{"id":693746,"date":"2026-05-08T18:27:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T18:27:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/693746\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T18:27:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T18:27:19","slug":"momentum-mariners-at-white-sox-series-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/693746\/","title":{"rendered":"Momentum: Mariners at White Sox Series Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Mariners finally showed some life against a really tough opponent, handing the Braves their first series loss of the season earlier this week. All three games were incredibly close affairs as you would expect in a series between two playoff contenders. Seattle<\/a> now embarks on a seven-game road trip and the beginning of a stretch of 13 straight games without an off day. Despite possessing a record two games below .500, the M\u2019s are still in fine position in the standings because it seems like no other team in the American League actually wants to win \u2014 there are just four teams with winning records currently and the Mariners are in possession of a Wild Card berth with their 18-20 record.<\/p>\n

Game<\/p>\n

Time<\/p>\n

Mariners<\/a> Starter<\/p>\n

White Sox Starter<\/p>\n

Mariners Win%<\/p>\n

White Sox Win%<\/p>\n

Game 1<\/p>\n

Friday, May 8 | 4:40 pm<\/p>\n

RHP Emerson Hancock<\/a><\/p>\n

RHP Sean Burke<\/a><\/p>\n

52.8%<\/p>\n

47.2%<\/p>\n

Game 2<\/p>\n

Saturday, May 9 | 4:10 pm<\/p>\n

RHP Luis Castillo<\/a><\/p>\n

LHP Anthony Kay<\/p>\n

55.7%<\/p>\n

44.3%<\/p>\n

Game 3<\/p>\n

Sunday, May 10 | 11:10 am<\/p>\n

RHP Logan<\/a> Gilbert<\/p>\n

RHP Davis Martin<\/p>\n

55.2%<\/p>\n

44.8%<\/p>\n

Overview<\/p>\n

White Sox<\/p>\n

Mariners<\/p>\n

Edge<\/p>\n

Batting (wRC+)<\/p>\n

96 (11th in AL)<\/p>\n

103 (3rd in AL)<\/p>\n

Mariners<\/p>\n

Fielding (FRV)<\/p>\n

1 (6th)<\/p>\n

-12 (15th)<\/p>\n

White Sox<\/p>\n

Starting Pitching (FIP-)<\/p>\n

99 (10th)<\/p>\n

96 (5th)<\/p>\n

Mariners<\/p>\n

Bullpen (FIP-)<\/p>\n

103 (9th)<\/p>\n

82 (2nd)<\/p>\n

Mariners<\/p>\n

The White Sox have made some quick progress in their rebuild after losing more than 100 games in three straight seasons. It\u2019s easy to improve after losing a record 121 games like they did in 2024, but the forward progress this year has been shocking. The team was the surprising landing spot for Munetaka Murakami this offseason and their crop of young prospects have already started to make big impacts in the majors. After a bit of a slow start to the season, Chicago is 11-7 over its last 18 games. Even though they\u2019re in a pretty favorable spot in the standings \u2014 third in the AL Central and just half a game out of a Wild Card spot \u2014 I don\u2019t think this team is suddenly a contender this year, but they\u2019re definitely a lot closer to breaking out of their rebuilding cycle than expected.<\/p>\n

