{"id":668706,"date":"2026-04-07T16:39:37","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T16:39:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/668706\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T16:39:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T16:39:37","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-tuesday-will-gausman-stay-hot-and-stifle-the-dodgers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/668706\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Tuesday: Will Gausman stay hot and stifle the Dodgers?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyApr 7, 2026, 09:51 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Tuesday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Bryce Harper<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+630)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.20 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to right at 16.8 mph in this contest, the second-most favorable of the day for batters.<\/p>\n

Matt McLain<\/a> | OVER 0.5 RBI (+288)
Projection: 30% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.94 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past 14 days, McLain has posted a 24.8-degree launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.<\/p>\n

Will Benson<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.28 EV
One reason to bet this: Benson has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits of late, hitting balls between -4 and 26 degrees just 12.5% of the time over the past seven days.<\/p>\n

Tuesday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Jacob Misiorowski<\/a> | UNDER 6.5 K (+120)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.51 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 2 venue in the league for suppressing strikeouts, according to my projections, is Fenway Park.<\/p>\n

Taj Bradley<\/a> | UNDER 5.5 K (+126)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.54 EV
One reason to bet this: A hitters’ umpire (Quinn Wolcott) is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.<\/p>\n

Kevin Gausman<\/a> | OVER 6.5 K (+112)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.50 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last start, Gausman performed well and accumulated 10 strikeouts.<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Noah Cameron<\/p>\n

-102<\/p>\n

46.6<\/p>\n

-6.60<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-164<\/p>\n

-5.68<\/p>\n

6.5<\/p>\n

O -125<\/p>\n

7.25<\/p>\n

0.04<\/p>\n

Gavin Williams<\/p>\n

-118<\/p>\n

53.4<\/p>\n

-2.38<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+125<\/p>\n

-6.83<\/p>\n

U +104<\/p>\n

-9.38<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Andrew Abbott<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

48.6<\/p>\n

6.70<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

2.47<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -122<\/p>\n

8.72<\/p>\n

12.73<\/p>\n

Sandy Alcantara<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

51.4<\/p>\n

-12.86<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+105<\/p>\n

-16.05<\/p>\n

U +102<\/p>\n

-23.14<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Javier Assad<\/p>\n

+113<\/p>\n

47.1<\/p>\n

0.73<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-135<\/p>\n

0.28<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

8.54<\/p>\n

1.12<\/p>\n

Drew Rasmussen<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

52.9<\/p>\n

-8.53<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

-13.52<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-10.29<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nick Pivetta<\/p>\n

+128<\/p>\n

49.9<\/p>\n

15.89<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-122<\/p>\n

14.78<\/p>\n

6.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

6.69<\/p>\n

-1.39<\/p>\n

Paul Skenes<\/p>\n

-155<\/p>\n

50.1<\/p>\n

-19.11<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-106<\/p>\n

-28.25<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-7.63<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Matthew Liberatore<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

51.5<\/p>\n

2.25<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+120<\/p>\n

-1.81<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -110<\/p>\n

7.25<\/p>\n

-18.41<\/p>\n

Cade Cavalli<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

48.5<\/p>\n

-10.95<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-157<\/p>\n

-9.36<\/p>\n

U -110<\/p>\n

9.31<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jacob Misiorowski<\/p>\n

+129<\/p>\n

38.4<\/p>\n

-11.95<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-122<\/p>\n

-11.25<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O +100<\/p>\n

6.89<\/p>\n

-7.32<\/p>\n

Garrett Crochet<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

61.6<\/p>\n

1.01<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-106<\/p>\n

-0.44<\/p>\n

U -120<\/p>\n

-1.62<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aaron Civale<\/p>\n

+179<\/p>\n

33.2<\/p>\n

-9.41<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-9.82<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -103<\/p>\n

8.71<\/p>\n

-8.35<\/p>\n

Cam Schlittler<\/p>\n

-219<\/p>\n

66.8<\/p>\n

-1.63<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

1.62<\/p>\n

U -117<\/p>\n

-0.77<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/p>\n

-163<\/p>\n

59.1<\/p>\n

-3.13<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-129<\/p>\n

-5.70<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

7.78<\/p>\n

-12.86<\/p>\n

Kevin Gausman<\/p>\n

+135<\/p>\n

40.9<\/p>\n

-6.09<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-101<\/p>\n

-6.70<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

4.62<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Zac Gallen<\/p>\n

+135<\/p>\n

45.4<\/p>\n

7.84<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-116<\/p>\n

6.88<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

6.99<\/p>\n

-12.15<\/p>\n

Freddy Peralta<\/p>\n

-163<\/p>\n

54.6<\/p>\n

-12.69<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

-19.36<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

3.50<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trevor Rogers<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

55.3<\/p>\n

-4.72<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

-7.05<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

7.89<\/p>\n

8.53<\/p>\n

Shane Smith<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

44.7<\/p>\n

-3.79<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-116<\/p>\n

-4.85<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

-16.49<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tarik Skubal<\/p>\n

-175<\/p>\n

60.4<\/p>\n

-3.15<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-135<\/p>\n

-5.39<\/p>\n

6.5<\/p>\n

O -120<\/p>\n

6.92<\/p>\n

-2.94<\/p>\n

Taj Bradley<\/p>\n

+144<\/p>\n

39.6<\/p>\n

-6.38<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+103<\/p>\n

-7.33<\/p>\n

U +100<\/p>\n

-5.88<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

George Kirby<\/p>\n

-122<\/p>\n

48.5<\/p>\n

-11.27<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+105<\/p>\n

-14.68<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

8.46<\/p>\n

4.56<\/p>\n

Nathan Eovaldi<\/p>\n

+102<\/p>\n

51.5<\/p>\n

3.50<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

1.31<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

-12.80<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Michael Burrows<\/p>\n

-186<\/p>\n

63.7<\/p>\n

-2.01<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-1.64<\/p>\n

10.5<\/p>\n

O -111<\/p>\n

12.36<\/p>\n

11.01<\/p>\n

Kyle Freeland<\/p>\n

+153<\/p>\n

36.3<\/p>\n

-8.24<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

-7.30<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-19.88<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reynaldo Lopez<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

54.9<\/p>\n

-6.15<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-8.13<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

9.45<\/p>\n

-3.08<\/p>\n

Yusei Kikuchi<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

45.2<\/p>\n

-1.95<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-4.15<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-5.85<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cristopher Sanchez<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

62.4<\/p>\n

4.24<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-123<\/p>\n

3.09<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

7.62<\/p>\n

-0.59<\/p>\n

Robbie Ray<\/p>\n

+129<\/p>\n

37.6<\/p>\n

-16.46<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-106<\/p>\n

-16.16<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-8.56<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyApr 7, 2026, 09:51 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":668707,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2288],"tags":[5,2328,2304,4,2305,2303],"class_list":{"0":"post-668706","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-postseason","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-major-league-baseball-playoffs","10":"tag-major-league-baseball-postseason","11":"tag-mlb","12":"tag-mlb-playoffs","13":"tag-mlb-postseason"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116364417549824735","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/668706","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=668706"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/668706\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/668707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=668706"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=668706"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=668706"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}