an American League Rookie of the Year finalist<\/a> in 2024, Cowser hasn\u2019t shown consistency at the plate. And while the first 11 games of a season are far too few to make declarative statements, the one surety is pitchers are attacking Cowser the same way \u2014 and finding success.<\/p>\n\u201cThe big thing, at least for me, is committing to the plan,\u201d Cowser said. \u201cIt feels like every at-bat I could be in a 3-2 count if I really wanted to. I think sometimes, when I get outside of my plan, that\u2019s when chase ends up happening. You\u2019ll see at-bats when I take the really good ones and swing at them the next at-bat because I\u2019m not really committed to the plan.\u201d<\/p>\n
The plan, generally, is to lay off the deceptive pitches that can dive out of the strike zone late in their path to the plate. That\u2019s easier written than done.<\/p>\n
For Cowser and just about every other hitter, the approach with fewer than two strikes is to target a part of the zone. If a pitch arrives in that area, a batter then can unload their \u201cA\u201d swing, as they like to call it. In two-strike counts, the target opens and batters must defend the strike zone.<\/p>\n
This season, 41.1% of the pitches Cowser has faced have been off-speed \u2014 either a changeup or a splitter \u2014 which is the highest percentage in baseball, according to Statcast. And since 2024, Cowser\u2019s first full season, the 815 off-speed pitches he has seen as of Tuesday morning are the 23rd-most in baseball.<\/p>\n
Pitchers and hitters play games of cat and mouse. Right now, Cowser said, he\u2019s seeing more changeups because he\u2019s not producing against them. \u201cYou start hitting them,\u201d Cowser said, and \u201cit\u2019s going to start to shift back the other way.\u201d<\/p>\n
But hitting the changeup isn\u2019t the priority. It may matter more to lay off those offerings in order to face in-zone pitches with less late movement.<\/p>\n
Cowser\u2019s results in two plate appearances Tuesday won\u2019t be to his liking. He struck out and he grounded out. But in both at-bats, he laid off changeups below the zone (although later in his second at-bat, he chased a low changeup with two strikes and dribbled the ball to the pitcher).<\/p>\n
That, at least, was a sign of Cowser following his plan.<\/p>\n
\u201cI want Colton Cowser to be Colton Cowser,\u201d manager Craig Albernaz said. When Albernaz describes Cowser at his best, he envisions a version with strong plate discipline.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe doesn\u2019t have to try to be better than Colton Cowser,\u201d Albernaz said. \u201cIt\u2019s a results business, and players hang on results, but when you are chasing those results, that\u2019s when you kind of come out of your plan. For him, his best at-bats are when he\u2019s literally just sticking to his plan and trying to get to first base. <\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s when good things happen. You work the count. You lay off pitches out of the strike zone, and now you\u2019re in a position to hammer pitches in the strike zone,\u201d Albernaz continued. \u201cI know it sounds very simple, but this game is hard. When Colton does that, that\u2019s the real Colton Cowser, and that\u2019s the impact player he can be.\u201d<\/p>\n
In 2024, when Cowser was one of the league\u2019s best rookies, he still struck out at an elevated clip (30.7%) but largely stayed within the strike zone. His chase rate was 25%, which ranked in the 74th percentile.<\/p>\n
Last year, Cowser chased outside of the zone at a 23.8% rate, but struck out 35.6% of the time. The dichotomy there is hard to wrap one\u2019s head around, but it mostly comes down to Cowser\u2019s whiff rate of 34.6% last year. And when those off-speed pitches drew swings, even if they were in the zone, Cowser whiffed 45.5% of the time.<\/p>\n
Cowser swung and missed against off-speed pitches 42.9% in 2024, but he did more damage against fastballs (.265 average in 2024 compared to a .246 average in 2025), which allowed his overall numbers to flourish. And in 2024, Cowser performed better against breaking balls (.260 average) compared to 2025 (.122). Both varieties of spin \u2014 breaking balls and off-speed pitches \u2014 are causing Cowser issues early in 2026.<\/p>\n
Judging Cowser on his first 26 plate appearances is too small of a sample. But there has been an increase in chase rate early this season (33.3%). <\/p>\n
Some of that is due to those off-speed pitches. Of the 30 outside the zone he saw before Tuesday\u2019s game, Cowser swung at 10 of them. He whiffed on five.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a game of adjustments, and continually trying to find ways to adjust and adapt is key to this game, and I think that\u2019s the key to longevity in this game,\u201d Cowser said.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s in the middle of an adjustment period right now. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s challenging,\u201d Cowser said. \u201cYou\u2019re not really supposed to hit them. That\u2019s the deal. All I can do right now is just continue the at-bats and hit the ball hard.\u201d<\/p>\n
And trust that better days are close ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"CHICAGO \u2014 The scouting report for a pitcher facing Colton Cowser is abundantly clear. Entering Tuesday, no hitter…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":670063,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2374],"tags":[143,39604,47,2538,5,1404,60,4,12212,23849,125,148],"class_list":{"0":"post-670062","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-baltimore-orioles","8":"tag-baltimore","9":"tag-baltimore-city","10":"tag-baltimore-orioles","11":"tag-baltimoreorioles","12":"tag-baseball","13":"tag-camden-yards","14":"tag-minnesota-twins","15":"tag-mlb","16":"tag-os","17":"tag-opacy","18":"tag-orioles","19":"tag-twins"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116368693246724436","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/670062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=670062"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/670062\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/670063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=670062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=670062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=670062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}