5Mets record: 6-3Diamondbacks vs. Mets Best MLB Prop BetMets Best MLB Prop BetFreddy Peralta 6+ Strikeouts (-138)<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-20\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"92\">Even though he\u2019s thrown just 10.1 innings through two starts this season, Freddy Peralta has seven strikeouts in each of those games.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-21\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"95\">On Tuesday, the Mets ace has a tough matchup against an Arizona team that leads MLB in strikeouts per game (6.9) so far in the 2026 season. Still, I think Peralta is worth a look in this market with his prop down at 5.5.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-22\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"98\">Statcast ranks Peralta in the 84th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 81st percentile in whiff percentage in the 2026 season. Not only that, but he struck out 204 batters in 176.2 innings last season and averages over 11 K\u2019s per nine innings in his career.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-23\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9b\">I\u2019ll buy Peralta at a discounted price, even though the D-Backs have been a tough team to strike out this season.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Diamondbacks vs. Mets Prediction and Pick<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-25\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9h\">Both of these pitchers have been All-Stars in their careers, and Peralta didn\u2019t have a great first outing in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-26\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9k\">So, why are the Mets favored in this matchup?<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-27\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9n\">Well, New York is ninth in MLB in OPS so far this season (Arizona is 23rd), and it turned things around in a weekend series with the lowly San Francisco Giants.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-28\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9q\">Peralta\u2019s first outing was shaky, but he then followed it up with 5.1 innings of three-hit, one-run ball against St. Louis.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-29\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9t\">The Mets ace has a sub-4.00 ERA in six straight seasons, including a 2.70 ERA in 33 starts in 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-30\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9w\">Gallen, on the other hand, has struggled since finishing third in the Cy Young voting in 2023. The righty has a 4.29 ERA in 63 starts since then, including a down 2025 season where he posted a 4.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-31\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9z\">Since the New York offense has been better than Arizona\u2019s to start the season, I feel comfortable laying this price with Peralta on the mound.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-32\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"a2\">Pick: Mets Moneyline <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/4kJjtBu\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\" target=\"_blank\">(-163 at DraftKings)<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-34\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"a7\">Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-35\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"aa\">If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-36\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"ad\">Claim the latest\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/betting\/sportsbook-promos\/draftkings-promo-code\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">DraftKings promo code<\/a>\u00a0offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/4kJjtBu\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">$200 in bonus bets instantly.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After a slow start to the 2026 season, the New York Mets have won three games in a&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":668586,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2404],"tags":[146,22,4314,5,38,4],"class_list":{"0":"post-668585","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-arizona-diamondbacks","8":"tag-arizona","9":"tag-arizona-diamondbacks","10":"tag-arizonadiamondbacks","11":"tag-baseball","12":"tag-diamondbacks","13":"tag-mlb"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116364117351970419","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/668585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=668585"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/668585\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/668586"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=668585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=668585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=668585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}