{"id":711118,"date":"2026-05-28T15:33:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T15:33:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/711118\/"},"modified":"2026-05-28T15:33:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T15:33:19","slug":"mlb-best-bets-top-home-run-props-for-wednesday-5-27-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/711118\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run props for Wednesday 5\/27\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bryan Armetta analyzes his two favorite home run props across all of today\u2019s six-game MLB slate.<\/p>\n

With just six games on tap, Thursday\u2019s MLB home run props are a bit tricky. With so few players taking the field, it\u2019s slim pickings for most bettors. Still, that doesn\u2019t mean there isn\u2019t any value to be had here. In fact, a limited amount of matchups allows us to really dive into the numbers. Besides, plenty of big bats are expected to take the diamond throughout today\u2019s modest slate. Two players stand out in particular as names that are capable of taking one deep.<\/p>\n

Below are my two favorite picks from Thursday\u2019s games to hit a home run.<\/p>\n

Top MLB Home Run Props today<\/p>\n

Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+333)<\/a><\/p>\n

It hasn\u2019t been an ideal start to Pete Alonso\u2019s tenure in Baltimore. Over 56 games with his new club, the Polar Bear is slashing .232\/.318\/.435 at the plate with ten home runs. Granted, it\u2019s reasonable to expect the former Mets slugger to end the season with at least 30 homers. He\u2019s already clubbed six dingers during the month of May despite his overall offensive struggles. Per Savant, Alonso ranks within the 99th percentile in average exit velocity (95.0 MPH) and 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (55.2%).<\/p>\n

On Thursday, the Orioles will face Toronto\u2019s Patrick Corbin on the mound. This season, the southpaw has notched a 3.86 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 32 strikeouts (6.5 K\/9). The veteran, once a member of the Nationals, has plenty of history against Alonso. Unsurprisingly, they\u2019ve faced each other for a total of 52 at-bats. During those meetings, Pete is hitting .365 with five jacks. Without the ability to consistently generate whiffs, it\u2019s easy to envision Corbin giving up some hard contact tonight. That\u2019s especially true when facing one of the sport\u2019s most intimidating hitters.<\/p>\n

Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+363)<\/a><\/p>\n

The Pirates have been one of baseball\u2019s biggest surprises so far. Pittsburgh\u2019s 29-27 record has been made possible in large part by a surprisingly good lineup. The team is averaging 4.89 runs per game this season, fifth-most in the majors. Key to this offensive success has been trade acquisition Brandon Lowe. The two-time All-Star, when healthy, has always been a dangerous hitter. Over 50 games, the second baseman is slashing .269\/.355\/.560 with a team-leading 14 home runs and 36 RBIs.<\/p>\n

Although Lowe doesn\u2019t possess Alonso\u2019s elite power, his numbers aren\u2019t a fluke. The 31-year-old ranks within the top 79th percentile in expected slugging (.530), barrel rate (13.5%), and hard-hit rate (46.8%). To boot, he\u2019s done quite well in this matchup before. Lowe has hammed three homers over five games against the Cubs this season. That includes a three-run dinger on Wednesday night. In comparison, Chicago hurler Colin Rea doesn\u2019t inspire much confidence. The eighth-year pro is on the hook for a 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season. He\u2019s within the league\u2019s bottom tenth percentile in average exit velocity (91.7) and barrel rate (12.3%). Don\u2019t be shocked if Pittsburgh\u2019s slugger takes one deep at PNC Park on Thursday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bryan Armetta analyzes his two favorite home run props across all of today\u2019s six-game MLB slate. With just…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":705961,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2374],"tags":[143,47,2538,5,4,125,4010],"class_list":["post-711118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-baltimore-orioles","tag-baltimore","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-baltimoreorioles","tag-baseball","tag-mlb","tag-orioles","tag-top"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116652933360040237","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=711118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711118\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/705961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=711118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=711118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=711118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}