There are a lot of fingers to point. There usually is when your losing streak hits double digits.<\/p>\n
But can we look at the major facets of this team and identify where there\u2019s still hope, and where there\u2019s perhaps the most work to be done? Yeah, we can do that.<\/p>\n
Fielding<\/p>\n
Improving their team defense was a point of emphasis in the offseason, and Mets\u2019 leadership took the interesting path of using players who had been negatives with the glove last year and moving them to easier positions. Signing Jorge Polanco and moving him to first base and away from second base was one example. Bringing up Carson Benge, but to play the corner outfield and not center field every day was another. Mark Vientos has been limited to first base and DH.<\/p>\n
The big one, of course, was signing Bo Bichette and moving him to third.<\/p>\n
How\u2019s it working? According to advanced defensive metrics \u2014 it\u2019s working OK! Last year, the Mets were 19th in Statcast\u2019s Fielding Run Value, and 15th in Defensive Runs Saved. This year, they are 12th and 10th, respectively. No player is rated as a negative by both systems. Bichette and Benge are the only two with multiple errors, and it\u2019s too early to call that a trend. As much as you might worry about the fact that Bichette is now playing third base and had a below-average arm for shortstop, you also have to acknowledge that only four teams have been better at turning ground balls into outs than the Mets.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s still more to be learned about how some specific parts fit into the whole, but defense doesn\u2019t seem to be the No. 1 problem here.<\/p>\n
Hitting<\/p>\n
Through Monday, only the Royals had scored fewer runs per game than the Mets. But the teams around them at the bottom of that leaderboard didn\u2019t have as lofty expectations coming into the season. In fact, no team has underperformed their hitting projections more than the Mets.<\/p>\n
Lagging behind projections<\/p>\n
TeamRS\/GProj. RS\/GRS\/G Diff<\/p>\n
3.27<\/p>\n
4.64<\/p>\n
1.37<\/p>\n
3.23<\/p>\n
4.56<\/p>\n
1.33<\/p>\n
3.57<\/p>\n
4.66<\/p>\n
1.09<\/p>\n
3.55<\/p>\n
4.51<\/p>\n
0.96<\/p>\n
3.41<\/p>\n
4.34<\/p>\n
0.93<\/p>\n
3.86<\/p>\n
4.52<\/p>\n
0.66<\/p>\n
There\u2019s good and bad news nestled into that leaderboard. For one, they\u2019re still projected to be a decent offense. Going forward, their expected runs per game would sit around seventh, between the Cubs and Phillies. But, the Phillies\u2019 struggles aside, the Cubs are out here putting up five-plus runs a game, not struggling to score three. What has to go right for the Mets to get back to their projections?<\/p>\n
Obviously, Juan Soto needs to get back on the field. But one man can only do so much.<\/p>\n
Luis Robert Jr. is showing more plate discipline. Along with Francisco Alvarez and the injured Soto, they are the only three Mets regulars putting up above-average batting lines. Bichette, Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien have combined for a .218\/.280\/.300 line and need to pick it up for the Mets to start winning games.<\/p>\n
Some of the \u201cluck\u201d metrics say they can. In terms of Statcast\u2019s expected production statistics \u2014 which take into account how often and hard the ball was hit, and where \u2014 only the Reds, Tigers and Padres have been unluckier<\/a> so far this year. More plate appearances, particularly for a notorious slow starter like Lindor, might be all the doctor ordered.<\/p>\n But Bichette\u2019s issues do highlight a potential team-wide problem. No team lets the ball travel as deep into the strike zone<\/a> as the Mets do. Bichette has had a lot of success doing this in the past, but he\u2019s letting it travel even further this year, making contact 23.6 inches in front of his center of mass. The team as a whole makes contact at 28.4 inches.<\/p>\n Mike Petriello at MLB.com demonstrated that the ideal intercept point for contact is around 30 inches in front<\/a>, and for power it\u2019s another six inches further out in front. Only Lindor, Semien and Vientos make contact out in front of 30 inches on average, and they barely do so.<\/p>\n Making contact further out in front leads to more balls in the air and more pull power. The Mets have the sixth-lowest attack angle on the ball, and the seventh-lowest rate of hitting the ball with the ideal attack angle. They\u2019re 28th in fly ball rate. The fact that they let the ball travel so much is part of the problem. Of course, Soto and Bichette have done this well in the past, and can make it work again. And the Yankees let the ball travel the fifth-most in baseball and have a great offense. But they also have the best bat speed in baseball, which makes up for any deficiencies in the swing path.<\/p>\n So that\u2019s what the Mets offense has to do, to some extent. Either swing harder to get more out of every batted ball, or go get the ball out in front in order to lift it better.<\/p>\n Every player is different and has their own pathway forward, but as far as diagnosing a team-wide problem, there might be something here.<\/p>\n Starting rotation<\/p>\n Even in the midst of a terrible stretch, it\u2019s not all bad news. The Mets\u2019 rotation still ranks around the middle of the pack when it comes to Wins Above Replacement, ERA, strikeout minus walk rate \u2014 many of the top-level results show that it\u2019s at least an OK situation.