Player<\/p>\n

Position<\/p>\n

Bats<\/p>\n

PA<\/p>\n

K%<\/p>\n

BB%<\/p>\n

ISO<\/p>\n

wRC+<\/p>\n

Sam Antonacci<\/p>\n

LF<\/p>\n

L<\/p>\n

74<\/p>\n

9.5%<\/p>\n

8.1%<\/p>\n

0.148<\/p>\n

126<\/p>\n

Munetaka Murakami<\/p>\n

1B<\/p>\n

L<\/p>\n

160<\/p>\n

34.4%<\/p>\n

17.5%<\/p>\n

0.328<\/p>\n

153<\/p>\n

Miguel Vargas<\/a><\/p>\n

3B<\/p>\n

R<\/p>\n

159<\/p>\n

17.0%<\/p>\n

16.4%<\/p>\n

0.208<\/p>\n

119<\/p>\n

Colson Montgomery<\/a><\/p>\n

SS<\/p>\n

L<\/p>\n

154<\/p>\n

28.6%<\/p>\n

9.7%<\/p>\n

0.258<\/p>\n

127<\/p>\n

Chase Meidroth<\/a><\/p>\n

2B<\/p>\n

R<\/p>\n

153<\/p>\n

24.2%<\/p>\n

10.5%<\/p>\n

0.098<\/p>\n

108<\/p>\n

Andrew Benintendi<\/a><\/p>\n

DH<\/p>\n

L<\/p>\n

121<\/p>\n

33.1%<\/p>\n

5.8%<\/p>\n

0.135<\/p>\n

74<\/p>\n

Jarred Kelenic<\/a> (MiLB)<\/p>\n

RF<\/p>\n

L<\/p>\n

104<\/p>\n

28.8%<\/p>\n

18.3%<\/p>\n

0.262<\/p>\n

98<\/p>\n

Tristan Peters<\/a><\/p>\n

CF<\/p>\n

L<\/p>\n

89<\/p>\n

24.7%<\/p>\n

6.7%<\/p>\n

0.038<\/p>\n

78<\/p>\n

Drew Romo<\/a> (MiLB)<\/p>\n

C<\/p>\n

S<\/p>\n

68<\/p>\n

26.5%<\/p>\n

10.3%<\/p>\n

0.263<\/p>\n

137<\/p>\n

I think there are a bunch of teams who really regret missing out on Murakami this offseason now that they\u2019ve seen what he can do against MLB pitching. Yes, the contact issues are still present \u2014 he\u2019s running 34.4% strikeout rate and a 58.9% contact rate \u2014 but his walk rate has been surprisingly robust and the power is obviously big enough to play. He\u2019s currently second in the majors with 14 home runs. He\u2019s not the only power hitter in the middle of this lineup either. Colson Montgomery made a splash last summer, blasting 21 home runs in just 71 games after being called up in July. He\u2019s hit another nine to start this year and is playing solid defense at shortstop to boot. Miguel Vargas is the other youngster showing some real progress this season. Pushed off the fringe of the Dodgers<\/a> roster a few years ago, he\u2019s been able to establish himself with regular playing time in Chicago. He\u2019s got an excellent approach at the plate and hits the ball hard enough to run an above average batting line at third base.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

Jarred Kelenic deserves a mention as well. He was recalled from Triple-A last week after Everson Pereira<\/a> was sidelined with an injury. Kelenic couldn\u2019t establish himself in the two years he spent in Atlanta<\/a> and signed a minor league deal with the White Sox this offseason. Still just 26 years old, his issues are still the same as ever: trouble making consistent contact.<\/p>\n

Probable Pitchers<\/p>\n

Updated Stuff+ Explainer<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Pitcher<\/p>\n

IP<\/p>\n

K%<\/p>\n

BB%<\/p>\n

HR\/FB%<\/p>\n

GB%<\/p>\n

ERA<\/p>\n

FIP<\/p>\n

Sean Burke<\/p>\n

39.2<\/p>\n

20.5%<\/p>\n

5.1%<\/p>\n

6.8%<\/p>\n

42.5%<\/p>\n

2.72<\/p>\n

3.19<\/p>\n

Emerson Hancock<\/p>\n

41.2<\/p>\n

28.9%<\/p>\n

3.8%<\/p>\n

17.5%<\/p>\n

46.7%<\/p>\n

2.59<\/p>\n

3.69<\/p>\n

Pitch<\/p>\n

Usage vRHB<\/p>\n

Usage vLHB<\/p>\n

Velocity<\/p>\n

Stuff+<\/p>\n

Whiff+<\/p>\n

BIP+<\/p>\n

xwOBA<\/p>\n

Four-seam<\/p>\n

28.8%<\/p>\n

42.9%<\/p>\n

94.0<\/p>\n

112<\/p>\n

97<\/p>\n

108<\/p>\n

0.289<\/p>\n

Sinker<\/p>\n

24.2%<\/p>\n

9.1%<\/p>\n

94.2<\/p>\n

91<\/p>\n

55<\/p>\n

196<\/p>\n

0.292<\/p>\n

Cutter<\/p>\n

2.7%<\/p>\n

6.9%<\/p>\n

89.9<\/p>\n

86<\/p>\n

Changeup<\/p>\n

0.4%<\/p>\n

6.9%<\/p>\n

85.8<\/p>\n

Curveball<\/p>\n

16.7%<\/p>\n

28.8%<\/p>\n

79.3<\/p>\n

87<\/p>\n

58<\/p>\n

112<\/p>\n

0.306<\/p>\n

Slider<\/p>\n

27.3%<\/p>\n

5.3%<\/p>\n

86.5<\/p>\n

85<\/p>\n

Sean Burke showed some flashes of promise in his first full season in the big leagues last year. His 4.22 ERA was perfectly acceptable for a rebuilding Chicago club, though his 4.92 FIP wasn\u2019t nearly as encouraging. Still, there was a stretch in May and June where he ran a 3.33 ERA and a 4.06 FIP across nine starts. Things are looking up for Burke this year. He\u2019s dramatically improved his command and cut his walk rate by more than half, down to 5.1%. He doesn\u2019t strike out that many guys, but simply reducing the amount of traffic on the bases has helped him dramatically improve his topline results.<\/p>\n

