{"id":670064,"date":"2026-04-08T10:49:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T10:49:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/670064\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T10:49:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T10:49:04","slug":"way-too-early-2026-outfield-busts-and-booms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/670064\/","title":{"rendered":"Way Too Early 2026 Outfield Busts And Booms"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s 8-9 games into the season, that\u2019s almost 6%! High time we rue all the disastrous picks we made and crow about all the winners we nailed. Or rue the ones we missed as those trains leave the station.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, I kid. Kind of. Hey, I\u2019m human, and we spend draft season making calls on these guys, and then we get to see it play out for a week and change. I know full well it\u2019s an incredibly small sample size. It\u2019s arguably even less representative of other short stretches. The weather is mixed, and guys just haven\u2019t gotten into full form yet. But hey, some data points do stabilize early and give us info. So let\u2019s look at some really early outfield busts and breakouts and see if we can read much into any of them. Stats are through Saturday\u2019s games, so when one of the Busts has a 3 homer game on Monday please thank me in the comments for my Reverse Jinx!<\/p>\n<p>(Spoiler Alert, you can\u2026DS)<\/p>\n<p>Outfield Busts: What In The World Was I Thinking<\/p>\n<p><a data-autolink-id=\"5269\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/razzball.com\/player\/695578\/James+Wood\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">James Wood<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>.111, 1 HR, 0 SB<\/p>\n<p>I worried about this one a mile away and faded him for the most part\u2026.and then rostered him \u201ccheap\u201d in my biggest auction. He looked like a breakout star in the first half of 2025, then imploded with a 39% K% after the All Star break. And then kept whiffing in Spring Training. And I guess unsurprisingly, it still has not stopped, and he\u2019s struck out on 40% of his first 40 PA\u2019s in 2026 with a Whiff% of 39.7% (6th percentile)<\/p>\n<p>In the 20 times he has managed to make contact, 10 count as hard hits, but his EV is 90.3, down from 94.3 in 2025. But hey, 3 were barrels! It\u2019s obviously too early to pass judgment on the EV, but it\u2019s kind of discouraging given that in his Whifftastic 2nd half of 2025, he had a 95.4 EV on those rare times he got his bat on the ball.<\/p>\n<p>I would love to find something encouraging here, but I am not sure I can. His bat speed is still high, but it\u2019s down slightly from 76 to 75.5. You would like to think that\u2019s semi intentional as a way to improve his contact rate. So far, not so good.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Wood is still just 23.5 years old with all the skills we love. There\u2019s no action to take short of maybe benching him in a daily league until you leave a big game on your bench. But at some point, you have to wonder if the Nats send him down for a brief AAA stay to get him right.<\/p>\n<p>(Make that 2 homers for Wood\u2026.DS)<\/p>\n<p><a data-autolink-id=\"2108\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/razzball.com\/player\/667670\/Brent+Rooker\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Brent Rooker<\/a><\/p>\n<p>.133, 0 HR<\/p>\n<p>Athletics not named Shea Langeliers have pretty much all started slowly. I could include Tyler Soderstrom here as well, since he also has yet to homer and rocks just a .207 average. But let\u2019s go with Rooker here since he had a significantly higher draft cost.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Rooker hit 30 homers last season while sporting a career low 22.2% K% and projected as just about the best outfielder after the superstar tier that ended with Fernando Tatis Jr. in the top 20 overall picks. My model that I used for my OF ratings had him on par in value with Jackson Chourio. But whoa, he looks completely lost right now.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Rooker has a 42.4% K% with an ungodly high 50.8% Whiff%. He only has 5 hard hits in 16 batted ball events, three of which were barrels. His EV is just 87.8, ve. 90.7 last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m more confident here than I am with Wood, though I will admit I do not have a regular season data point that backs that up. I guess it\u2019s more that with Wood it\u2019s just an extension of a bad trend that started last July, while with Rooker, there\u2019s nothing worrisome beyond a tiny 33 PA sample size. He hit .340 in Spring Training with 5 homers and a 25% K%.<\/p>\n<p>(And Rooker homers twice Sunday, including a walk-off\u2026.the Reverse Jinx really works\u2026..DS)<\/p>\n<p><a data-autolink-id=\"6313\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/razzball.com\/player\/805300\/Jakob+Marsee\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Jakob Marsee<\/a><\/p>\n<p>.129, 0 HR, 1 steal<\/p>\n<p>I rostered Marsee a bunch, and not only because he led to great fantasy team names. \u201cMarsee Playground\u201d, \u201c30 Seconds to Marsee\u201d\u2026I could go into Brady Brunch Marsha offshoots, but I digress.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Marsee hit .292 with 5 homers and 14 steals in 234 PA\u2019s in 2025 and would hit leadoff for the Marlins this season. No one expected the .292 again this year, but I did think his projections in the .220\u2019s and .230\u2019s looked light. He\u2019s a speed guy with a 20.3% K% last year, which was consistent with his level in the minors. 10-15 homers, steals in the 30\u2019s, and in runs with a passable batting average sure looked in the cards. And frankly, I think that\u2019s all still in play.