{"id":677551,"date":"2026-04-17T10:51:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T10:51:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/677551\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T10:51:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T10:51:35","slug":"red-sox-stock-watch-3-up-3-down-story-heating-up-but-is-ace-in-trouble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/677551\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox Stock Watch: 3 up, 3 down, Story heating up, but is ace in trouble?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>After a six-game road trip in which the Boston Red Sox went 3-3 against the St. Louis Cardinals and Minnesota Twins, it\u2019s only fitting to do a Stock Watch.<\/p>\n<p>Here are three players on the rise and three signs of potential trouble on the horizon for Boston. (All stats entering Thursday\u2019s off-day.)<\/p>\n<p>Three up<br \/>\nTrevor Story, SS<br \/>\nAfter an ice-cold start to the season in which he struck out 20 times, had zero multi-hit performances and didn\u2019t draw a walk in his first 13 games, Story appears to be heating up.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The veteran shortstop went 8 for 24 (.333) with two walks and five strikeouts on the road trip. All eight hits came in the last four games dating back to April 12, a span in which he was 8 for 16 (.500) with two doubles, a home run, two runs and eight RBI, had a four-hit performance (April 12) and a five-RBI game (April 15).<\/p>\n<p>Story returns to Fenway Park slashing .208\/.222\/.338 on the season. Though still markedly worse than his .265\/.329\/.490 career line entering this year, it\u2019s a clear improvement from the .151\/.145\/.245 he posted over the 12 games leading up to the road trip, and exactly what this inconsistent Red Sox offense needs.<\/p>\n<p>Ranger Suarez, LHP<\/p>\n<p>Su\u00e1rez entered free agency last fall as the owner of a 3.39 ERA over 116 regular-season starts since the Philadelphia Phillies made him a full-time starter in August 2021. His 1.48 postseason ERA ranks second among the 96 pitchers to reach 35 innings in their first 11 postseason games since ERA became an official metric in 1913. (Orel Hershiser has him beat by one point.)<\/p>\n<p>So when the Red Sox signed Su\u00e1rez to a five-year, $140 million contract in January, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonherald.com\/2026\/01\/22\/red-sox-ranger-suarez-phillies-mlb-free-agency-yankees-craig-breslow-scott-boras-trades-world-series-spring-training\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">chief baseball officer Craig Breslow confidently said<\/a>, \u201cI don\u2019t think there\u2019s a question anymore that the identity of our team, the strength of our team, is going to be our pitching.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But after missing several weeks of spring training for the World Baseball Classic, and barely pitching for Team Venezuela in the tournament, Su\u00e1rez struggled to begin the season. His first two starts, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonherald.com\/2026\/03\/30\/red-sox-ranger-suarez-johan-oviedo-mlb-houston-astros-lance-mccullers-jr-jose-altuve-yordan-alvarez-wilyer-abreu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">against the Houston Astros<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonherald.com\/2026\/04\/05\/red-sox-ranger-suarez-gold-glove-san-diego-padres-walker-buehler-wilyer-abreu-xander-bogaerts-mlb\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">San Diego Padres<\/a>, lasted 4.1 and 4 innings, respectively. Each time he allowed four earned runs on at least six hits.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps those games were simply extended spring training for the new Sox southpaw, because he was stellar in most recent start, in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonherald.com\/2026\/04\/11\/red-sox-ranger-suarez-st-louis-cardinals-leahy-lineup-roman-anthony-caleb-durbin-ceddanne-rafaela-willson-contreras-carlos-narvaez-alex-cora-mb\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis on April 11<\/a>: six scoreless innings, three hits, two walks and six strikeouts, all on a mere 84 pitches.<\/p>\n<p>Connelly Early, LHP<\/p>\n<p>Recently manager Alex Cora said rookie left-hander <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonherald.com\/2026\/03\/29\/red-sox-connelly-early-masataka-yoshida-cincinnati-reds-mlb\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Connelly Early<\/a> earned his rotation spot during spring training.<\/p>\n<p>Has he ever. Early has been the most consistent pitcher in the Red Sox rotation by far. He\u2019s pitched at least 4.1 innings and allowed just one earned run in three of his four starts; the exception was a four-inning, two-ER start against the Padres on April 4.<\/p>\n<p>Early\u2019s last start was exactly what the doctor ordered. After back-to-back messes by Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray, Early carved up the Twins for six innings of two-hit ball on Wednesday. The only damage was a solo home run.<\/p>\n<p>At least four innings and no more than two earned runs allowed may be a low bar to clear, but Early is the only Red Sox starter clearing it consistently. Crochet, Gray, Su\u00e1rez and Brayan Bello have combined for six such starts, and no more than two to a man.