Pitcher<\/p>\n

IP<\/p>\n

K%<\/p>\n

BB%<\/p>\n

HR\/FB%<\/p>\n

GB%<\/p>\n

ERA<\/p>\n

FIP<\/p>\n

Anthony Kay<\/a><\/p>\n

30<\/p>\n

14.0%<\/p>\n

10.5%<\/p>\n

15.4%<\/p>\n

39.2%<\/p>\n

5.70<\/p>\n

6.41<\/p>\n

Luis Castillo<\/p>\n

34.1<\/p>\n

19.4%<\/p>\n

8.1%<\/p>\n

8.7%<\/p>\n

33.0%<\/p>\n

6.29<\/p>\n

4.25<\/p>\n

Pitch<\/p>\n

Usage vRHB<\/p>\n

Usage vLHB<\/p>\n

Velocity<\/p>\n

Stuff+<\/p>\n

Whiff+<\/p>\n

BIP+<\/p>\n

xwOBA<\/p>\n

Four-seam<\/p>\n

38.2%<\/p>\n

35.2%<\/p>\n

95.8<\/p>\n

91<\/p>\n

57<\/p>\n

72<\/p>\n

0.491<\/p>\n

Sinker<\/p>\n

13.4%<\/p>\n

44.0%<\/p>\n

95.1<\/p>\n

114<\/p>\n

Cutter<\/p>\n

24.1%<\/p>\n

18.7%<\/p>\n

90.9<\/p>\n

99<\/p>\n

91<\/p>\n

158<\/p>\n

0.421<\/p>\n

Changeup<\/p>\n

22.3%<\/p>\n

0.0%<\/p>\n

85.7<\/p>\n

109<\/p>\n

Slider<\/p>\n

2.0%<\/p>\n

2.2%<\/p>\n

84.6<\/p>\n

109<\/p>\n

Sweeper<\/p>\n

20.3%<\/p>\n

45.1%<\/p>\n

82.8<\/p>\n

109<\/p>\n

78<\/p>\n

97<\/p>\n

0.323<\/p>\n

After a few years of riding the Triple-A shuttle for the Blue Jays, Anthony Kay signed a two-year deal with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of NBP. He excelled in Japan and returned to the US this offseason, signing a two-year deal with Chicago. He developed a sinker and a sweeper overseas, giving him a much deeper repertoire to keep batters off balance. Unfortunately, that revamped arsenal hasn\u2019t helped him find much success against batters this year. The stuff models really like his sinker and a few of his secondary pitches, but he\u2019s throwing a thoroughly mediocre four-seam fastball 30% of the time right now. That pitch is getting absolutely crushed. He simply isn\u2019t working deep enough into counts to properly utilize his secondary pitches, his strike out rate has cratered to just 14.0%, and his ERA and FIP are both approaching six.<\/p>\n