<\/p>\n<p>He has a 31.4% K% that\u2019s totally out of whack with his 15.5% Whiff% and 5.2% SwStr%, which are both near elite. Typically, K% is about double SwStr%. The discrepancy is, of course, that he\u2019s watching a lot of strikes go by (22.5% CStr%), but that\u2019s not something he did that much of in either MLB (18.8% last year) or in the minors (typically mid-teens). His Contact% is elite at 86%, and his LA Sweet Spot% of 38.1% is 70th percentile, so it\u2019s pretty good contact.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>No one drafted Marsee for power, and you are getting zero right now as he\u2019s yet to barrel a ball. But I do think the average will bounce back, and ergo his other counting stats.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Outfield Booms and What Did I Miss<\/p>\n<p><a data-autolink-id=\"1845\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/razzball.com\/player\/664728\/Kyle+Isbel\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Kyle Isbel<\/a><\/p>\n<p>.478, 2 HR, 3 Steals<\/p>\n<p>OK, I did not actually miss Isbel. I literally wrote to not roster him in any format when I looked at the Royals OF competition. Yes, he\u2019s a nice real life player as he has an excellent glove in Center. But no, he had no value for our game. He had 4 homers and 4 steals last year in 409 PA\u2019s. He has a .242 career avg and 81 wRC+ and has never had more than 42 RBI\u2019s or 62 runs in a season, both of which he did in 2024 when he also exploded for career highs with 8 homers and 11 steals.<\/p>\n<p>But now? I suppose he\u2019s worth a flyer in deep leagues. He\u2019s clearly going for power early on and sacrificing contact. His Whiff% has jumped from 18.2% to 25.6%, but so far the tradeoff has worked as his EV has popped from 87.8 to 91.5. Can he somehow make this work and morph into maybe a 15-15 guy without tanking his Avg? Who knows, of course, pitchers will probably adapt their approach. We will see.<\/p>\n<p><a data-autolink-id=\"4194\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/razzball.com\/player\/686894\/Joey+Wiemer\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Joey Wiemer<\/a><\/p>\n<p>.558, 2 HR, 7 runs<\/p>\n<p>Wiemer redefined the word journeyman as he bounced around 40 man rosters all offseason after drifting through back end of MLB rosters in Milwaukee, Cincy, and KC the last two regular seasons. He\u2019s found a home for now in DC, though even they don\u2019t seem sure what to make of this, as he does not get every day run.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s really not anything to compare this to in regular season stats, as he had just 89 nondescript PA\u2019s in the bigs since 2023. But he was a semi interesting prospect not all that long ago who had 13 homers and 11 steals in 410 PA\u2019s with the Brewers in 2023. That came with a 28% K% and a .204 average, unfortunately.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s just 27 PA\u2019s so far, but take a gander at his bright red Statcast page.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-4218842\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screen-Shot-2026-04-05-at-1.58.01-PM-300x253.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"253\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>Like Isbel, take a deep league shot if you can to see if it\u2019s at all real.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a data-autolink-id=\"2221\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/razzball.com\/player\/669003\/Garrett+Mitchell\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Garrett Mitchell<\/a><\/p>\n<p>.318, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 3 Steals<\/p>\n<p>OK, no caveats on this one, roster in all but shallow formats. He\u2019s a strong side platoon bat, and he won\u2019t average over an RBI per game obviously, but he\u2019s a legit interesting power-speed source in the middle of an excellent lineup. He has just never stayed on the field, as he\u2019s racked up just 469 MLB PA\u2019s since his 2022 debut. Fwiw, he has a 117 wRC+ with a .257 avg, 14 homers, and 26 steals in what amounts to close to a full season for a platoon guy. Those numbers play!\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Is the Avg at serious risk? Maybe. So far in 2026, he\u2019s swinging for the downs with 75.7 bat speed (92nd percentile) that\u2019s producing 98.4 EV (100th percentile!). The downside is that his Whiff% is 44.7% (1st percentile) with a K% of 38.5%. So yeah, he could turn into James Wood with less power. But again, take a stab here if you can.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s 8-9 games into the season, that\u2019s almost 6%! High time we rue all the disastrous picks we&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":670065,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2290],"tags":[5,545,463,22740,565,2603,3402],"class_list":{"0":"post-670064","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-baseball","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-brent-rooker","10":"tag-garrett-mitchell","11":"tag-jakob-marsee","12":"tag-james-wood","13":"tag-joey-wiemer","14":"tag-kyle-isbel"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116368702569951263","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/670064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=670064"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/670064\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/670065"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=670064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=670064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=670064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}