{"id":679018,"date":"2026-04-19T10:15:36","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T10:15:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/679018\/"},"modified":"2026-04-19T10:15:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T10:15:36","slug":"red-sox-mailbag-what-has-to-improve-for-club-to-get-back-over-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/679018\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox mailbag: What has to improve for club to get back over .500?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Three weeks into the season, the Red Sox aren\u2019t where anyone hoped they\u2019d be in the standings.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s gone wrong? How can the Red Sox turn things around? We answer your questions in today\u2019s Red Sox mailbag.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s it going to take for the Red Sox to get back to .500 or better before month\u2019s end? What\u2019s missing or not good? \u2014 Ed H.<\/p>\n

For this team to win, the starting pitching has to be great. And so far it\u2019s been hit or miss.<\/p>\n

Entering this weekend\u2019s series the Red Sox were a perfect 7-0 when their starters went six innings and 0-11 when they did not. That pretty much tells the whole story right there, and with the offense scuffling out of the gate the club hasn\u2019t been able to fight back whenever the starter gets chased early.<\/p>\n

There are going to be days where the starter doesn\u2019t go deep, but it can\u2019t be a less than 40-60 split like it\u2019s been so far.<\/p>\n

Individually there have been encouraging outings mixed with some real stinkers. Garrett Crochet is obviously the most extreme example, as his season stats have been heavily skewed by his 11-run, 1 2\/3-inning implosion on Monday, but two of his first three outings before that were quality starts.<\/p>\n

Same goes for Sonny Gray (two quality starts, two 4-inning clunkers), Ranger Suarez and Brayan Bello (both two bad games followed by a gem). Only Connelly Early has been consistently solid, but even two of his outings so far were short and laborious.<\/p>\n

Obviously this team\u2019s problems go deeper than the starting pitching, and several key offensive performers need to pick up the slack, but if the starters can settle down and start stringing some quality outings together, the Red Sox should be in good shape once the calendar turns to May.<\/p>\n

Both Caleb Durbin and Jarren Duran have gotten off to terrible starts (especially Durbin). They will both recover to a certain degree, but what do you now project as their realistic numbers come the end of the year? \u2014 @wcbosox on Bluesky<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not good enough at math or statistics to come up with any projection worth its weight, but fortunately the good folks at FanGraphs maintain updated in-season projections for every player in MLB.<\/p>\n

Their numbers for Caleb Durbin and Jarren Duran remain promising.<\/p>\n

For Durbin, FanGraphs\u2019 Steamer projection has the Red Sox third baseman down for a .257 batting average, nine home runs, 17 stolen bases, a .720 OPS and a 99 wRC+, which in layman\u2019s terms means Durbin\u2019s overall offensive production would be 1% worse than average.<\/p>\n

The numbers are slightly better for Duran. As of this writing Steamer projects Duran will bat .251 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, a .742 OPS and a 103 wRC+, which equals 3% better than average.<\/p>\n

The Red Sox would obviously prefer both finish as much more than just league-average offensive producers, but considering their starts even that would represent a major improvement from the first few weeks.<\/p>\n

For the record, Steamer is highest on Roman Anthony, projecting the second-year outfielder will lead the team in both wRC+ (118) and wins above replacement (2.4).<\/p>\n

\"FormerFormer Red Sox first-round pick Mikey Romero has already reached Triple-A at just 22 years old. (Tayla Bolduc\/Worcester Red Sox)
\nAre there any prospects that can help? \u2014 Doug S.<\/p>\n

After years of waiting and looking to the future, the cavalry has more or less already arrived.<\/p>\n

Following the promotions of Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer, the Red Sox don\u2019t have any other big ticket position player prospects who are ready to make an impact at the MLB level. The closest is probably Mikey Romero, a former first-round pick who is performing well at Triple-A as a 22-year-old, but he could use more time in Worcester before he\u2019s ready for primetime.<\/p>\n

Boston\u2019s other top position player prospects are still several years away. Franklin Arias, who is ranked No. 2 in the system and No. 26 overall by MLB Pipeline, has played fewer than two dozen games above Single-A. Outfield slugger Justin Gonzales is still 19 years old and at High-A, top recent international signee Dorian Soto hasn\u2019t even debuted stateside, and Henry Godbout, Boston\u2019s top position player draft pick from last summer, has barely begun his professional career.<\/p>\n

Kristian Campbell technically doesn\u2019t qualify as a prospect anymore, but even he\u2019s kind of in limbo. Campbell hasn\u2019t been hitting anywhere near the level he did at Triple-A prior to making the Opening Day roster last season, and with the outfield jammed up and Marcelo Mayer playing second, there isn\u2019t a spot for him in the big leagues right now anyway.<\/p>\n

With the performances and different looks of the lineup is there an increased urgency from the front office to provide a permanent solution in-season or do they believe this lineup is still good enough to be where they want to be? \u2014 Phillippe B.<\/p>\n