Pitcher<\/p>\n

IP<\/p>\n

K%<\/p>\n

BB%<\/p>\n

HR\/FB%<\/p>\n

GB%<\/p>\n

ERA<\/p>\n

FIP<\/p>\n

Davis Martin<\/a><\/p>\n

44<\/p>\n

25.4%<\/p>\n

4.7%<\/p>\n

4.9%<\/p>\n

38.6%<\/p>\n

1.64<\/p>\n

2.46<\/p>\n

Logan Gilbert<\/p>\n

44<\/p>\n

23.2%<\/p>\n

5.4%<\/p>\n

15.4%<\/p>\n

36.7%<\/p>\n

4.30<\/p>\n

4.43<\/p>\n

Pitch<\/p>\n

Usage vRHB<\/p>\n

Usage vLHB<\/p>\n

Velocity<\/p>\n

Stuff+<\/p>\n

Whiff+<\/p>\n

BIP+<\/p>\n

xwOBA<\/p>\n

Four-seam<\/p>\n

21.8%<\/p>\n

28.9%<\/p>\n

94.0<\/p>\n

96<\/p>\n

111<\/p>\n

102<\/p>\n

0.356<\/p>\n

Sinker<\/p>\n

20.2%<\/p>\n

11.5%<\/p>\n

92.8<\/p>\n

86<\/p>\n

Cutter<\/p>\n

10.3%<\/p>\n

19.5%<\/p>\n

89.6<\/p>\n

89<\/p>\n

105<\/p>\n

82<\/p>\n

0.468<\/p>\n

Changeup<\/p>\n

10.7%<\/p>\n

21.4%<\/p>\n

90.1<\/p>\n

86<\/p>\n

45<\/p>\n

85<\/p>\n

0.356<\/p>\n

Curveball<\/p>\n

5.8%<\/p>\n

14.3%<\/p>\n

82.1<\/p>\n

91<\/p>\n

Slider<\/p>\n

31.3%<\/p>\n

4.4%<\/p>\n

87.1<\/p>\n

95<\/p>\n

Davis Martin has quietly led the White Sox rotation with a 1.64 ERA and 2.46 FIP in seven starts this year. He\u2019s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2.17 to 5.38 this year, adding more than eight points to his strikeout rate while simultaneously cutting his walk rate to 4.7%. He\u2019s added a cutter to his pitch mix this year, giving him six weapons to use against opposing batters. None of them stand out individually in the stuff models, but his slider looks like one of the nastiest pitches in baseball right now. The whiff rate on that breaking ball is 59.6%, the second highest whiff rate on a slider in baseball. Opposing batters are running a sub-.200 wOBA against his three secondary pitches, and a plus-.300 wOBA against his three fastball variations. The problem is that batters have been struggling to identify his pitches \u2014 his called strike rate is up 3.5 points this year \u2014 so even if they\u2019re making good contact against his fastballs, they\u2019re just as likely to whiff or mishit one of his secondary offerings.<\/p>\n

The Big Picture:<\/p>\n

Team<\/p>\n

W-L<\/p>\n

W%<\/p>\n

Games Behind<\/p>\n

Run Diff<\/p>\n

Recent Form<\/p>\n

Athletics<\/p>\n

19-18<\/p>\n

0.514<\/p>\n

\u2014<\/p>\n

-10<\/p>\n

L-W-L-L-W<\/p>\n

Mariners<\/p>\n

18-20<\/p>\n

0.474<\/p>\n

1.5<\/p>\n

+4<\/p>\n

L-L-W-L-W<\/p>\n

Rangers<\/p>\n

17-20<\/p>\n

0.459<\/p>\n

2.0<\/p>\n

-6<\/p>\n

L-L-L-W-L<\/p>\n

Astros<\/p>\n

15-23<\/p>\n

0.395<\/p>\n

4.5<\/p>\n

-37<\/p>\n

W-W-L-W-L<\/p>\n

Angels<\/p>\n

15-23<\/p>\n

0.395<\/p>\n

4.5<\/p>\n

-14<\/p>\n

W-L-L-W-W<\/p>\n

The Athletics<\/a> managed to avoid a sweep in Philadelphia<\/a> with a 12-1 blowout win yesterday. They head to Baltimore<\/a> this weekend looking to maintain their grip on the AL West lead. The Rangers lost their series in New York against the Yankees<\/a> and will return home to face the red-hot Cubs<\/a> this weekend. The blows just keep coming for the Astros<\/a>: Carlos Correa<\/a> has been sidelined for the season with an ankle injury suffered on Tuesday. Houston<\/a> wound up losing its series against the Dodgers and will head to Cincinnati<\/a> this weekend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Mariners finally showed some life against a really tough opponent, handing the Braves their first series loss…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":693747,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2379],"tags":[1000,10945,145,191,143,5,3225,1001,138,49,2561,535,10448,161,5285,39,14899,764,10857,139,1043,2220,331,620,4154,4,73,144,18,2003,619,7965,1949,4989,30019,396,2562,142],"class_list":["post-693746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-chicago-white-sox","tag-andrew-benintendi","tag-anthony-kay","tag-arsenal","tag-atlanta","tag-baltimore","tag-baseball","tag-carlos-correa","tag-chase-meidroth","tag-chicago","tag-chicago-white-sox","tag-chicagowhitesox","tag-cincinnati","tag-colson-montgomery","tag-cubs","tag-davis-martin","tag-dodgers","tag-drew-romo","tag-emerson-hancock","tag-everson-pereira","tag-houston","tag-jarred-kelenic","tag-logan","tag-luis-castillo","tag-mariners","tag-miguel-vargas","tag-mlb","tag-munetaka-murakami","tag-philadelphia","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-sean-burke","tag-seattle","tag-the-astros","tag-the-athletics","tag-the-mariners","tag-tristan-peters","tag-white-sox","tag-whitesox","tag-yankees"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693746","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=693746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693746\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/693747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=693746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=693746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=693746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}