![\"JJ](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1780034596_116_0x0.jpg\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
JJ Bleday is having a career year at the plate.<\/p>\n
MLB Photos via Getty Images<\/p>\n
Sadly, with two incorrect MLB best home run bets on May 18, the dry spell extended to seven straight duds. It dropped the season\u2019s record for home run props to 8-34, with two no-bets for players who didn\u2019t play on those respective dates. <\/p>\n
The slide has nearly dried up the season\u2019s profits. Anyone who has bet $100 on all the MLB best home bets this year at the listed odds is up only $25. After two months of grinding home run props, sitting at nearly even money is unsatisfying, but it\u2019s better than being in the red.<\/p>\n
Home run props are challenging to pick successfully, hence their long odds. Cold streaks are part of the equation for home run bets. Still, calculated selections and line shopping \u2013 searching sportsbooks for the best available odds \u2013 can result in turning a profit. The following two home run props offer bettors the best combination of odds of success and betting odds.<\/p>\n
MLB Best Home Run BetsJJ Bleday (Cincinnati Reds – OF)<\/p>\n
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400) at theScoreBet<\/p>\n
JJ Bleday<\/a> broke out with the Athletics in 2024, hitting a career-high 20 home runs with a 120 wRC+. He couldn\u2019t duplicate his success in 2025, but he\u2019s exploded in his first year in the Reds organization.<\/p>\n The left-handed-hitting outfielder has belted seven home runs in 27 games and 116 plate appearances. Bleday<\/a> has hit six of his seven homers in 2026 in 85 plate appearances against righties. <\/p>\n The 28-year-old outfielder has pristine batted-ball data. Among 261 qualified hitters<\/a> in 2026, Bleday is tied for 44th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.6%), tied for 52nd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.8%), tied for 45th in hard-hit rate (47.4%), tied for 58th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.2 mph) and seventh in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (43.6%). He\u2019s also done an outstanding job of lifting the ball, with the 15th-steepest launch angle (21.5 degrees).<\/p>\n Bleday\u2019s matchup is one of the best on today\u2019s MLB slate, as Grant Holmes has allowed 1.55 home runs per nine innings (HR\/9), the fourth-highest mark among today\u2019s probable starting pitchers<\/a>. The right-handed hurler<\/a> has allowed at least one homer in seven of his 10 starts this season, including three of his four road starts. Holmes has also allowed two homers in starts twice this season.<\/p>\n Bleday\u2019s odds to hit a home run tonight will also be enhanced by playing at home. Since 2025, Great American Ball Park\u2019s 120 park factor for homers<\/a> is the second highest in MLB. Bleday has an excellent chance of hitting a home run tonight, and his +400 odds are inviting.<\/p>\n Ben Rice has hit 16 home runs this season.<\/p>\n Getty ImagesBen Rice (New York Yankees – 1B)<\/p>\n Over 0.5 Home Runs (+328) at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/p>\n After opening the season with three straight starts without allowing a home run, Luis Severino<\/a> has allowed eight homers in eight starts. He\u2019s permitted a homer in his previous two starts, allowing three in total during those games. <\/p>\n Severino has allowed home runs in three of four starts at home, allowing two in each of those starts. Severino<\/a> has allowed 16 home runs to 481 batters at home at 1.35 HR\/9 at home since last season.<\/p>\n Unsurprisingly, Severino has struggled to keep the ball in the yard at home. Sutter Health Park has the third-highest park factor for homers (117) since 2025. <\/p>\n Ben Rice is equipped to take advantage of the matchup and homer-friendly park factors at Sutter Health Park. Rice\u2019s 16 home runs are the sixth-most in MLB in 2026<\/a>. He\u2019s hit 11 of his 16 homers<\/a> in 151 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.<\/p>\n Rice also has elite batted-ball data. Among qualified hitters this season, Rice is tied for 10th in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.2%), 12th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (17.6%), 13th in hard-hit rate (52.9%), tied for 27th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.3 mph) and tied for 18th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.2%). <\/p>\n Rice can add to his home run ledger tonight. His +328 odds are a bit chalky, but they\u2019re still too good to pass up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"JJ Bleday is having a career year at the plate. MLB Photos via Getty Images Sadly, with two…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":711654,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5,731,50,51375,27385,3385,5559,1952,4,722,62],"class_list":["post-711653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-baseball","tag-ben-rice","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-home-run-bets","tag-home-run-props","tag-home-runs","tag-homers","tag-jj-bleday","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting","tag-new-york-yankees"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116656354364398061","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=711653"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711653\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/711654"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=711653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=711653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=711653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}