{"id":678702,"date":"2026-04-18T23:09:25","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T23:09:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/678702\/"},"modified":"2026-04-18T23:09:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T23:09:25","slug":"griffin-jax-will-rebound-draysbay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/678702\/","title":{"rendered":"Griffin Jax will rebound | DRaysBay"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The Rays had high expectations for Griffin Jax when he was acquired at last year\u2019s trade deadline. After some poor batted ball luck but mostly good results to finish the 2025 season, Jax has gotten off to an uneven start in 2026. While it is unfortunate that he has allowed runs to score in four of his nine appearances this season, I don\u2019t think there\u2019s any cause for concern yet. His stuff is still plus across the board and he has a strong track record as a reliable high-leverage reliever. Jax\u2019s location consistency &#8211; particularly with his sweeper &#8211; appears to be the main driver behind his early struggles.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">I\u2019ve been tracking what I call \u201ccommand deltas\u201d across the league dating back to 2023. I\u2019ll share a brief summary of what a command delta is, but you can read more <a href=\"https:\/\/dogpancake73.streamlit.app\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.draysbay.com\/tampa-bay-rays-analysis\/86496\/can-joe-boyle-replace-shane-baz-in-the-rotation\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>. A command delta measures how tightly a pitcher clusters a pitch around its intended location. It\u2019s calculated by combining the variation in both horizontal and vertical pitch locations, then grading that number on the 20-80 scouting scale (lower = more consistent, higher = less consistent).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Like most pitch-level metrics, it takes time to stabilize &#8211; typically around 100-150 pitches depending on the pitch type. It\u2019s not a standalone evaluation of command, but it can be useful when paired with metrics like strike rate, zone rate, and pitch-level heatmaps.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Below are Jax\u2019s command delta grades from 2023 through the very small sample we have so far in 2026 (excluding pitches that he didn\u2019t throw at least 100 times in a season):<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">While it\u2019s too early to say definitively what Jax\u2019s location consistency will look like at the end of this season, we can still look at the patterns:<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The command deltas point to the sweeper, and the visual data supports that.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">And compare it to the heatmap for his sweeper so far in 2026:<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The data suggests Jax is struggling to consistently locate his best pitch. As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tampabay.com\/sports\/rays\/2026\/04\/17\/oneil-cruz-pirates-griffin-jax-nick-martinez-brandon-lowe-bubba-chandler\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Nick Fortes noted after Friday\u2019s game<\/a> against the Pirates, it\u2019s been an ongoing issue. More consistent sweeper execution would force hitters to respect the pitch and expand the zone more often. His chase rate on the pitch typically sits around 40%, but this season it\u2019s just over 20% while the chase rates on his other pitches are roughly aligned with his career averages. Once he\u2019s able to get hitters to respect his sweeper again, they\u2019ll have more difficulty timing up his fastball shapes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Finding better execution of his sweeper is easier said than done. If it was as simple as I\u2019m making it sound, Jax would have fixed it already. The shape of the pitch will vary a bit year to year, but its pretty close to the shape he showed in 2024, so that makes a grip change less likely as the root cause. The catcher set-ups also appear consistent, suggesting it\u2019s not a cueing issue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">If the team wanted to reduce pressure while he finds his feel for the pitch again, Jax could open some games. He is currently coming into high pressure situations late in a game where he has to execute. Obviously, your high-leverage relievers have to do this &#8211; it\u2019s part of the job. However, allowing for a different mental approach where he can \u201cgrip it and rip it\u201d with lower stakes could be beneficial in helping him reset his execution of the pitch. Although role changes are rarely this simple in practice, Jax could later be moved back into high-leverage after he\u2019s had some time to regain his feel for the pitch.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Regardless of the role, there\u2019s reason to believe that Jax and the staff will get his sweeper back to being a dominant pitch. Given that the sweeper drives a significant portion of his chase and put-away ability, even small inconsistencies can have outsized effects on his overall performance. In short, this looks less like a decline in stuff and more like a temporary loss of feel for a pitch that drives his entire profile.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Rays had high expectations for Griffin Jax when he was acquired at last year\u2019s trade deadline. After&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":678703,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2377],"tags":[5,4,297,2550,68,81431,2551,2549],"class_list":{"0":"post-678702","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tampa-bay-rays","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-mlb","10":"tag-rays","11":"tag-tampa-bay","12":"tag-tampa-bay-rays","13":"tag-tampa-bay-rays-analysis","14":"tag-tampabay","15":"tag-tampabayrays"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116428234133790656","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/678702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=678702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/678702\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/678703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=678702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=678702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=678702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}