<\/p>\n<p>Three down<br \/>\nGarrett Crochet, LHP<\/p>\n<p>To call Crochet\u2019s last start stunning would be an understatement. In just 1.2 innings before Cora made a pitching change, Boston\u2019s ace yielded 11 runs, 10 of them earned, on nine hits, three walks and a hit-by-pitch. His strikeout total was zero.<\/p>\n<p>The most runs Crochet allowed in a start last season was seven, and that was over six innings (Sept. 2).<\/p>\n<p>Crochet isn\u2019t the only MLB starter to allow 10 or more earned runs in a start this season, but Washington\u2019s Mile Mikolas\u2019 shelling spanned 4.1 innings. The last major league starter to allow double-digit ER in a start of two innings or less was Texas\u2019 Mike Foltynewicz on July 18, 2021.<\/p>\n<p>But it\u2019s the most earned runs a Red Sox pitcher has allowed in an outing that short in franchise history.<\/p>\n<p>Though Crochet and Cora both maintained that the blowup wasn\u2019t due to any injury, the performance and the reduced velocity on his pitches are concerning.<\/p>\n<p>As is the past precedent. The previous franchise record belonged to Tanner Houck, who allowed 11 ER over 2.1 innings in Tampa on April 14 of last year. Houck repeated the feat on May 12, his final start before he landed on the injured list and underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery.<\/p>\n<p>Also notably odd, Crochet\u2019s four hit-by-pitches this season are tied for the most in MLB; last year he led the majors with 205.1 innings pitched, and only hit three batters.<\/p>\n<p>Sonny Gray, RHP<\/p>\n<p>After back-to-back strong starts against the Padres and Milwaukee Brewers, in which he yielded two earned runs on seven hits, walked two and struck out five over a combined 12.1 innings, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonherald.com\/2026\/04\/14\/red-sox-sonny-gray-mick-abel-minnesota-twins-jarren-duran-willson-contreras-back-injury-alex-cora-mlb\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Gray was powerless against the Twins<\/a> in his last outing on April 14. He allowed five earned runs on nine hits, including a pair of homers, walked one and struck out one.<\/p>\n<p>Gray isn\u2019t one to shy away from self-flagellation after a rough outing, but he sounded especially somber after this postgame. He told reporters, \u201cI just couldn\u2019t focus as well as I needed to. \u2026 I just didn\u2019t feel like myself.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI just didn\u2019t have it,\u201d Gray added. \u201cWhatever \u2018it\u2019 is, I just didn\u2019t have it. I kept trying to find it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Red Sox<\/p>\n<p>Just as a whole, the Red Sox belong in the down column. They entered their second homestand of the season with a 7-11 record. While that only puts them three and a half games out of first in the American League East, it\u2019s last place nonetheless, and they\u2019re tied for the second-most losses in Major League Baseball.<\/p>\n<p>The pitching staff\u2019s 4.55 ERA ranks fourth-worst in the AL, and only the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays have struck out fewer batters. Red Sox arms are worse than league-average in hits and runs allowed, including tied for fourth-most earned runs, and only the Houston Astros have given up more homers. The Red Sox have also hit 10 batters this season, tied for third-most in the AL.<\/p>\n<p>The Red Sox offense ranks sixth in the AL in on-base percentage (.322), fifth in batting average (.239), and fourth in hits (144), but just below league-average in runs scored. The last metric is skewed, too, by their three high-scoring wins on the road trip; 25 of their 77 runs this season were scored in those games.<\/p>\n<p>Red Sox batters are tied for the third-fewest walks (61) in the AL, and are worse than league average in strikeouts. Their speed on the base paths, a calling card last season, is missing too; they have seven stolen bases, tied for second-fewest in the AL. They\u2019ve also grounded into 17 double plays, one shy of Los Angeles Angels\u2019 AL-worst mark.<\/p>\n<p>Given the roster construction, it\u2019s not surprising that the lineup hasn\u2019t been hitting home runs, but they should have more power than what they\u2019ve shown thus far: their .355 slugging percentage is fourth-lowest in the AL, and their 12 home runs are last (29th overall in MLB).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After a six-game road trip in which the Boston Red Sox went 3-3 against the St. Louis Cardinals&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":677552,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2388],"tags":[5,48,36543,922,822,60,3190,4,90,1587,1035,148],"class_list":{"0":"post-677551","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-minnesota-twins","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-boston-red-sox","10":"tag-connelly-early","11":"tag-garrett-crochet","12":"tag-minnesota","13":"tag-minnesota-twins","14":"tag-minnesotatwins","15":"tag-mlb","16":"tag-ranger-suarez","17":"tag-sonny-gray","18":"tag-trevor-story","19":"tag-twins"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116419669782470201","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=677551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677551\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/677552"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=677551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=677551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=677551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}