{"id":670704,"date":"2026-04-08T18:15:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T18:15:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/670704\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T18:15:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T18:15:19","slug":"fernando-tatis-jr-s-brutal-early-trend-is-quietly-becoming-the-padres-biggest-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/670704\/","title":{"rendered":"Fernando Tatis Jr.\u2019s brutal early trend is quietly becoming the Padres\u2019 biggest problem"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"inline-text-0\" class=\"mt-[18px] md:mt-0 mb-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-darkGrey my-f-1\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"5l\">The San Diego Padres&#8217; 5-5 start to the season has, predictably, featured a lot of ups and downs from the veteran-laden roster A.J. Preller put together.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-1\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-darkGrey my-f-1\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"5o\">On the good side of things, Randy V\u00e1squez is pitching like an ace, leading all pitchers with 0.9 bWAR through two starts. Likewise, Manny Machado is on a heater to open the season, while Jackson Merrill is <a href=\"https:\/\/friarsonbase.com\/padres-much-needed-early-answer-just-came-from-a-familiar-place\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">finally starting to look like his rookie self<\/a> again.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-2\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-darkGrey my-f-1\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"5r\">Meanwhile, Walker Buehler looks lost on the mound while a huge chunk of the lineup is underperforming. In particular, Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts <a href=\"https:\/\/padresmission.com\/news-rumors\/san-diego-padres\/xander-bogaerts-early-season-struggles-come-from-a-shocking-lack-of-hitting-maturity-r3072\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">have been a mess<\/a>, contributing -0.1 fWAR each to the cause.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-3\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-darkGrey my-f-1\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"5u\">However, if there&#8217;s one player that needs to take on a brunt of the blame for the Friars&#8217; middling start, it&#8217;s Fernando Tatis Jr. The 27-year-old is the face of the franchise, but he&#8217;s currently leading all Padres hitters with 11 strikeouts. If the lineup is going to start scoring more runs on a frequent basis, they need their leadoff (or No. 2) hitter to start making a bigger impact.<\/p>\n<p>Fernando Tatis Jr.&#8217;s slow start is fueled by contact issues, but Padres should see a light at the end of the tunnel<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-5\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-darkGrey my-f-1\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"60\">Through the team&#8217;s first 10 games of the year, Tatis has struck out in 25% of his plate appearances and whiffed on more than 30% of his swings. Both figures are well below league average, which is a troubling trend for someone who has had serious swing-and-miss issues in the past.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-6\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-darkGrey my-f-1\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"63\">That being said, Tatis&#8217; overall numbers &#8212; he owns a .566 OPS and 70 wRC+ through 44 plate appearances &#8212; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/padres-offensive-struggles-continue-in-opener-of-first-road-trip\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">betray the underlying data<\/a>. Though he needs to make a lot more contact overall, he&#8217;s actually been quite prolific when landing the bat on the ball. His hard-hit rate sits at an off-the-charts 70.4%, and he remains above average in barrel rate, swing speed, and exit velocity.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-7\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-darkGrey my-f-1\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"66\">Combine all of that with a solid walk rate (13.6%) that&#8217;s boosted by by improved plate discipline (he&#8217;s chasing outside the zone less than in recent years), and it&#8217;s no wonder that the expected stats think he&#8217;s still performing <a href=\"https:\/\/friarsonbase.com\/fernando-tatis-jr-s-electric-wbc-showcase-is-giving-padres-fans-dangerous-ideas\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">like he&#8217;s in the World Baseball Classic<\/a>. His xwOBA is nearly 100 points higher (.363) than his actual mark (.267), suggesting that he&#8217;s been the victim of some brutal luck thus far in 2026. <\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-8\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-darkGrey my-f-1\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"69\">Of course, the best way to change luck is by covering for your biggest weaknesses, so Tatis would be wise to really hone in on his whiffing habits; it doesn&#8217;t matter how hard he hits the ball if he&#8217;s not hitting it all that often. But for those worried about his surface numbers, just know that nearly all of the data suggests the All-Star version of the right fielder should return to the fold any day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The San Diego Padres&#8217; 5-5 start to the season has, predictably, featured a lot of ups and downs&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":670705,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2407],"tags":[5,4,43,137,18,4339,4338],"class_list":{"0":"post-670704","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-san-diego-padres","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-mlb","10":"tag-padres","11":"tag-san-diego","12":"tag-san-diego-padres","13":"tag-sandiego","14":"tag-sandiegopadres"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116370455149816432","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/670704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=670704"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/670704\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/670705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=670704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=670704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=670704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}