Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today\u2019s baseball game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a different kind of pressure in games like this\u2014two teams that haven\u2019t separated themselves yet, trading blows in a series that\u2019s already produced a 9\u20136 Washington win and a 7\u20136 St. Louis extra-inning response. The St. Louis Cardinals sit at 5\u20136 trying to stabilize after an uneven opening stretch, while the Washington Nationals, now 4\u20137, are still searching for a way to convert offensive output into actual wins. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today\u2019s baseball game between the Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how I\u2019ll play it. I\u2019ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on\u00a0DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits<\/a> for more betting plays.<\/p>\n Michael McGreevy has been far more efficient than dominant, but that efficiency matters\u20142.53 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, just two walks in 10.2 innings, and a contact profile that has kept innings from spiraling. He\u2019s not overpowering (mid-4s xFIP range), but he\u2019s avoided free passes and limited multi-run innings. Miles Mikolas has been the opposite. Through two starts: 14.46 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 17 hits and five home runs allowed in just 9.1 innings. That\u2019s not just traffic\u2014that\u2019s damage. Washington as a staff mirrors it: 6.06 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 23 home runs allowed already. Even if you believe Mikolas\u2019 underlying pitch models (100+ Pitching+) suggest some regression, the current reality is that hitters are squaring him up consistently, and that creates a completely different run environment for St. Louis than McGreevy does for Washington.<\/p>\n The player layer reinforces that imbalance, even if Washington\u2019s bats have been the louder group on paper. CJ Abrams (.308\/.413\/.615, four homers, 14 RBI) and James Wood (four homers, three straight games with one) are real problems at the top, and Brady House (.317\/.378\/.537) and Luis Garc\u00eda Jr. (.297\/.514 SLG) give the Nationals a legitimate scoring core. But St. Louis is bringing a different kind of pressure\u2014more distributed, more situational. Jordan Walker has homered in back-to-back games and is running an OPS north of 1.000 in the early sample, Nolan Gorman just put up a three-hit game, and JJ Wetherholt and Thomas Saggese have both delivered extra-inning RBI hits in this series. Really, it\u2019s a battle of two lineups vying to see who can keep innings alive long enough to punish a starter who is already giving up impact contact.<\/p>\n Cardinals vs. Nationals<\/a> pick, best bet<\/p>\n Washington has done one thing surprisingly well this season: hit! This is a randy lineup. A .276\/.351\/.453 team slash with 16 home runs through 11 games is a legitimate offensive base, and McGreevy\u2019s underlying indicators\u20143.25 FIP, 4.29 xFIP, and a much higher expected ERA\u2014suggest he hasn\u2019t been nearly as dominant as his surface line implies. If that regression shows up today, Washington absolutely has the firepower to match St. Louis early, especially with Abrams and Wood both swinging well. And if this game turns into another back-and-forth scoring environment like the first two in the series, a side that depends on cleaner run prevention becomes more fragile.<\/p>\n But that\u2019s where the game separates over nine innings. Washington\u2019s offense has been good enough to win games\u2014it just hasn\u2019t been supported. The Nationals have lost six of seven not because they can\u2019t score, but because they can\u2019t stop the bleeding. The bullpen has carried over last year\u2019s issues (5.59 ERA in 2025), and that has already shown up again this week in late-game collapses. St. Louis, by contrast, has at least shown the ability to convert middle-inning pressure into late runs, and in a game where Mikolas is already allowing home-run-level damage, the Cardinals don\u2019t need perfect offense\u2014they need sustained traffic and one or two swings. That\u2019s a much more repeatable path against this pitching staff than asking Washington to suppress St. Louis for nine innings.<\/p>\n Best bet: Cardinals team total over 4.5 (+105).<\/p>\n