{"id":713010,"date":"2026-05-30T19:42:16","date_gmt":"2026-05-30T19:42:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/713010\/"},"modified":"2026-05-30T19:42:16","modified_gmt":"2026-05-30T19:42:16","slug":"nolan-arenados-arizona-bounce-back-mlb-trade-rumors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/713010\/","title":{"rendered":"Nolan Arenado’s Arizona Bounce-Back – MLB Trade Rumors"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nolan Arenado<\/a>\u2018s no-trade clause was the most obvious obstacle for the Cardinals in their attempts to trade the third baseman during the last two offseasons, as Arenado (especially during<\/a> the winter of 2024-25) had a very short list of acceptable landing spots.\u00a0 It didn\u2019t help that Arenado was also owed a substantial amount of money, and St. Louis ended up eating $31MM of the $42MM remaining on the third baseman\u2019s contract once Arenado finally approved a trade to the Diamondbacks last January<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The bigger-picture issue hovering over the situation, however, was simply the fact that Arenado looked like a player in decline.\u00a0 After a superb 2022 season with the Cards that saw Arenado finish third in NL MVP voting, Arenado dropped down to a modest 107 wRC+ in 2023, then a 102 wRC+ in 2024, and then an ugly 84 wRC+.\u00a0 It was just the third time in Arenado\u2019s career that he had delivered below-average offense, with the other two instances being his 2013 rookie season with the Rockies, and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.<\/p>\n

Apart from an elite strikeout rate, Arenado\u2019s 2025 numbers were pretty ugly across the board.\u00a0 He hit .237\/.289\/.377 with 12 home runs over 436 plate appearances in what ended up as his final season in St. Louis, and his barrel and hard-hit ball rates each ranked only in the 12th percentile of all hitters.\u00a0 Arenado\u2019s numbers in those two categories were pretty similar in 2024, making it consecutive seasons of diminished power.<\/p>\n

On the plus side, Arenado\u2019s third base glovework was still strong, even if down from his Platinum Glove-winning prime years.\u00a0 So in swinging that trade with the Cardinals, the D\u2019Backs could at least count on Arenado for solid defense and a veteran voice in the clubhouse.\u00a0 Even if Arenado\u2019s bat was a question mark, it was a flier the Diamondbacks were willing to take given the modest $11MM price tag ($5MM in 2026, $6MM in 2027) and the fact that Arizona hadn\u2019t been able to land such third base targets as Alex Bregman<\/a> or Brendan Donovan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Through two months of the season, Arenado seems to have benefited from the change of scenery.\u00a0 The 35-year-old has turned back to the clock to some extent by hitting .275\/.357\/.462 with seven home runs over 196 PA, translating to a 130 wRC+.\u00a0 If Arenado can keep this going over a full year, the 130 wRC+ would tie the third-highest mark of his 14-year big league career.<\/p>\n

There was some thought that the move to Chase Field might spark Arenado\u2019s bat, and sure enough, he has done more damage in a more hitter-friendly home ballpark.\u00a0 Arenado has a .934 OPS across 94 home PA, as opposed to a .711 OPS in 102 PA away from Phoenix.<\/p>\n

His overall .360 wOBA is also notably higher than his .339 xwOBA, so some regression is probably inevitable (though .339 is still comfortably above the league average).\u00a0 Arenado still isn\u2019t making contact with much authority, as his barrel rate is only up to 6.5% from 4% in 2025, and his hard-hit ball rate has actually dropped from 32.6% last year to 31.9% this year.\u00a0 While he is still making plenty of contact, Arenado\u2019s 17.9% strikeout rate is on pace to be the second-highest of his career.<\/p>\n

When Arenado has squared the ball, however, he has capitalized.\u00a0 As per Statcast\u2019s launch angle sweet spot metric, Arenado\u2019s number is up to 38.4% this season, putting him in the 81st percentile of all batters.\u00a0 (Comparatively, Arenado\u2019s 31.5 LAS% in 2025 put in the 16th percentile.)<\/p>\n

All of this success comes after a very rough opening two weeks to the season, as Arenado started his D\u2019Backs tenure with a .392 OPS over his first 52 plate appearances.\u00a0 It was around this time that Arenado and the hitting coaches made some swing changes, with the third baseman telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic<\/a> that he was including too much head movement and not enough of his back hip while swinging.\u00a0 A new pregame routine was also introduced with the goal of, as Arenado put it, \u201ctrying to see shapes and pitches before I step in the box, so when I step in the box, it doesn\u2019t feel like it\u2019s the first time I\u2019m doing it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Time will tell if Arenado can keep this going over an extended period of time, though his hot streak has now been going for almost a month and a half.\u00a0 Arenado\u2019s production has basically offset an extended slump from shortstop Geraldo Perdomo<\/a>, and helped keep the Snakes in a wild-card position and a game behind the Padres for second place in the NL West.<\/p>\n

Even if Arenado does start to cool off, the D\u2019Backs don\u2019t need him to be the All-Star of his prime years \u2014 they just need him to produce like a $5MM player.\u00a0 Rather than looking like a plan B or C for the Diamondbacks\u2019 third base needs, the Arenado trade is now shaping up as a nice bargain for the Snakes, and one of the cannier moves of the Arizona offseason.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nolan Arenado\u2018s no-trade clause was the most obvious obstacle for the Cardinals in their attempts to trade the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":713011,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2290],"tags":[5,1028],"class_list":["post-713010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-baseball","tag-baseball","tag-nolan-arenado"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116665237061790677","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713010","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=713010"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713010\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/713011"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=713010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=713010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=713010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}