Never Make the Third Out at Third Base![\"Cincinnati](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/01kprt3qz7taskv0gvz3.jpg\" "\\"Cincinnati")
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Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona (77) walks back to the dugout after making a pitching change in the ninth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball Park on Thursday, April 16, 2026. The Giants won 3-0. | Sam Greene\/The Enquirer \/ USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images<\/p>\n
“I didn’t send him…it turned out to be a very good (play). You just can’t ever get thrown out there and I’ll remind him of that about 7 times tomorrow,” Francona said after the game on Monday night.<\/a><\/p>\n This situation brings up an interesting strategy in baseball. It’s very rare to see a player be aggressive toward advancing from second base to third base with two outs in the inning. It’s also rare to see them be aggressive, advancing from second base to third base with nobody out. <\/p>\n There’s an unwritten strategy that’s been adopted for decades that a team should never make the first out or the third out of the inning at third base.<\/p>\n Here’s why that strategy makes sense:<\/p>\n With nobody out and a man on second base, a team is projected to score 1.1 runs<\/a> in the inning. With nobody out and a man on third base, a team is projected to score 1.35 runs<\/a> in the inning. That difference alone isn’t worth the risk of getting thrown out. <\/p>\n With two outs, the expected run totals are even closer. With two outs and a man on second base, the team is projected to score 0.33 runs<\/a> in the inning. With a runner on third base and two outs, the team is projected to score 0.38 runs<\/a> in the inning.<\/p>\n The strategy itself makes sense, but Stewart caught the Rays sleeping. He didn’t run any risk of being thrown out, hence the no-throw decision from the catcher.<\/p>\n Sal Stewart Should Have Freedom to Be Aggressive Apr 20, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart (27) reacts after scoring a run in the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images<\/p>\n But the Reds certainly shouldn’t hold Stewart back. He plays the game with incredible instincts. He doesn’t take a single play off, which allowed him to steal a base and a run from the Rays. Without his steal of third base, the wild pitch would have moved him to third base instead of scoring him. When Su\u00e1rez struck out to end the inning, Stewart would have been left stranded. <\/p>\n The Reds should continue to echo this strategy to Stewart and the rest of the team, but it would be malpractice to clip his wings and take some of his freedom away. Players like Stewart and Elly De La Cruz are so good because they’re able to play freely. The Reds can’t afford to take that away from them. <\/p>\n Make sure you\u00a0bookmark Cincinnati Reds Talk\u00a0for the latest news, exclusive interviews, and daily coverage of the Cincinnati Reds! Follow Cincinnati Reds OnSI on Twitter\/X:\u00a0@RedsTalkSI. Like Our Cincinnati Reds On SI Facebook Page. Follow Cincinnati Reds On SI on Instagram.<\/p>\n![\"Cincinnati](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/01kprt1r9b7zmxxnjbns.jpg\" "\\"Cincinnati")
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