{"id":677639,"date":"2026-04-17T13:22:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T13:22:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/677639\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T13:22:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T13:22:13","slug":"an-early-checkup-on-shane-baz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/677639\/","title":{"rendered":"An early checkup on Shane Baz"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s no lie to say that, even among a sea of flame-throwing MLB starters, Shane Baz\u2019s talent stands out. He brings a four-pitch mix (technically, five, but he\u2019s thrown the sinker exactly once this year, so I don\u2019t quite believe in it) featuring a four-seam fastball that averages, even post-Tommy John, 97 mph, 84th percentile in the league. This is the same pitch that Baseball America awarded the best-in-organization grade for three years<\/a> running in the Rays system, and his scouting reports long reflected that fact, plus the sheer talent.<\/p>\n

Drafted 12th overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017, Baz was packaged\u2014somewhat infamously\u2014as the PTBNL in the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to Tampa Bay for Chris Archer. It is widely considered one of the worst deals<\/a> in, at least, Pirates history. He was soon Tampa Bay\u2019s No. 1 prospect, striking out a ridiculous 113 hitters in 78.2 innings as a Rays farmhand. Seems that the nickname \u201cWizard of Baz,\u201d which has followed him since high school, was not unearned.<\/p>\n

At the MLB level, his numbers never hit those levels of hype. His 2021 debut lasted all of three games, and his 2022 season was also marred by injuries, including surgery with Dr. Keith Meister (who\u2019s also operated on Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin). Tommy John cost Baz all of 2023, an oblique injury derailed his 2024 return, and only in 2025 did Baz finally make a full season\u2019s worth of starts. The numbers weren\u2019t the gaudiest: he made 31 starts for Tampa Bay in 2025, registering a 10-12 record and 4.87 ERA with 176 strikeouts.<\/p>\n

His Statcast peripherals <\/a>were, though, and those totals were enough to send the Orioles scavenging through their farm system cupboard to fund the biggest pitching acquisition of the Mike Elias era. Baltimore sent four prospects\u2014outfielder Slater de Brun (their No. 6 prospect), catcher Caden Bodine (No. 10), right-hander Michael Forret (No. 11), and outfielder Austin Overn (No. 30)\u2014along with the 33rd overall pick in the 2026 draft to pry Baz away from a division rival. Toing the party line at the start of the seaseon, new Orioles manager Craig Albernaz declared that Shane Baz\u2019s upside is \u201cCy Young award winner,\u201d an enviable ceiling. The sides then finalized a five-year, $68 million extension just before Opening Day: the richest contract the Orioles have ever given to a pitcher.<\/p>\n

So far in 2026, the results have been mixed (which is an affectionate way of saying they\u2019ve been messy). Through his first four starts, Baz is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, with 19 strikeouts in 22 innings. He\u2019s failed to complete six innings in three of four outings. He has allowed at least three earned runs in three of four starts, and the one strong one\u20145.2 one-run innings against the Pirates\u2014has been bookended by clunkers against better teams.<\/p>\n

The peripheral numbers are more encouraging, although not without their own concerns. The hopeful signs are in is the significant gap between his actual results and his expected ones: his xwOBA of .318 is considerably better than his actual wOBA of .393, suggesting some bad luck on balls in play. His knuckle-curve is generating a 28% whiff rate in early usage, and his cutter is holding hitters to a .182 average . The velocity remains intact\u2014his spring training fastball maxed out at 98.6 mph. The strikeout upside is clearly still there.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Baz shows an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph (high for him) and a barrel rate of 9.8%, the latter sitting in an uncomfortable range. Opponents expected average of .252 is the highest of his career. His fastball run value of -4 is the lowest it\u2019s been.<\/p>\n

The recurring concern, as it has been throughout his career, is command: his four-seamer has been hit hard, surrendering four doubles among its first seven hits allowed. His offspeed stuff (changeup, cutter, the knuckle-curve) are all showing slightly reduced spin this season.<\/p>\n

How does this compare to Baz\u2019s best moments? His 2021 debut remains the benchmark, when his strikeout-to-walk ratio was exceptional and his stuff looked genuinely electric in a very small sample. Over 48 career starts since his return from Tommy John surgery, he has an 8.9 SO9 rate and a 3.3 walk rate, with a FIP of 4.23\u2014numbers that speak of a solid mid-rotation arm rather than an ace, though the underlying metrics hint at more.<\/p>\n

But his 2025 xERA of 3.88 and SIERA of 3.95 (skill-intensive ERA; it\u2019s a Fangraphs<\/a> thing) point to a pitcher whose ERA significantly overstates his struggles, particularly\u2014and I find this pretty important\u2014given the havoc wrought by Steinbrenner Field, the Rays\u2019 season-long Triple-A park last year while the Trop endured storm-related repairs.<\/p>\n

Baz\u2019s offspeed pitches seem to need some tuning up, but overall, the stuff does not appear degraded. What has fluctuated instead is his command and, in particular, his ability to suppress the home run ball against right-handed hitters. (I am told that, post-TJ, sometimes this happens.)<\/p>\n

Four starts in, the early returns on Shane Baz as an Oriole are neither alarming nor reassuring\u2014they\u2019re more inconclusive. The gap between his actual results and his expected metrics suggests the ERA will come down. Patterns are already emerging that suggest he is leaning more heavily into his curve and cutter, a mix that appears to be working well. Camden Yards is a more forgiving environment than Steinbrenner Field, and Baz has shown in flashes (including five games of nine or more strikeouts in 2025) that the potential is real. The Orioles gave up a great deal to acquire him, well before he\u2019d thrown a pitch in orange and black, and they gave up a lot to keep him here long-term. There are legitimate reasons to believe the best of Shane Baz is still ahead of him. We\u2019re still watching, and what we see is enough to stay interested.\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s no lie to say that, even among a sea of flame-throwing MLB starters, Shane Baz\u2019s talent stands…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":677640,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2374],"tags":[143,47,3357,2538,5,4,125],"class_list":{"0":"post-677639","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-baltimore-orioles","8":"tag-baltimore","9":"tag-baltimore-orioles","10":"tag-baltimore-orioles-analysis","11":"tag-baltimoreorioles","12":"tag-baseball","13":"tag-mlb","14":"tag-orioles"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116420265027218143","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=677639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677639\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/677640"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=677639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=677639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=677639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}