I think there are two issues to consider here with the lineup. The performance issues and the structural issues.<\/p>\n

Performance-wise, this offense has not lived up to expectations. Nobody would have had any reason to expect that Duran, Durbin and Carlos Narvaez would all have gotten off to such a slow start. Same with Trevor Story, though he has at least shown signs of turning the corner recently.<\/p>\n

Marcelo Mayer hasn\u2019t been great at the plate either, so put it all together and that\u2019s more than half of the regular lineup performing at a sub-standard level for an extended stretch all at once. It doesn\u2019t matter who you are, no team can overcome that.<\/p>\n

The good news is over 162 games production inevitably ebbs and flows, so before long the Red Sox will make some adjustments and the results should improve. If the starting pitching gets on a roll too, that should go a long way towards helping the Red Sox stack some more wins, and the club should have a chance to get back near the top of the standings.<\/p>\n

But even if everyone starts playing to their full potential, that won\u2019t solve the structural problems.<\/p>\n

I guess my main question is, like, what the heck? No seriously, are they committed to this roster or do they realize they have to end some log jams, even if they don\u2019t \u201cwin\u201d the trade? \u2014 Matt S.<\/p>\n

As it stands now, the Red Sox roster is completely dysfunctional. The club has five starting-caliber outfielders and can only play four at a time, and since four of those outfielders also bat left-handed, the Red Sox can\u2019t even set up a platoon or effectively deploy pinch hitters late in game.<\/p>\n

A case could be made that all of the mixing and matching has prevented the outfielders from settling into a rhythm, possibly contributing to Duran\u2019s poor start or Roman Anthony\u2019s ok-but-not-great one.<\/p>\n

The roster had similar issues last year too, but injuries largely kept the logjam clear at any given point outside of a brief stretch where Ceddanne Rafaela occasionally had to play second base. The Red Sox are smartly avoiding that this year, but unless someone gets hurt the club will be operating with a mismatched position player group where the puzzle pieces just don\u2019t fit, no matter how hard Alex Cora tries.<\/p>\n

At some point the Red Sox are going to have to make some moves to free things up for the long haul, but if they couldn\u2019t do it this past winter, I wouldn\u2019t count on anything happening until at least the trade deadline.<\/p>\n

\"ArizonaCould the Red Sox try to take another shot at acquiring Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte? (AP Photo\/Brynn Anderson)
\nIf the Red Sox were to go all in and trade for a top big bat\/power hitter (by all in, I mean including Duran, major league pitching like Bello or Sandoval and even top prospects), what position do you see that hitter playing? \u2014 @motowntitan on Bluesky<\/p>\n

The way I see it, there are two approaches the Red Sox could take.<\/p>\n

One would see the Red Sox clear their outfield and designated hitter logjam by trading both Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida, probably in separate deals. In return for Duran and likely several prospects, the Red Sox could target a power-hitting slugger who could theoretically play any position but who would slot into the heart of the lineup as the every day DH.<\/p>\n

Boston could then roll with an outfield alignment of Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, and with Yoshida no longer taking up a bench spot the club could either call up or acquire a right-handed hitting bench outfielder, which the Red Sox currently lack.<\/p>\n

The other approach might be revisiting the possibility of acquiring Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte.<\/p>\n

This past winter the Red Sox were reportedly in on the three-time All-Star, but a deal never came together. If Boston could work out a trade, however, Marte could slot into the second base spot and provide an immediate offensive boost.<\/p>\n

The downside, obviously, is that the Diamondbacks would almost certainly insist on Marcelo Mayer being included in such a deal. And maybe that could prove worthwhile, since Marte\u2019s arrival would likely bump Mayer to Triple-A in the short-term and possibly block his path in the long run. But considering everything the Red Sox have invested in Mayer over the past five years, they would have to be absolutely sure moving on was the right call before agreeing to a deal like that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Three weeks into the season, the Red Sox aren\u2019t where anyone hoped they\u2019d be in the standings. What\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":679019,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2375],"tags":[858,5,141,48,2542,3615,922,604,729,1248,792,4,90,89,2543,793,1587],"class_list":{"0":"post-679018","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-boston-red-sox","8":"tag-alex-cora","9":"tag-baseball","10":"tag-boston","11":"tag-boston-red-sox","12":"tag-bostonredsox","13":"tag-caleb-durbin","14":"tag-garrett-crochet","15":"tag-jarren-duran","16":"tag-ketel-marte","17":"tag-marcelo-mayer","18":"tag-masataka-yoshida","19":"tag-mlb","20":"tag-ranger-suarez","21":"tag-red-sox","22":"tag-redsox","23":"tag-roman-anthony","24":"tag-sonny-gray"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116430853855053308","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/679018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=679018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/679018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/679019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=679018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=679018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=679018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}