<\/p>\n The advanced stats like them a little more. They have the 10th-best strikeout rate as a group, and Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean and Clay Holmes all profile as above-average starters by Pitching+, which looks at pitchers\u2019 stuff and command.<\/p>\n When it comes to their fifth spot, yeah things don\u2019t look great. David Peterson was demoted to the bullpen<\/a>. Tobias Myers might be moving into that spot, and that could take some time to sort through. Christian Scott\u2019s strikeout and walk numbers look great in Triple A, but not his overall results. Maybe those align soon and Scott is an answer. Jonah Tong could find his command soon, as well. They have some options, and every team has some velocity when it comes to the fifth spot in the rotation.<\/p>\n That fourth spot, though, is a conundrum. Kodai Senga still has a great career ERA (3.33) in 300+ innings in the big leagues, but it\u2019s felt far more mercurial than that number might suggest. If he is able to get it going, he\u2019d change the complexion of the rotation. And though it\u2019s nice that his velocity is up so far this season (even after coming down from where it was in his first start), it\u2019s better command that\u2019s the way forward for him.<\/p>\n Take a look at where he was putting his four-seam fastball last year (left) versus this year (right) and the issue becomes clear quickly: He\u2019s throwing too many middle-in and low fastballs. He needs to rediscover his high-and-away fastball, in particular, as that can help the cutter (which he traditionally throws low and away to lefties) and the ghost fork (also low and away to lefties), tunnel better and appear more deceiving to hitters.<\/p>\n The good news is that the rotation hasn\u2019t been underperforming as badly as much of the rest of the team, they have some depth that can help, and command comes and goes more often than stuff, so Senga still has a chance to right the ship here.<\/p>\n Bullpen<\/p>\n There\u2019s no metric that favors this bullpen. They\u2019re 25th in strikeout rate, 21st in Stuff+ and 18th in expected ERA. Their best reliever so far is 37 and barely cracks 90 on the radar gun (Brooks Raley). Even if you can point to Devin Williams\u2019 strikeout rate (which is excellent) and say he\u2019ll be fine, they might be a few ducks short of a parade back there.<\/p>\n Luke Weaver\u2019s stuff doesn\u2019t look all that different from last year in terms of movement, but going from 95.1 mph to 94.2 mph on the fastball may be a bigger deal than it seems. The average right-handed reliever in MLB is averaging over 95 mph on the fastball this year, so 94.2 is dropping below average \u2014 not a great place for your setup guy.<\/p>\n A.J. Minter\u2019s return could be a big deal for this team, as he would give them above-average velocity and elite stuff from the left side. He could even close for them if Williams\u2019 struggles continue. Huascar Brazob\u00e1n is moving into the late-inning mix and will be useful even if he doesn\u2019t miss bats. The tale of any bullpen ends up being a sorting process; it\u2019s just been a little more painful for the Mets.<\/p>\n If Minter returns at full strength, and Weaver finds some of what he lost, this could be a good enough bullpen if not top 10 in the league. In terms of pitching development, the Mets are highly regarded, and so maybe a reliever currently in the minor leagues will take a step forward and give them what they need \u2014 though they\u2019ve traded away some good arms in deadline deals over the last couple of years, too.<\/p>\n That said, the bullpen just doesn\u2019t seem to be the biggest red flag. It was supposed to be middle of the pack and may end up there, even if it\u2019s a few spots south of that ranking right now.<\/p>\n But the Mets as a whole? The Mets were projected to be a top five team before the season<\/a>, and now those same projections have them within a game or two of .500<\/a>\u00a0for the season.<\/p>\n The biggest culprit seems to be the missing offense. And while there\u2019s some hope for a turnaround with key hitters getting healthy and tweaking their approach at the plate, there\u2019s no looking past the fact that the offense is the biggest factor in their decline so far. They can call up a starting or pitcher or two, they can get healthy in the bullpen, but if the bats don\u2019t get going it\u2019s going to be a long season in Flushing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s actually kind of hard to pin down what exactly is wrong with the New York Mets. Because…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":680251,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2396],"tags":[5,101,4,1690,61,2548,4203],"class_list":{"0":"post-680250","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-york-mets","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-mets","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-new-york","12":"tag-new-york-mets","13":"tag-newyork","14":"tag-newyorkmets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116442193056380829","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=680250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680250\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/680251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=680250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=680250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=680250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/SengaFastball.jpg\")
<\/p>\n